The Observer - 11.08.2019

• The Observer
  News 11.08.19 9

Boris Johnson’s premiership has

kicked off with a 10% poll lead – a new

prime minister bounce that typically

only lasts a few months. It’s hard to

see how we get to the end of the year

without an election, but the likely

result is harder to predict.

Johnson’s personal ratings are lower

than many recent PM’s starting scores

but comfortably ahead of Jeremy

Corbyn, whose scores are worse than

any previous leader of the opposition.

Much will depend on Brexit – 64%

say it is bad for their mental health

and 83% just want to stop seeing it

on the news every day. An election

on the back of a successful deal

could pave the way to a handsome

win for Johnson. However, no-deal,

supported by only 38% while 50%

oppose, looks a more likely outcome.

Against this backdrop, another hung

parliament seems a good bet.

Th e nation is gloomy: 60% feel

pessimistic about the year ahead.

Th e country has never felt more

divided, and our politicians have

never felt less able to manage the

task ahead. Some 74% believe

that “our politics is no longer fi t for

purpose”. Th e months ahead may

well prove them right.

I believe it is now increasingly likely

that we will leave the European Union

at Halloween. What has fundamentally

changed is that the previous prime

minister voted Remain and her heart

was never really in leaving the EU –

she saw Brexit as a damage-limitation

exercise rather than the great

opportunity it actually is.

By contrast, Boris Johnson voted

to leave, campaigned to leave, and

has staked his political f uture on our

leaving by 31 October “come hell or

high water”.

Furthermore, he has formed a

so-called “war cabinet” of people who

are committed to the Brexit project

and will help drive it over the line.

Given the events of the last three

years, I expect the remaniacs in

parliament to fi ght some desperate

rearguard action to overturn the

democratic wishes of the British

people – but I believe they will fail and

we will, therefore, leave on time, at

Halloween, and I look forward to seeing

the sunrise over a free country on the

morning of the fi rst of November.

Compiled by Josh Sandiford

The pollster

Deborah Mattinson,

founding partner at

BritainTh inks

The Brexiter

Mark Francois

Vice-chair of the European

Research Group

ON OTHER PAGES

PM’s plan to subvert democracy is

more dangerous than Brexit itself

Andrew Rawnsley, page 43

until the last minute. By that point,

consumers will go into a panic and

start stockpiling food, businesses

reliant on EU trade will start ramping

up the pressure and may even strike

to demonstrate their frustration, and

I think the UK will see the biggest

demonstrations in its history. Th e

government will then lose a vote of no

confi dence, attempt to schedule the

election after Brexit day, and a Labour

government will be formed will the sole

purpose of requesting an extension

from the EU.

Th is coalition will immediately fold

and the general election will go ahead

as planned. You’ll end up with a Lib-

Lab-SNP coalition by Christmas.

I suspect this government, steered by

Dominic Cummings from the cockpit of

Downing Street, will drive hard towards

no deal. Th eir gamble will be to try and

get the EU to blink, while assuming that

if that fails, an election soon after a no-

deal Brexit will mean that they claw

back Brexit party support.

However, no-deal will be felt much

sooner than we might expect. If it

is averted, it is likely that it won’t be

The student

Amatey Doku, former vice-

president of higher education,

National Union of Students

Swinson sets sights on

ministers’ safe seats as

Tory voters fl ee no deal

Party changes strategy

and chases funding in

anticipation of election

The Liberal Democrats are drawing

up an aggressive new election strat-

egy targeting more Conservative

seats, including that of foreign sec-

retary Dominic Raab, amid alarm

among senior Tories about the threat

posed by Jo Swinson’s party.

Research by the Lib Dems con-

ducted over the summer has con-

vinced offi cials to rip up the party’s

existing plans and adopt a more

ambitious targeting strategy after

concluding that it was on course to

win more than 70 seats – a result that

would represent its best ever return.

Tory former cabinet ministers

are among those now warning that

the arrival of Boris Johnson and his

acceptance of a possible no-deal

Brexit has opened up a huge oppor-

tunity. “The route the PM and [his

senior adviser] Dominic Cummings

have taken is really blind to the fact

that you’ve opened up this yawning

chasm in the centre of politics,” said

one. “The Lib Dems have always been

at their best in a crisis.”

The new research has also

prompted a scramble to raise the

resources necessary to fi ght a more

combative campaign. Swinson is

understood to have begun a drive to

win over new donors, including for-

mer Tory and Labour backers.

Surrey’s Esher and Walton, held by

Raab, is said to be among the most

ambitious seats on the radar, even

though he has a huge majority of

more than 2 3,000. The party is also

searching for high-profi le candidates

to fi ght prominent Tories. The actress

Emma Kennedy is said to be in the

running to take on cabinet offi ce min-

ister Michael Gove in Surrey Heath.

An internal memo from June, writ-

ten by the party’s campaigns direc-

tor, Shaun Roberts , said 76 seats were

thought winnable, and a further fi ve

percentage points swing brought

more than 200 seats into play. But

the party has slipped among some

pollsters since the memo was written.

“Of the fi rst 100 seats we can target,

most of these seats will come from the

Conservatives,” it stated. It called for

an immediate “expansion of our tar-

get seat list” and emergency selection

procedures to ensure candidates were

in place by the autumn. It told party

staff to “revise [the] general election

campaign plan” and ordered new

research to be conducted earlier than

planned at the start of September.

Insiders said there was also an

attempt to ensure a more diverse ros-

ter of candidates in winnable seats,

while attempts to build momentum

with further defections continue.

Several senior Tories said they

now had serious concerns about the

Lib Dem threat. One said it had been

raised at a meeting of Theresa May’s

cabinet, but largely dismissed as lack-

ing credibility. Some in vulnerable

seats believe they are being “written

off” as Downing St aims at the larger

prize of securing a majority by unit-

ing the pro-Brexit vote.

“There’s a really obvious home

[for moderate Tories] ... Look at

Winchester – it is hugely vulnerable,”

said the former cabinet minister. “It’s

the sort of city where people will say,

you know what, we don’t want to

leave the EU, we don’t like this hard-

right posturing of the likes of Dominic

Raab and Priti Patel. Her approach to

law and order goes down really badly.

These voters want to rehabilitate peo-

ple and get them out of prison.”

New research also suggests

Johnson faces losing key marginal

seats to the Lib Dems. A YouGov poll

of more than 1,200 voters in 20 seats

‘The route the PM

has taken is blind to

the fact it’s opened up

a yawning chasm in

the centre of politics’

Tory ex-cabinet minister

Michael Savage

Policy Editor

to be fought between the Lib Dems

and the Tories found a 14.1 percent-

age-point slump in Conservative sup-

port and an overall swing of more

than eight points to the Lib Dems

compared with the 2017 election.

The polling, commissioned by the

People’s Vote campaign for a second

referendum, covered constituencies

with the smallest Tory majorities

where the Lib Dems came second in

2017. Cheltenham, Richmond Park,
      Wells and Hazel Grove in Manchester
      would be among the seats to fall.
      Peter Kellner, past president of
      YouGov and a People’s Vote supporter,
      said: “This polling shows that, in the
      battleground seats, Boris Johnson’s
      hard line on Brexit is far from a deal
      sealer in any early election. Even
      before a campaign has begun the Lib
      Dems could expect to benefi t from
      enhanced coverage, and their tactical
      voting message will almost certainly
      gain traction. Jo Swinson’s party is
      well placed to make signifi cant gains
      at the Tories’ expense.”

Liberal Democrats

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