Section:GDN 1J PaGe:3 Edition Date:190821 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 20/8/2019 17:26 cYanmaGentaYellowbla
Wednesday 21 Au g u st 2019 The Guardian •
3
Michael
H Fuchs
A
s the UK races towards a potential
no-deal Brexit, President Donald
Trump is cheering it on. But Brexit- especially without a deal in place
with the European Union – would be
bad for the U S -UK special relationship
and would make the UK a much less
important U S ally.
The ramifi cations of Brexit – in particular without
a deal with the EU that pleases everyone – could be
explosive. It could hurt the UK economy at a time
when Trump’s trade war and economic policies are
increasing the risk of a global recession , and threaten
the very integrity of the UK amid growing signals
that Northern Ireland and Scotland would consider
breaking away. Boris Johnson appears willing to drive
Britain off this cliff come hell or high water, threatening
a no-deal Brexit and saying that the UK will leave the
EU by the end of October, “do or die ”. Everyone hopes
that the UK fi nds a way out of this mess, but the past few
years haven’t provided much evidence to believe that it
will end well.
Trump has long supported Brexit. He made that
support clear during his presidential campaign and has
expressed it repeatedly as president. Trump’s national
security adviser, John Bolton, now appears to be doing
what he can to ensure Brexit happens. When in the UK
recently, Bolton tried to incentivi se Brexit by dangling
the possibility of a trade deal with the US after the UK
leaves the EU, saying that the UK would be at the “front
of the trade queue” for a deal.
But that won’t happen. First, the politics in the US
right now mean that it is incredibly diffi cult to pass any
trade deals, even with America’s closest allies. Second,
and more important , U S congressional leaders have
already signalled that a deal would be dead on arrival
in Congress if Brexit aff ects the situation in Northern
Ireland. As the speaker of the House of Representatives,
Nancy Pelosi, said : “If Brexit undermines the Good
Friday accord, there will be no chance of a U S -U K trade
agreement passing the Congress.”
In fact, the reality of a post-Brexit U S -UK alliance
could be just the opposite of the false promises being
peddled by Trump and Bolton : the longer-term impacts
of Brexit could include a signifi cantly downgraded
Michael H Fuchs
is a senior fellow
at the Center
for American
ProgressJohn Bolton,
right, US
national security
adviser, with the
home secretary,
Sajid Javid
PHOTOGRAPH:
JAMES VEYSEY/REXrelationship between the two nations. It’s been a long
time since the UK was the global power it once was, but
it’s still a vital U S ally. From diplomatic cooperation at
the UN, to supporting the Iran nuclear deal, to working
together in Nato, there are endless examples of how a
strong alliance – and a strong UK – is in the U S interest.
But if the UK leaves the EU – especially without a
deal – its infl uence and power will decrease markedly.
It would no longer be able to infl uence EU decisions
on economic matters in a bloc that constitutes the
world’s second largest economy and with which the
U S traded $1.3tn in goods and services in 2018. It
would no longer be able to infl uence the EU position
on challenges such as Russia and China. If a no-deal
Brexit causes a rift within the UK by pushing Scotland
towards independence or undermining the Good Friday
agreement, it will have even less bandwidth to play a
positive role around the world. And if Brexit damages
the UK economy, it will likely mean a UK with less global
economic and military power.
While a post-Brexit UK is still likely to be one of the
world’s largest economies and will retain its seat on
the UN security council, it will be less important to U S
national security and economic interests. In addition, if
the UK and EU remain at odds over signifi cant economic
and political issues in the wake of Brexit, it could place
the US in an awkward position between close allies in
the UK and on the rest of the continent.
Furthermore, Brexit won’t make the serious policy
disagreements between the Trump administration
and the UK magically disappear. For instance, the two
have been at odds over the U S withdrawal from the
Iran nuclear deal and whether to allow the Chinese
telecommunications company Huawei to do business in
Britain. It seems unlikely that the Trump administration
would be willing to give the UK a break on those issues
in the event of Brexit – just look at the recent spat with
Britain over whether to release an Iranian oil tanker
detained in Gibraltar.W
hile some might believe
that Trump and Johnson’s
relationship as kindred
demagogic spirits could help
buoy the alliance in the wake
of Brexit, it should be clear
by now that the two leaders
are driven by their own
political interests and are willing to damage the special
relationship if it advances their own personal positions.
Trump has no interest in the U S -UK alliance – he’s an
agent of chaos, and supporting Brexit is yet another way
for him to upend international norms. Trump’s disdain
for allies should be fair warning to those who think the
president might be willing to off er fair trade terms to
Britain. As analyst Jeremy Shapiro points out, what we
know so far about the terms for a U S -UK deal “reveals
that it is very much an ‘America fi rst’ eff ort ”. Faith in
Trump to help a U S ally is misplaced. “ Our allies take
advantage of us far more than our enemies,” Trump said
at a recent rally.
If the current UK government believes that the US
will shower rewards on Britain in the wake of Brexit,
or that it will somehow bail Britain out, they’re wrong.
Many policymakers in America will stick with the UK
because of the long standing alliance, but it could be a
diminished alliance. And that would be bad for both
countries.Trump’s trade
promises are
hot air – his aim
is Brexit chaos
Opinion
Leaving the
EU won’t
make serious
disagreements
with the US over
issues such as Iran
magically disappear
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