ECONOMIC SITUATION: AGRICULTURE STALLED IN THE
FIRST QUARTER. GOOD WINE EXPORTS BUT FALLING
The first quarter of the year is usually the one that represents the smallest
share of the agri-food GDP (8%). And on the whole, the year for the agri-
cultural sector opened with + 0.1% added value compared to the previous
year. Employment increased (+ 5.3%) while the number of businesses has
diminished (– 0.7% to 742,000 units). Younger businesses at the end of
March were 53,400 (+ 2.1% on a year) and the phenomenon of growth
is evolving, Ismea informs in its Agrosserva report. There is, in any case,
more optimism among farmers: the confidence index grew by 2.4 points
on an annual basis, following a positive trend that began in the second
half of 2017. The food industry grows and there are signs of a production
recovery: + 1.3% of the index on 2018 compared to 0.8% of the manufac-
turing industry as a whole. A trend that is also reflected in agri-food ex-
ports, with the first quarter of 2019 which, thanks to an increase of 5.3%,
reaches €10.5 billion.
Wine, in this context, conditioned by contrasting elements at a global
level, rose again compared to 2018, selling out with 4.9 million hectoliters
(+ 8% on year). Despite an increase in values (+ 4%), according to Ismea
analysts, this is not a particularly positive number, given it derives from a
general decline in prices, especially for bulk wines. For bottled wine, the
decline is more limited. But it can be said, in general, that the increase in
export volumes and the increase in consumption in Gdo (+ 3%) "probably
will not be sufficient to absorb the increase in availability”. The record
harvest of 2018, in fact, has reached total volumes of 55 million hectoli-
ters (+ 29% compared to 2017) and it's difficult to place all the product on
the market. Considering still wines, the quarter has breached 2.5 million
hectoliters of exports (+ 6%): US demand is down (–2%), the German one
is up 13% and the United Kingdom's (with values at + 31%). The rush to
buy and stock up is linked to uncertainties connected to Brexit.
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GAMBERO ROSSO 13 JULY-AUGUST 2019NEWS