D2 EZ M2 THE WASHINGTON POST.TUESDAY, AUGUST 20 , 2019
BY BEN GOLLIVERWhether he realized it, U.S.
basketball coach Gregg Popovich
dumped kerosene on a long-running
Twitter debate with an off-handed
comment Friday night. In the moments
after the Americans beat Spain in a
FIBA World Cup tuneup, Popovich was
asked for his favorite basketball
statistic. In typical form, he responded,
gruffly, with his least favorite.
“Do they have plus-minus on these
like they do in the NBA?” he said while
glancing down at a box score. “I don’t
even look at that. Never looked at it. Just
because you don’t know who was in the
game at certain times, or you have a
weak lineup, or someone played badly
who helped someone else have a
negative game. It’s the last thing I look
at, if I do.”
For many basketball players and fans,
that assessment was a music-to-the-ears
rebuke of an analytics staple.
“Thank you,” Washington Wizards
guard Isaiah Thomas wrote on Twitter,
appending three exclamation points for
emphasis. “That s--- don’t mean
anything.”
There are plenty of reasons to
skeptically view a player’s plus-minus —
a measure of the game’s point
differential while he is on the court —
over a one-game sample size. But to
pooh-pooh plus-minus entirely,
especially after it has been carefully
fine-tuned by basketball-savvy
statisticians, would be a mistake.
Popovich listed a few common causes
of noisy results within a single game: A
player’s plus-minus can be greatly
affected by the play of one of his
teammates or one of his opponents, or
by the relative strength of a lineup.
Garbage time can skew results, as can a
brief run of exceptionally strong or poor
play.
When plus-minus critics scream
about the stat’s uselessness, they oftenturn to memorable outliers. It’s possible
for a player to have a sensational game
and still finish as a minus: When LeBron
James scored 51 points in Game 1 of the
2018 NBA Finals against the Golden
State Warriors, he posted a minus-13.
Labeling James as a “minus” during
such a classic performance feels
unrepresentative and unfair.
Once the sample size increases,
though, plus-minus can become
incredibly useful in identifying and
explaining value. Take Stephen Curry’s
absurd run from 2014 to 2019. During
that time, as the Warriors dominated
the NBA, Curry led the league in scoring
just once and posted point, rebound and
assist numbers that were excellent but
not as impressive as those of Russell
Westbrook or James Harden.
Meanwhile, Curry ranked first in
plus-minus four times in six years,
placing second and sixth leaguewide in
the other two seasons. By traditional
numbers, he was clearly an all-star. By
plus-minus standards, he was a
basketball god. Turning a blind eye to
Curry’s remarkable plus-minus run
could lead to all sorts of errors in
analysis. If one didn’t truly account for
Curry’s impact on winning, it would be
easier to paint him as “only a shooter,” to
misapply credit for his individual work
to the Warriors as a whole or even to sell
short Golden State’s dominance
throughout his prime.
Even big fans of plus-minus —
including ESPN’s popular “Real Plus-
Minus,” which seeks to adjust for the
quality of a player’s teammates and
opponents — will admit that it’s not a
perfect measure. Some players, such asKlay Thompson, consistently perform
worse by the measure than their
reputation would suggest. Others, such
as Danny Green last season, appear to
have a starlike impact despite being
merely effective role players.
Yet the five best Real Plus-Minus
performers last season finished in the
top five in MVP voting: Giannis
Antetokounmpo, Curry, Paul George,
Harden and Nikola Jokic. Across an 82-
game sample size, the stat reflected
perceived on-court value incredibly
well. Ignoring those results would be
foolish — especially in the case of Jokic,
whose value can be difficult to quantify
because he is not an elite scorer.
It’s worth noting that Thomas, a
onetime MVP candidate who has fallen
on hard times because of injury, ranked
453rd of 514 players by Real Plus-Minus
last season. One can hardly blame any
former star for disliking a metric that
views him as a fringe NBA player in
large part because of his poor defense.
The hard truth, though, is that the NBA
free agency market treated Thomas as
harshly as Real Plus-Minus, given that
he settled for a one-year minimum
contract with a lottery team this
summer.
This back-and-forth about plus-
minus is healthy, as long as Popovich’s
words aren’t misconstrued as an
invitation to discount a large, and
growing, field of work. There’s little
doubt that Popovich’s San Antonio
Spurs have used plus-minus data —
whether in the form of impact stats or
lineup analysis — to assist their
championship runs. And players such as
Thomas — talented scorers who happen
to be poor defenders — have good
reasons for publicly dismissing plus-
minus: The stat’s findings can cost them
playing time and contract dollars.
Impartial and curious basketball
observers, however, should welcome
good information in all of its forms.
[email protected]QUOTABLE“Right now,
all the players are
in a spot where they
don’t know what’s
going to happen.”
RICHARD SIMONCELLI,
a coach in the Call of Duty World
League. Activision is recasting the
circuit in a franchise-based mold,
similar to the Overwatch League.PRO BASKETBALL: ANALYSISStat is a positive, not a negative
SOCCERBY AVA WALLACEMegan Rapinoe isn’t one to shy
away from the media. She has
openly discussed everything from
her opposition to President
Trump to her cultural beliefs to
her relationship with WNBA star
Sue Bird as the spotlight on her
has intensified before, during and
after this summer’s World Cup.
Now the 34-year-old U.S. soccer
star has opened up again about
another subject that hits close to
home. In an extensive interview
with the Guardian published Sat-
urday, Rapinoe discussed how her
political and cultural beliefs play
into her relationship with her
more conservative family — in-
cluding her father, who she thinks
voted for Trump.
“I feel like I grew up with all of
these lessons [about equality], but
nothing was ever spoken,” Rapi-
noe said when asked whether she
was raised in a political house-
hold. “Both of my parents should
be really progressive — especially
my mom — and I don’t get that
they’re not. I’m always saying:
‘You guys should really be Demo-
crats!’ But they’re not, so what’s
happening?
“I’m very similar to how they
are, even though I think my dad
voted for Trump and I’ll say: ‘I
don’t get it. How are you simulta-
neously as proud as punch of me
and watching Fox News all the
time, [when they are doing] take-
downs of your daughter?’ That’s
why I’m like, ‘You guys need to go
to therapy.’ ”
Rapinoe said she has opened up
a family dialogue on politics.
“There’s been some major blow-
ups. There’s definitely been some
dust-ups,” she said. “I’m very close
to my family. It’s not like, ‘Ugh, I’m
from a conservative town, and I
never talk to them anymore.’ I talk
to my parents all the time, every
day. And I feel like I have seen
progress and growth. I would love
it if people understood you should
never say racist things and [you
should] be okay with gay people,
or whatever it is. But, obviously, it
doesn’t happen that quickly.”
Squaring her parents’ more tra-
ditionally conservative beliefs
with her own liberal ones, includ-
ing what Rapinoe describes as an
easy acceptance of her own sexual-
ity, is something the native Cali-
fornian has been navigating for
more than a decade.
Rapinoe said when she first
came out in college, her parents
were worried she was making life
harder for herself.
“At one point, my mom was
telling all her work friends: ‘Oh,
my daughters’ — because my sister
is gay, too — ‘Oh, the twins are gay,
blah blah blah,’ ” Rapinoe said.
“Meanwhile, their kids were drop-
ping out of high school and having
drug problems and doing all these
crazy things, and they were like:
‘You don’t have any problems! All
your kids are amazing. They’re
doing sport and getting their col-
lege paid for and doing great.’ ”
[email protected]On politics,
Rapinoe
doesn’t get
her parents
TELEVISION AND RADIO
MLB
2 p.m. Los Angeles Angels at Texas » MLB Network
7 p.m. Washington at Pittsburgh » MASN, WJFK (106.7 FM), WFED (1500 AM)
7 p.m. Kansas City at Baltimore » MASN2, WTEM (980 AM)
7 p.m. Philadelphia at Boston » MLB Network
10 p.m. New York Yankees at Oakland » ESPN
WNBA
7 p.m. New York at Indiana » NBA TV
10:30 p.m. Minnesota at Los Angeles » NBA TV
SOCCER
3 p.m. UEFA Champions League, playoff round (first leg): Ajax at APOEL » TNT
8:30 p.m. Copa Libertadores, quarterfinal (first leg): Palmeiras at Grêmio
» beIN Sports
8:30 p.m. Leagues Cup, semifinal: Club América vs. Tigres UANL » ESPN 2
10:30 p.m. Leagues Cup, semifinal: Cruz Azul at LA Galaxy » ESPN 2
TENNIS
11 a.m. USTA: U.S. Open qualifying, first round » ESPNews
11 a.m. WTA: Bronx Open, early rounds » Tennis Channel
3 p.m. ATP: Winston-Salem Open, early rounds » Tennis Channel
YOUTH BASEBALL
11 a.m. Little League World Series, consolation game: Bologna (Italy)
vs. Salem (Ore.) » ESPN
3 p.m. Little League World Series, elimination game: Maracaibo (Venezuela)
vs. Willemstad (Curaçao) » ESPN
6 p.m. American Legion World Series, final: Fargo (N.D.) vs. TBD » ESPNews
7:30 p.m. Little League World Series, elimination game: Elizabeth (N.J.)
vs. Barrington (R.I.) » ESPN
ATHLETICS
7 p.m. Aurora Games: Day 1, tennis » ESPNUBY MATT BONESTEELConor McGregor is in the news
again, and once again it has noth-
ing to do with anything he has
done in the octagon (a place he
has been only once since Novem-
ber 2016). Last week, TMZ pub-
lished a video that appeared to
show McGregor punching an old-
er man in the face after he turned
down a shot of McGregor’s Proper
No. Twelve whiskey, an April inci-
dent that led to an Irish police
investigation that reportedly still
is ongoing.
Sean Rice, owner of the Salty
Shamrock Irish Pub in Apollo
Beach, Fla., was not amused. Rice
hails from Omagh in County Ty-
rone in Northern Ireland and was
dismayed to see an Irishman act
in such a brutish fashion, so he
decided Proper No. Twelve would
have no place in his bar and
discarded his remaining bottles
by flushing their contents down
the toilet.
“Due to the recent cowardly
and appalling behavior of the so-
called Irish professional fighter
Conor McGregor, the Salty Sham-
rock Irish Pub will no longer carry
his product nor associate its busi-
ness with his name,” Rice wrote
on Facebook. “We will discard his
whiskey in a fashion thats only
fitting to his behavior. I challenge
every Irish bar owner to do the
same! He is not a true representa-
tive of the Irish people.”
“Sorry folks, that’s just how I
felt about a so-called Irishman
punching an old man in a bar,”
Rice said at the end of the video.
“Disgusting behavior. Slainte, see
ya!”
Proper No. Twelve launched in
2018 and reportedly has sold well
despite middling reviews.
McGregor has had time to focus
on his whiskey business because
he hasn’t done much fighting in
recent years, apart from his box-
ing match against Floyd May-
weather Jr. in 2017 and a submis-
sion loss to Khabib Nurmagome-
dov at UFC 229 in October.
After TMZ aired the pub video
last week, UFC President Dana
White called it a “pretty bad” look
but seemed to suggest McGregor
simply is biding his time until he
returns to the cage.
[email protected]
MIXED MARTIAL ARTS
Countering
McGregor,
pub flushes
his whiskey
QUINN ROONEY/GETTY IMAGES
Gregg Popovich, coach of the U.S. basketball team, said of plus-minus: “I don’t even look at that. Never looked at it.”Popovich has a point,
but plus-minus provides
some valuable informationwashingtonpost.com/sports
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Oklahoma, Ohio State
name top quarterbacks
No. 4 Oklahoma named Jalen
Hurts its starting quarterback for
its Sept. 1 season opener against
Houston.
Hurts played in three College
Football Playoff championship
games for Alabama and helped
the Crimson Tide win the 2017
title. He transferred to Oklahoma
in January and won the job over
redshirt freshman Tanner
Mordecai and true freshman
Spencer Rattler.
Hurts started during the 2016
and 2017 seasons and led
Alabama to a 26-2 record. He lost
the starting job to Tua Tagovailoa
in 2018 but still played 13 games.
He replaced the injured
Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter
of the 2018 SEC title game and
rallied the Crimson Tide to a 35-
28 victory over Georgia....
Ohio State Coach Ryan Day
made official what most people
figured was a foregone
conclusion: Georgia transfer
Justin Fields will be the starting
quarterback when the No. 5
Buckeyes open the season Aug. 31
against Florida Atlantic.
Day brought in the talented
sophomore in January to succeed
Dwayne Haskins, and Fields
practiced with the starters from
the moment he arrived.
His main competition was
Gunnar Hoak, a graduate
transfer from Kentucky who got
to campus this summer and is
still learning the playbook....
Former Wisconsin wide
receiver Quintez Cephus was
cleared to return to school after a
jury acquitted him of sexual
assault charges, but it was unclear
when he will be eligible to play in
a game.
The school announced
Chancellor Rebecca Blank’s
decision in a statement that said
the university had obtained
information that wasn’t provided
during a student conduct review.
The statement said sanctions
against Cephus were “reduced”
and his expulsion had been lifted,
though some conduct violations
were upheld.
Coach Paul Chryst has said he
would welcome Cephus back.SOCCER
The U.S. men national team’s
home game against Cuba in the
first Concacaf Nations League
will be played at Audi Field on
Oct. 11.
The site was announced by theU.S. Soccer Federation, which has
yet to say where the Nov. 15
home match against Canada will
be played.
As part of the tournament, the
United States will play Canada on
Oct. 15 in Toronto. The Americans
will close Nov. 19 against Cuba, a
game that may be played in
George Town, Cayman Islands.
In its first year under Coach
Gregg Berhalter, the United
States has eight wins, three losses
and one tie, and it lost to Mexico
in the final of the Concacaf Gold
Cup last month....
Paul Pogba pulled his jersey
over his face when the final
whistle sounded, his latest spot-
kick failure costing Manchester
United two points and casting
doubt on the wisdom of the team
rotating its penalty-takers.
The French midfielder had his
68th-minute attempt saved — his
fourth penalty miss in the past
year — and United had to settle
for a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton
in an English Premier League
match.
Pogba won the penalty after
being tripped by Wolves defender
Conor Coady and opted to take
the kick himself after talking with
Marcus Rashford, who
converted a penalty in United’s
4-0 win over Chelsea on theopening weekend of the 2019
season.MISC.
U.S. captain Tiger Woods
wants the eight players who
qualified for the Presidents Cup
team and those auditioning for a
captain’s pick to play
tournaments over the next three
months ahead of the mid-
December matches in Australia.
Woods did not say how many
tournaments players should
enter, and he was vague about
whether it applies to him if he
picks himself for the team. He
plans only to play the new PGA
Tour event in Japan in late
October.
The eight qualifiers include
Patrick Cantlay and Xander
Schauffele, who have never
played in a cup as pros....
Dale Earnhardt Jr. said his
family is “truly blessed” that
nobody was seriously injured
when his plane crash-landed last
week in Tennessee.
The retired NASCAR driver,
now a television analyst, issued a
statement on social media
praising the “quick response of
my pilots, local law enforcement,
emergency personnel and
hospital staff.” He thanked people
for their phone calls, messages ofsupport and prayers.
Investigators said the plane
carrying Earnhardt and his
family bounced multiple times
during a crash-landing Thursday
in Elizabethton and veered off the
runway before ending up on a
highway....Phoenix Mercury guard Diana
Taurasi was cleared to play after
missing most of the season with a
back injury....
The Colorado Avalanche
agreed to a one-year contract with
forward Valeri Nichushkin.
— From news servicesDIGEST