The Observer - 11.08.2019

• The Observer
  8 11.08.19 News

Politics

The big Brexit question

• where will we be

by the end of the year?

Are we heading for a

Halloween no-deal

Brexit? Will there be a

snap election, and who

will win it? Figures on

left and right, and from

the worlds of the arts

and science, predict

Britain’s immediate

political future

I doubt anyone knows what will happen,

but here’s my insanely optimistic plan to

counter the horrendous reality of BJ as

PM and the folly of our crashing out of

the EU without a deal.

I predict parliament will be pushed

into a corner by BJ and forced to pass

a motion of no confi dence. He won’t

accept it, so parliament will create

a caretaker government to revoke

article 50 and hold a general election.

Th e Lib Dems won’t want Corbyn,

and the Labour left won’t want

anyone tainted by austerity, so that

leaves us with the nationalists or

Caroline Lucas as PM. She can be the

trusted caretaker to pause the clock

on Brexit until a n election sorts out

whether we remain, leave or hold

another vote.

Th e new parliament will be full of

Green s and the Queen’s speech will

include proportional representation

and a zero-emission economy by

2030. Th ere will be other big ideas,
      like making clean air a legal right
      and creating an environmental
      enforcement body with real teeth.
      Heathrow, fracking and fossil-fuel
      subsidies will be replaced by smarter
      solutions. Th ere will be debates on
      a host of ideas for ending plastic
      pollution and dealing with the evils
      of low pay and in-work poverty.
      Everyone will heave a sigh of relief
      that the national infi ghting is over.

I don’t believe in surprise twists

any more. Despite the word

“unprecedented” being scattered over

our weekly plot twists, in tragedy

the end point is always inevitable.

It’s just the characters can’t see it, or

won’t. I’ve been guilty of this every

time I try to predict the outcome

of events.

Despite the series of

“unprecedented” circumstances

that led to Boris Johnson’s

“shocking” arrival at Downing

Street, I forget he has always been

going to end up there. I just kept not

wanting to accept it.

Th e EU will do as it’s said and not

reopen negotiations. Johnson will

commit to us leaving on Halloween

at any cost. Labour and the opposing

parties will call a motion of no

confi dence. It’s likely to be a couple

of votes short of passing, but being

this tight, Johnson and Dominic

Cummings may not want to risk it – or

the constitutionally unclear 14-day

period that follows. Cummings is a

campaigner who wants a campaign.

Th ey might call an election on their

own terms without the shame of

a no-confi dence defeat. And I’ll bet

Johnson returns the largest party. Th e

shock of leaving with no deal will have

the harmful impact that evidence has

long said it would.

In Avengers: Endgame, Th anos

says: “I am inevitable.” Although when

he clicks his fi ngers, the outcome is

the reverse. But that’s because the

Avengers could time travel, and start

again. But we can’t.

Ultimately, there must be some

accommodation between the UK

and the rest of Europe. Europe as

a whole is far bigger physically,

economically and culturally, than just

the UK but, nevertheless, the UK is

one of Europe’s largest economies,

a source of European culture and

science, joint home of a common

global language and the geographic

location of one Europe’s global cities

and fi nancial hubs: London. Many

things will persist, whatever the

accommodation – family ties, trade of

some sort, mundane interactions such

as electricity links to the high-minded

exchange of ideas. Science is one area

which is so international it will still be

collaborative whatever the situation.

Th e current Brexit context is

arguably only the latest act in a

longstanding process of detachment

of the UK from the EU, with the euro

opt-out being a far earlier concrete

act. But this act has been particularly

ugly. Brexit has been created and

driven almost entirely by internal

UK politics, and the majority of the

resolution of Brexit lies within the UK.

Can accommodation be reached? It is

certainly possible. But as the old west

of Ireland saying goes, I wouldn’t start

from here.

Expert panel

The Green

Baroness Jenny Jones

Green party member of

House of Lords

The playwright

James Graham, writer

of Brexit: An Uncivil War

The scientist

Ewan Birney

Director of the European

Bioinformatics Institute

amotiono

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James G

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