Bloomberg Markets - 08.2019 - 09.2019

A World of Carbon

Global coal power capacity, in megawatts

China

India

Other Asia

U.S.

Europe, Africa, and the Middle East

Rest of the world*

And now? Coal consumption won’t decline as significantly

as people think, says Shirley Zhang, Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s principal

Asia-Pacific coal analyst. On the one hand, annual global seaborne

coal trade probably peaked last year at 980 million tons. On the

other hand, from now to 2040, it will decline by only 20 million

tons, she says. Despite the rise of renewables, the roll call of govern-

ments adding coal-fired plants includes four of the world’s five most

populous nations: China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

In 2018, when global carbon emissions rose 2.9%—the

biggest jump in seven years—China, India, and the U.S. accounted

for two-thirds of the increase, according to BP Plc’s 2019 Statistical

Review of World Ener. As developed nations retired coal plants

producing 17 gigawatts of power, consumption and production of

coal advanced in Asia at the fastest rate in five years.

Which brings us back to Pakistan. On paper, it could be

one of Asia’s top economies. Twice the size of California, Pakistan

is home to more than 200 million people between the icebound

peaks of the Karakorum and the shores of the Arabian Sea, most

of them in the fertile valleys of the Indus River and its tributaries

that run down the center of the country. But it’s hobbled by

corruption, political turmoil, terrorism, and poverty. In July,

shortly after the country got its 22nd bailout from the

International Monetary Fund, the central bank raised its base

2018

0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2.0m

2000

At Port Qasim, smoke from an older oil-fired power station (right) drifts across a newer plant that burns imported coal

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