The Washington Post - 20.08.2019

A10 EZ RE THE WASHINGTON POST.TUESDAY, AUGUST 20 , 2019

BY KARLA ADAM

london — Prime Minister Boris
Johnson has been in office less
than a month, and already Brit-
ain’s chattering classes are talk-
ing about his demise.
Johnson has promised to get
Britain out of the European
Union, with or without a Brexit
deal, in his first 100 days.
But can he remain at 10 Down-
ing Street beyond 119 days — the
tenure of the United Kingdom’s
most fleeting prime minister,
George Canning, who served
from April to August in 1827?
Perhaps. Theresa May sur-
vived in office for two years after
her first round of political obitu-
aries were written.
Here are three scenarios being
batted around for how Johnson
could go:

A no-confidence vote

Opposition Labour Party lead-
er Jeremy Corbyn has said he
would call for a no-confidence
vote against Johnson to stop an
abrupt “no-deal Brexit” — which
Johnson has said Britain must
prepare for and which econo-
mists say could lead to turmoil
on both sides of the English
Channel.
Corbyn could call for a vote as
early as the week of Sept. 3, when
members of Parliament return
from their summer recess. He
said he would introduce the
motion at an “appropriate very
early time” and “at a point when
we can win it.”
How realistic is a Johnson
loss? Well, he has a working
majority in Parliament of
just one seat, and a few lawmak-
ers from his Conservative Party
have indicated that they would
consider the nuclear option of
voting against their own govern-
ment if that were what it took to
avoid a no-deal Brexit. But there
are also independent lawmakers
and Brexit-backing politicians
from the Labour Party who
might support the prime minis-
ter in a no-confidence vote.

To let the hypothetical play

out, though: If Johnson lost,

lawmakers would have 14 days to

form an alternative government

that could command a majority

in the House of Commons. La-

bour’s John McDonnell suggest-

ed Corbyn should hop in “a cab to

Buckingham Palace to say, ‘We’re

taking over.’ ” He may not have

meant that literally, but Corbyn

would certainly try to win the

backing of the majority of law-

makers.

It’s unclear whether Corbyn or

anyone else could muster a ma-

jority. But if someone did, John-

son would come under extreme

pressure to resign.

Lose an election

Britain’s next general election

is scheduled for 2022, but there

are a few ways it could end up

with one much sooner.

If Johnson lost a confidence

vote and if no other viable gov-

ernment emerged in that two-

week window, Parliament would

be dissolved and an election

would be held 25 working days

later.

Alternatively, Johnson might

want to call an election of his

own volition — to strengthen his

mandate to push Brexit through

(if Parliament somehow man-

aged to block him) or to capital-

ize on any bounce after having

made Brexit happen. Either way,

he would no doubt like to im-

prove that one-seat majority.

Johnson has ruled out an

election before the Brexit dead-

line of Oct. 31. Some of his allies

have reportedly said he could set

a date for early November. Mi-

chael Gove, who is in charge of

no-deal Brexit planning, raised

eyebrows with his suggestion

that Nov. 1 should be a banking

holiday, to limit market panic in

the wake of no deal. Could that

be a date they’re eyeing for an

election? It would have the ad-

vantage of taking place before

voters feel the destabilizing ef-

fects of crashing out without a

deal to manage the withdrawal.

Corbyn has cried foul, nod-

ding to the convention that gov-

ernments don’t make major pol-

icy decisions during a general

election campaign. But Johnson

isn’t the most conventional poli-

tician.

So how might Johnson and his

Conservatives fare in an elec-

tion? Recall that Johnson has yet

to face the British electorate —

he was selected by a small con-

tingent of dues-paying members

of the Conservative Party, who

skew older, whiter and more

male.

Conservatives were trounced

in spring elections for the Euro-

pean Parliament and in local

races. But the latest YouGov

polling indicates support for the

party is up since Johnson be-

came prime minister.

Asked about hypothetical vot-

ing intentions, 31 percent said

Conservative, 22 percent said

Labour, 21 percent said Liberal

Democrat and 14 percent said

Brexit Party.

If Johnson could sell the idea

that Parliament was thwarting

his effort to deliver the Brexit the

people voted for, he might be

able to swing even more support

his way. But if he pursued a

no-deal Brexit and chaos ensued,

he could see his support evapo-

rate.

Sacked by the queen

One imagines that Queen Eliz-

abeth II wouldn’t want to touch

the hornet’s nest that is Brexit

with a 10-foot pole. The British

monarch is famously neutral

when it comes to all things

politics. Even when she obliquely

references Britain’s relationship

with the E.U., she does so in

a queenly, uncontentious way.

But there is speculation that

the 93-year-old monarch may get

sucked in.

Johnson has repeatedly re-

fused to say what he would do if

he lost a no-confidence vote. If

Corbyn or someone else formed a

viable alternative government,

and if Johnson still refused to

budge, then some say the queen

could effectively sack Johnson.

The queen “is not a decorative

extra,” Conservative Dominic

Grieve, a former attorney gener-

al, told the Times of London. “It’s

true she has sought to keep

herself well away from the cut

and thrust of politics, but at the

end of the day there are residual

powers and responsibilities

which lie with her. She might

have to dispense with his ser-

vices herself.”

David Howarth, a professor of

law and public policy at the

University of Cambridge, told

LBC Radio that the queen could

in theory fire Johnson but that,

more likely, Johnson would be

asked to step aside so as not to

“embarrass” her.

The last time a monarch inter-

fered with the choosing of a

prime minister was in 1834,

when King William IV dismissed

William Lamb. Six months later,

Lamb was reappointed as prime

minister, and he went on to

become one of Queen Victoria’s

closest advisers

Queen Elizabeth II is unlikely

to be losing any sleep over this

scenario at this point. She is

officially on holiday at Balmoral

Castle in Scotland.

But royal watchers say she

stays abreast of the news, which

this past weekend included this

front-page headline in the Daily

Telegraph: “Buckingham Palace

and Downing Street plan to keep

the Queen out of looming consti-

tutional crisis over Brexit.”

[email protected]

Bor-exit? 3 ways Johnson’s tenure could end quickly.

WILL OLIVER/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Britain must prepare for a “no-deal Brexit,” but Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has threatened a

no-confidence vote against Johnson to stop such a move. It’s unclear whether losing such a vote would prompt Johnson to resign.

‘No-deal Brexit’ fears

prompt speculation

about an ouster

BY KARLA ADAM

london — Buckingham Palace

said Prince Andrew is “appalled”

about the sex abuse claims against

Jeffrey Epstein, following the pub-

lication of images of the Duke of

York at the financier’s New York

home in 2010.

The palace statement came

hours after the Mail on Sunday

published video footage and imag-

es of Andrew at Epstein’s Manhat-

tan residence in which he is seen

looking out from a large door and

cheerfully waving goodbye to a

young woman.

“The Duke of York has been ap-

palled by the recent reports of Jef-

frey Epstein’s alleged crimes,” said

the statement emailed to The

Washington Post on Monday. “His

Royal Highness deplores the ex-

ploitation of any human being and

the suggestion he would condone,

participate in or encourage any

such behaviour is abhorrent.”

The footage was reportedly tak-

en in December 2010, when Ep-

stein was a registered sex offender

who had served time in jail. It was

known that Andrew had met with

Epstein around then — a picture of

the duo walking in Central Park

taken that December prompted

questions about Andrew’s judg-

ment. Shortly after the picture sur-

faced in 2011, Andrew quit his un-

paid job as a trade envoy.

But the video footage goes fur-

ther, showing the prince inside Ep-

stein’s home.

Some commentators pointed

out that Epstein had a criminal

record at the time.

“I literally don’t understand

this,” tweeted Jeremy Vine, a Brit-

ish broadcaster. “Prince Andrew

remained friends with Epstein

*after* his first conviction in 2008,

which was public and contained all

the elements he now says he’s ap-

palled by.”

Andrew’s connections to the fi-

nancier have come under fresh

scrutiny in the wake of the unseal-

ing on Aug. 9 of a cache of court

documents in a related defama-

tion case. Less than 24 hours later,

Epstein, who was in custody on

charges of sex trafficking, was

found dead in his prison cell. New

York City’s medical examiner ruled

his death a suicide by hanging.

The legal documents included a

photograph of the prince with his

arm around the waist of Virginia

Roberts, then 17, who said Epstein

paid her for sexual encounters

with the prince. The photograph

first appeared in the British media

in 2011.

Buckingham Palace doesn’t

usually comment on scandalous

accusations related to the royals’

personal lives — the typical ap-

proach is to raise the drawbridge

and simply say “no comment.” But

the palace has repeatedly issued

statements denying any wrong-

doing by Andrew.

Andrew has long been dogged

by questions about his friendship

with Epstein. The two reportedly

first met in the late 1990s, intro-

duced by Ghislaine Maxwell, a

British socialite who accusers say

played a role in procuring young

girls for Epstein. Maxwell has de-

nied the allegations.

According to the Sun tabloid,

Andrew was recently spotted in

Spain with ex-wife Sarah Fergu-

son. The two were married from

1986 to 1996. Ferguson also has

been criticized for her connections

to Epstein, having accepted

$18,000 from him to help pay off

her debts. She later called it a “gi-

gantic error of judgment.”

Andrew, 59, is not a particularly

popular member of the royal fam-

ily and has, over the years, drawn

attention for his playboy lifestyle —

before his marriage to Ferguson,

the British media had labeled him

“Randy Andy.”

Andrew is Queen Elizabeth II’s

second son. Royal watchers said

the queen was demonstrating sup-

port for Andrew when she was

pictured traveling with him to a

church service in Scotland Aug. 11.

[email protected]

Prince ‘appalled’ by Epstein reports

JANE BARLOW/PA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Britain’s Prince Andrew leaves a Sunday morning church service in Scotland on Aug. 11. The Mail

recently published video footage and images of Andrew at Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan home in 2010.

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