The Wall Street Journal - 17.08.2019 - 18.08.2019

A6| Saturday/Sunday, August 17 - 18, 2019 ** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

cused of being a currency ma-

nipulator. The U.S. has

expanded its military presence

to even tiny Pacific islands,

seeking to block Beijing’s ef-

forts to lay broader claims to

maritime territory.

The U.S. has terminated a

missile-disarmament treaty

with Russia, and Secretary of

Defense Mark Esper earlier

this month voiced hopes to de-

ploy midrange missiles in

South Korea and Japan. The

U.S. maintains economic sanc-

tions against Russia for its oc-

cupation of Ukrainian territory

and says Moscow has meddled

in U.S. elections.

U.S. officials have repeat-

edly labeled China and Rus-

sia’s growing military bond

and regional ambitions as a

chief security threat. In a pub-

licly disclosed June policy pa-

per, the Pentagon said Chi-

nese-Russian cooperation is

increasing and that the two

countries are seeking to ren-

der the U.S. a weaker and less

influential power.

As the U.S. moves to coun-

ter that threat, China and Rus-

sia are saying they have no

choice but to be more aggres-

sive, said Kim Jina, a research

fellow at the Korea Institute of

Defense Analyses, a Seoul-

based government think tank.

The two countries’ war-

planes have also entered

Japan’s air-defense zones hun-

dreds of times in recent years,

though the frequency of such

actions has slowed. Japan’s

A Chinese H-6 bomber flying over the East China Sea in a photo taken by Japan Air Self-Defence.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

President Trump met with
his top national security advis-
ers Friday to consider a deal
with the Taliban that could lead
to the withdrawal of most U.S.
forces from Afghanistan and
the end of America’s longest
military engagement abroad,
U.S. officials said.
Mr. Trump in a tweet after

the meeting said the U.S. is
“looking to make a deal—if
possible.”
Joining the president at his
New Jersey golf resort were
Vice President Mike Pence, Sec-
retary of State Mike Pompeo,
Central Intelligence Agency Di-
rector Gina Haspel, Defense
Secretary Mark Esper, Marine
Gen. Joe Dunford, the chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, na-
tional security adviser John
Bolton and Zalmay Khalilzad,
the U.S. special envoy leading
the peace talks.
“In continued close coopera-
tion with the Government of
Afghanistan, we remain com-
mitted to achieving a compre-
hensive peace agreement, in-
cluding a reduction in violence
and a cease-fire, ensuring that
Afghan soil is never again used
to threaten the United States or
her allies, and bringing Afghans
together to work towards
peace,” Mr. Pompeo said in a
statement.
Mr. Khalilzad, an Afghan-
born veteran diplomat, is to
travel to Qatar’s capital as soon
as this weekend to finalize de-
tails of an agreement with the
Taliban.
Such an accord, U.S. officials
say, would pave the way for ne-
gotiations between the insur-
gents, the Kabul government
and other Afghans on future
political arrangements in the
country and could lead to the
end of the nearly 18-year war.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly
disparaged U.S. military in-
volvement overseas, and his
impatience—as well as next
year’s presidential elections—
has spurred Washington’s nego-
tiations with insurgents, who
control more territory than at
any point since a U.S.-led inva-
sion forced them from power in

2001. In June, Mr. Pompeo said

Washington hoped for a peace

deal with the Taliban before

Sept. 1.

Earlier this year, the U.S.

said it had reached a “frame-

work deal” with Taliban negoti-

ators in the Gulf state of Qatar,

under which U.S. and other for-

eign forces would withdraw

from Afghanistan in exchange

for pledges from the Taliban to

prevent Afghanistan from be-

coming a base for transnational

terrorism.

Since then, negotiators from

both sides have struggled over

the details of the accord.

Among the sticking points

have been whether and how

many U.S.-led coalition troops

would stay in Afghanistan to

conduct counterterrorism oper-

ations, the pace of the draw-

down of troops that were dedi-

cated to battling the Taliban

and training Afghan security

forces, and how long the coali-

tion would remain in Afghani-

stan, people briefed on the

talks said.

There are about 14,000 U.S.

troops in Afghanistan. Roughly

half are involved in counterter-

rorism operations and support

for U.S. air operations.

The talks in Doha have oc-

curred against a backdrop of

deep mistrust on both sides. In

turn, that has led to a debate

about how much detail to in-

clude in any agreement.

The Pentagon has sought

very specific terms, in particu-

lar concerning the Taliban’s ob-

ligations under the accord and

the penalties for failing to meet

them, the people briefed on the

talks said.

Army Gen. Mark Milley, who

will succeed Gen. Dunford as

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of

WORLD NEWS

“Nothing is agreed until ev-

erything is agreed,” Mr. Khal-

ilzad has said.

Any announcement of a U.S.-

Taliban deal is expected to in-

clude a location and schedule

for those negotiations, which

many Afghans and Western of-

ficials fear will clash with the

Afghan government’s plans to

hold presidential elections on

Sept. 28.

The Taliban have refused so

far to hold direct talks with the

Afghan government, which they

regard as illegitimate. U.S. offi-

cials say they will do so when

the troop withdrawal deadline

is settled.

A bombing at a mosque in

the Pakistani city of Quetta on

Friday served as a reminder of

the daunting obstacles ahead.

The attack in the Taliban

stronghold killed the younger

brother of the Taliban’s leader,

Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhun-

dzada, Pakistani security offi-

cials said. The officials de-

scribed the attack as an

attempt by the Afghan and In-

dian intelligence services to

sabotage the Afghan peace pro-

cess.

Critics of a prospective deal

said any agreement with the

Taliban amounts to defeat for

the U.S.-led effort, saying the

Taliban seek to reclaim control

of the country, not battle ex-

tremists or work with the Af-

ghan government as the U.S.

had hoped.

“The Taliban isn’t going to

lay down its arms and seek real

peace. It is going to use the

American withdrawal to free up

more resources to topple the

Afghan government and resur-

rect its Islamic emirate,” said

Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fel-

low at the Foundation for De-

fense of Democracies, who

studies Afghanistan.

There is no evidence, for ex-

ample, that the Taliban are

willing to share power with the

U.S.-backed Afghan govern-

ment, Mr. Joscelyn said. And

the Taliban and al Qaeda, which

was responsible for the Sept.

11, 2001, terrorist attacks, are

intertwined, he said.

Even before Friday’s meet-

ing, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.,

S.C.) warned against fully with-

drawing from Afghanistan, say-

ing on Twitter that a bad deal

could be the equivalent of put-

ting extremism “on steroids.”

—Saeed Shah in Islamabad

and Gordon Lubold,

Andrew Restuccia

and Courtney McBride

in Washington

contributed to this article.

Trump, Advisers Discuss Taliban Deal

An agreement with

insurgent group could

lead to U.S. withdrawal

from Afghanistan

OMAR SOBHANI/REUTERS

Staff next month, recently told

the Senate Armed Services

Committee that the continued

presence of American forces in

Afghanistan is necessary for a

successful deal and that any

premature withdrawal of forces

from the country would be a

“strategic mistake.”

The Taliban have insisted

that all U.S. military personnel

must leave the country, but the

U.S. has said it wouldn’t fully

withdraw its forces unless it

was assured that Afghanistan

wasn’t a haven for al Qaeda, Is-

lamic State and other Islamist

groups to conduct terrorist op-

erations abroad.

The U.S. has instead called

for a conditions-based with-

drawal.

Besides Taliban security

guarantees and a timeline and

conditions for the withdrawal

of foreign forces, any compre-

hensive Afghan peace deal also

will require the negotiations

among Afghans about a cease-

fire and power-sharing.

ALongCommitment

U.S. troops deployed to Afghanistan

since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Sources: Brookings Institution; U.S. military

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

thousand

2002 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’

There are about

14,000 U.S. troops

in Afghanistan

By Nancy A. Youssef

in Washington and

Craig Nelson in Kabul

mand-and-control plane—fly-
ing with Chinese nuclear-capa-
ble bombers—darted into
South Korean airspace, which
by international convention
extends 12 nautical miles be-
yond the coastline. Seoul re-
sponded by deploying 18 jet
fighters and firing hundreds of
machine-gun rounds.
Until the incident last
month, the warplanes’ forays
hadn’t pierced South Korea-
claimed territory. But they
have breached its self-desig-
nated air-defense zone, which
extends scores of miles further
into surrounding waters.
China’s warplanes have en-
tered South Korea’s air-de-
fense zones about 30 times
this year, according to Seoul
officials familiar with the mat-
ter. The number of such mis-
sions totaled 140 last year and
77 in 2017, they said.
Meanwhile, Russian war-
planes have breached those
zones about 14 times so far
this year, the people said, at a
quicker pace than the 15 such
instances last year and six un-
dertaken in 2017.
The Chinese and Russian
flight totals haven’t previously
been reported.
“What China and Russia
fear most is U.S. military
power, and as an extension,
the military strength of South
Korea and Japan,” said Wi
Sung-lac, Seoul’s former am-
bassador to Moscow.
To Moscow and Beijing, the
list of grievances against
Washington is growing, ex-
perts say. President Trump has
levied trade tariffs on exports
from China, which the Trea-
sury Department recently ac-

Continued from page A

Airspace of

Seoul, Tokyo

Challenged

decadeslong military alliance

with the U.S., and its territo-

rial disputes with Beijing and

Moscow in nearby waters, ap-

pear to have motivated the air

patrols, experts say.

Cheon Seung-whun, a former

South Korean security official,

said the shifting pattern of Chi-

nese and Russian military pa-

trols was designed to compli-

cate the relationship between

Tokyo and Seoul.

The recent Russian plane in-

trusion into South Korean air-

space occurred in the waters

between South Korea and

Japan, where the two U.S. allies

have engaged in a longstanding

territorial dispute.

Tokyo said the plane’s flight

path crossed into Japanese

territory and that its own

fighters should have responded

instead of South Korea’s. South

Korea dismissed Japan’s asser-

tion, saying the islets near

which the Sino-Russian patrol

traveled were its territories.

Such disputes could further

sour Japan-South Korean rela-

tions, which have sunk to their

lowest level in decades amid

an escalating trade fight.

“China and Russia are try-

ing to poke holes in the U.S.-

Japan-South Korea security

system,” Mr. Cheon said.

Although some senior Seoul

officials have preferred to

view Beijing and Moscow as

partners able to help persuade

Pyongyang dismantle its nu-

clear weapons, many also qui-

etly harbor suspicions about

their larger neighbors.

The recent increase in pro-

vocative military patrols has

brought those worries to the

surface, people familiar with

the matter said, sparking first-

time internal discussions within

the South Korean government

on whether it should react with

more force, to what it sees as

signs of rising Chinese and

Russian aggression.

“It’s a concern, definitely,”

said one of those people.

“These patrols are not simple

mistakes.”

150

0

50

100

2016 ’ 17 ’ 18 ’ 19 **

CHINA

TAIWAN

East

China

Sea

SeaofJapan

(EastSea)

SOUTH JAPAN

KOREA

RUSSIA

N. KOREA

Shanghai

200 miles

200 km

Air-defensezones*

China

South Korea

Japan

China Russia

Ulleungisland Feb. 27, 2018

A Chinese warplane flies 30 miles

northwest of the island. South Korea

scrambles fighters.

LiancourtRocks† July 23, 2019

A Russian command-and-control aircraft

flies into Seoul-administered airspace,

drawing fire from South Korean fighters.

Patrolsnearorintoair-defensezone

claimedbySouthKorea

ContestedSkies

Chinese and Russian military patrols around the Korean Peninsula are on the rise.

*Approximate †Administered by South Korea as Dokdo; claimed by Japan as Takeshima **As of July 30

Sources: Xinhua; defense ministries of China, South Korea and Japan; Japanese foreign ministry; staff reports

1

2

1

2 WASHINGTON—The Trump

administration has decided to

sell billions of dollars’ worth

of F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan,

according to people familiar

with the matter, in a move

likely to anger Beijing.

The State Department has

begun informing staffers on

congressional committees but

has yet to formally notify Con-

gress of the possible sale. A

State Department official de-

clined to comment on terms of

a potential sale before official

congressional notification, in

keeping with department pol-

icy.

Republican and Democratic

lawmakers expressed support

for the sale. Reps. Eliot Engel

(D., N.Y.) and Michael McCaul

(R., Texas), the chairman and

ranking member on the House

Foreign Affairs Committee,

said in a joint statement the

move “sends a strong message

about the U.S. commitment to

security and democracy in the

Indo-Pacific.” Messrs. Engel

and McCaul said the possible

sale, which they predicted

would receive strong congres-

sional backing, would bolster

U.S.-Taiwan ties and deter in-

terference by Beijing.

Senate Foreign Relations

Committee Chairman Jim Risch

(R., Idaho) said: “These fight-

ers are critical to improving

Taiwan’s ability to defend its

sovereign airspace, which is

under increasing pressure from

the People’s Republic of China.”

China sees Taiwan as a

breakaway province and has

never renounced the use of

force to bring the self-ruled is-

land under its control.

BYCOURTNEYMCBRIDE

U.S. Moves

To Sell

Fighter Jets

To Taiwan

U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad

will travel to Doha, Qatar, as

soon as this weekend. At top,

U.S. troops in Logar province,

Afghanistan, in August 2018.

KARIM JAAFAR/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES