How do we predict
meteor shower intensity?
Most ‘predictions’ of the rate of meteors per hour during meteor showers are based on both
theory and observation. Essentially, a computer model is built containing the trajectories
of every known comet – since it is the debris from comets that forms the ‘stream’ of particles
we see during a meteor shower. This model contains information on the rate at which these
comets release material, along with the sizes, directions and velocities at which they are
released, as well as the gravitational forces that determine their subsequent trajectories through
space. The trajectory of the Earth and the conditions of the Earth’s atmosphere are also
inputted into the computer model. By watching how Earth moves through the meteor stream,
it is possible to estimate the likely number of meteors that will be visible during a given shower
for a given location. But different astronomers use different models. Plus, these models
are partly based on difficult measurements of the meteoric particles in the Solar System,
so their predictions are often only approximate. But, generally, they can be used to reliably
predict when a meteor shower is likely to be more or less intense than the average. AG22 April 2017ISTOCK| & ANSWERSQUESTIONS16 April 2017