The Daily Telegraph - 16.08.2019

The Daily Telegraph Friday 16 August 2019 *** 15

S

o far, Boris Johnson’s efforts to

bolster his position as Prime

Minister have focused on just

three campaigning issues – Brexit,

crime and the National Health Service.

These are the things voters seem to

care about most so, as quick political

hits, it makes obvious sense.

But to make a deep impact on

history, governments must rise

above the demands of short-term

political triangulation and set their

sights on the distant horizon. One

such opportunity is in the seemingly

routine business of infrastructure

renewal. Like defence and education,

infrastructure spending ought to

be a matter of course. Yet in recent

decades it has been sadly neglected.

It is always the first to be cut, and

usually the last to be raised, leaving

the UK trailing badly on the basics for

a competitive modern economy.

This may be about to change. The

economic and financial stars have

rarely, if ever, been more perfectly

aligned. If he survives, Mr Johnson

must seize the chance to turn the tide.

Not that he needs much persuasion.

One thing Boris shares with the

French is a deep love of “les grands

projets”. Pet proposals include a four-

runway airport in the Thames estuary

and a bridge that links Scotland with

Northern Ireland. Vanity projects

such as these might sensibly wait.

Yet the wider case for much higher

levels of government capital spending

is unarguable, and with a global

downturn looming, fast becoming a

matter of macro-economic necessity.

During his leadership bid,

Sajid Javid pledged a £100-billion

infrastructure fund on top of the

steady rise in capital spending already

pencilled in. He has also proposed

that an additional £50 billion be spent

on social housing. Now Chancellor,

Mr Javid has the chance to put his

ideas into practice.

Those who wonder where all the

money is going to come from will be

pleased to learn that there is indeed

such a thing as a “magic money tree”.

It’s called the bond markets, which

of late have made it possible for

the Government to borrow 10-year

money – roughly the maturity

needed for sensible infrastructure

planning – for next to nothing.

There is something else unusual

about today’s bond markets, a

phenomenon known as a “yield curve

inversion”. Returns on longer-dated

maturities are normally rather higher

than on short-term debt, to reflect the

risk of holding the debt for longer.

But in both the US and the UK, this

relationship has reversed, making it

cheaper to borrow long-term than

short. Investors in government debt

markets are in essence betting that

growth, inflation and interest rates

will be lower in future than they

are now. In past inversions, these

assumptions have generally turned

out to be correct. Recession almost

invariably follows soon after.

This is more than just mumbo-

jumbo tea-leaf reading; in most cases,

inversions are a symptom of genuine

recessionary pressures. As business

investment falls, it creates a surplus

of money with nowhere to go except

into supposedly ultra-safe government

bond markets, where yields become

depressed. Falling investment is

likely to create a recession.

In these circumstances, it becomes

incumbent on the government to

step into the breach, so as to replace

the demand that the private sector

is withdrawing. The problem is

made worse in the UK by Brexit

uncertainty, which has caused

business investment to soften further.

As things stand, bond markets are

screaming at governments to borrow.

It would be a shame to disoblige.

Unfortunately, it takes time to

ramp up infrastructure spending. You

cannot simply turn on the taps, and

expect work to begin immediately. The

number of “shovel-ready” projects is

bound to be limited after such a long

hiatus. Yet there are things that can

be brought on track relatively quickly

• correcting the growing scourge of

The PM would be mad not to build, build, build

The bond markets have

gifted the Tories a massive

opportunity to renew our

creaking infrastructure

JEREMY WARNERR

Y

esterday was meant to be Jo

Swinson’s day in the sun: she would

call for a government of national

unity and unveil the latest convert

to the Liberal Democrats, ex-Tory MP

Sarah Wollaston. But Jeremy Corbyn

ruined things by announcing that he would be

happy to lead said government.

At first Ms Swinson said “nonsense”, but several

groups, including the Greens and SNP, demanded

to know why. After some thought, Ms Swinson

announced she would “offer to meet” Mr Corbyn

to talk things over.

If it all seems curious, that’s because it is

disingenuous. Ms Swinson is right: Mr Corbyn

made his dramatic offer perfectly aware that he

probably can’t form a cross-party government:

he can’t even guarantee the support of his own

MPs. The Greens and SNP are happy to talk with

him, however, because it makes them look a bit

like kingmakers. And Ms Swinson is reluctant to

elevate Mr Corbyn not out of any great concern

for the country but because she doesn’t want to

surrender a crown she has only just claimed: leader

of the Remain movement.

Meanwhile, wandering around the battlefield,

the hardcore Tory Remainers are in search of a

general. Some of them are actually prepared to put

Mr Corbyn in No 10. Guto Bebb MP told journalists:

“A short-term Jeremy Corbyn government is less

damaging than the generational damage that

would be caused by a no-deal Brexit.”

This translates as “a socialist government would

be preferable to my own party’s policy” – a policy

found on page 36 of the manifesto that Mr Bebb

stood on in 2017 (“no deal is better than a bad

deal”). How can Conservative MPs openly reject

Boris Johnson’s programme and retain the whip?

The answer is “so long as there is only a majority of

one”. The obvious solution is a general election

And what would happen to the Tory Remainers

then? Some apparently want to run again. But

how can they if the Conservative manifesto – even

more explicitly this time – commits candidates to

backing Mr Johnson’s no-deal threat?

It is obvious that old party boxes are struggling

to contain Brexit, that people are questioning

lifelong allegiances, and if they are truly motivated

by principle, then there is something rather

admirable about their existential crisis. But MPs

will not be the only ones rethinking their loyalties.

The voters will be doing just the same.

Lifelong allegiances

are all up for grabs

T

he osprey gets about. We may think of one

swooping on trout in a Scottish loch or on

mullet from a rocky haunt in Corsica, but

the birds range from Alaska to Uruguay, from

China to South Australia. British ospreys make an

astonishing annual migration of more than 4,

miles to West Africa, across the Mediterranean, the

Atlas Mountains and the Sahara. It is this perilous

autumn journey that Sasha Dench means to follow

by powered paraglider – suspended below a wing

with a motor on her back. It sounds impossible, but

she has already taken the route of Bewick’s swans

to Britain from the Russian Arctic. Following the

osprey, she will have to stop to refuel, just as they

do with fish en route. From a human swan she will

become a human osprey. Human enterprise is at its

bravest when reaching beyond natural capability.

Becoming an osprey

T

here is no equivalence between the

detention of the Grace 1 and the seizure of

the Stena Impero. The Iranian tanker Grace 1

was stopped by Royal Marines off Gibraltar on July

4 on suspicion of intending to supply 2.1 million

barrels of oil to Syria in breach of EU sanctions.

This was an entirely legal move: a police operation.

Unfortunately, it prompted an illegitimate

response by the Iranians. On July 19, the Iranians

seized control of the British flagged ship Stena

Impero as it sailed through the Strait of Hormuz

• an act of piracy.
  Grace 1 has now been released from Gibraltar
  and, if the Iranians do respond in kind, the world
  must not see any validation of their argument
  that they were justly performing like-for-like, ie
  “you take our ship, we take yours; you release our
  ship, we release yours.” This is not how serious
  states behave. If, say, a Briton were arrested
  for a potential crime in France, the British
  Government would not take a French tourist
  hostage in retaliation.
  In the case of Syria, any regime even thinking of
  bankrolling Bashar al-Assad would be providing
  support to a bloodthirsty dictator. Alas, this is part
  of Iran’s modus operandi. The theocratic regime is
  turning into a regional imperialist, extending its
  reach from Syria to Yemen to Iraq.
  The West is right to correct Iran’s ambitions, be
  it with sanctions or a US-led coalition patrolling the
  seas off Iran and Yemen. If the price of vigilance is
  greater military preparedness, that’s an argument
  for more money to be spent on UK defence –
  because we cannot allow trade to be interrupted or
  lives to be put in peril. Global Britain is going to
  have to be a far more active power in the Gulf.

Unstately standards

established 1855

potholes in our roads, rail upgrades

and strengthening our flood defences.

Boris Island may have to wait, but a

fair amount of social infrastructure

spending – schools, hospitals, libraries

• can swiftly be brought on stream.
  There is also no reason why spending
  on superfast broadband cannot be
  accelerated. Further out, there is the
  huge challenge of decarbonisation,
  including carbon capture, nuclear
  renewal, and the infrastructure needed
  for electric vehicles.
  All these things are likely to require
  very considerable public participation
  or subsidy. It has never been easier
  or less costly for the Government
  to borrow. If it is for the purpose of
  investment in the country’s future,
  there is no reason why, in the absence
  of private sector demand, the public
  balance sheet shouldn’t be used.
  Keynesian mumbo-jumbo? Time
  was when it would be anathema for
  the Tories to let rip in such a way. It
  was always their unfortunate lot to
  have to clean up after Labour’s messes.
  But political positions and allegiances
  have become all mixed up. This is not
  a time for parsimony. Both the politics
  and the economics say that the Tories
  should brand themselves the party of
  big infrastructure spending. They’d
  be mad to refuse the gift that bond
  markets are offering.

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Letters to the Editor

SIR – John Bercow and his like are the

principal impediment to us achieving

a deal with the EU.

Why should the EU’s negotiators

agree to one when these people are

supporting them in the face of our

referendum result? Every time they

speak out they are undermining us.

Glen Pyne

Camberley, Surrey

SIR – Sir William Cash (Letters, August

15) exposes Philip Hammond and the

double standards he and others are

using to stop Brexit.

As Sir William points out, the

leaving date is set in law because

Parliament voted by a huge majority –

which included those currently trying

to sabotage the democratic process –

to invoke Article 50. The choice in the

referendum was clear: stay or leave.

Leave won the day. There was no

mention of a deal on the ballot paper.

R G Hopgood

Kirby-le-Soken, Essex

SIR – The idea of Jeremy Corbyn being

installed as temporary Prime Minister

(report, August 15) is ludicrous.

What does he not understand about

the words democracy, minority and

monarchy? He denounces Boris Johnson

as an unelected prime minister, yet he

would be the same thing. Labour won

68 fewer seats than the Tories at the

2017 general election; the reigning

monarch is politically neutral.

British voters do not want a Marxist

republic. Mr Corbyn should resign

before he is thrown out by his own

party – or voters at the next election.

Anthony Fernau

Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

SIR – If the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn

in charge isn’t enough to persuade

MPs to defeat a no-confidence motion,

I don’t know what is.

David Pound

Daventry, Northamptonshire

SIR – Sarah Wollaston, formerly the

Tory MP for Totnes, who promised

at hustings in 2017 to respect the

pro-Brexit vote of her constituents

(53 per cent in favour), is now joining

the Liberal Democrats (having briefly

flirted with Change UK) so that she can

support their pro-Remain stance.

How can she think this is

acceptable? She won Totnes as a

Tory; the Lib Dems came third. I hope

she is replaced at the next general

election by an MP who truly

represents this constituency.

Liz Beaumont

London SW

SIR – I sympathise with Polly Hurlow’s

quandary over who to vote for

(Letters, August 15). I am a

Conservative and support the Prime

Minister and his view on leaving the

EU – but my MP is Dominic Grieve.

Garry Carfoot

Woburn Green, Buckinghamshire

SIR – The Monster Raving Loony Party

will never have a better chance of

forming a government than at the

next election.

David Brown

Preston, Lancashire

By siding with the EU, Remainers scupper Britain’s chances of a deal Hong Kong protests

SIR – With the risk increasing of a

violent end to protests in Hong Kong,

Britain should act to secure the rights

of Hong Kong’s citizens, as we agreed

to do for 50 years after the handover of

the territory in 1997.

The Government should move to

ensure that British nationals in the

territory are able to live in Britain,

and to expand this citizenship right

to all current Hong Kong nationals

who request it.

Matthew Kilcoyne

Adam Smith Institute

Dr Kristian Niemietz

Head of Political Economy, Institute of

Economic Affairs

Maeve Thompson

Director of External Affairs, Demos

Evan Fowler

Founder of the Hong Kong Free Press

Bob Seely MP (Con)

London SW

Daniel Kawczynski MP (Con)

London SW

SIR – I worry when politicians seek to

burnish their credentials by quoting

military authorities such as Clausewitz

or Sun Tzu. Tom Tugendhat’s piece on

Hong Kong (Commentary, August 15)

is a case in point. He writes: “Sun Tzu

said that allowing your enemy a

golden bridge would stop them

needing to fight to the end.”

Sun Tzu never used the words

“golden bridge”. In the original, his

text reads: “When you surround your

enemies, leave an opening. Do not

push too hard on enemies who are

desperate.” This would seem quite

adequate for Mr Tugendhat’s

argument – there is no need,

we might say, to gild any lilies.

Rear Admiral Christopher Parry

Portsmouth, Hampshire

Grouse and CO 2

SIR – The Labour Party claims the

reason for its attack on the activities

of grouse-moor owners and

gamekeepers (Letters, August 13)

is that it wants to protect the

environment from the carbon dioxide

released into the atmosphere as a

result of such activities.

Logically, then, it must also be

opposed to the erection of any more

wind turbines in Scotland.

A single turbine requires a vast hole

to be dug to accommodate a base of

reinforced concrete, delivered to the

area by huge numbers of lorries along

a hardcore road that has been carved

out of the hillside. The amount of

carbon dioxide released in this process

• let alone that of constructing and
  transporting the giant turbines
  – is incalculable.
  The Marquess of Aberdeen
  Methlick, Aberdeenshire

Beard prohibition

SIR – I understand the basis for the

prohibition of beards in the RAF

(Letters, August 15) was that they

might prevent an airtight seal between

an airman’s oxygen mask and his face.

Moustaches were allowed because

they fitted wholly underneath the

mask, so the same problem did not

arise. The resulting resemblance to an

additional propeller on the pilot’s

upper lip is just a happy coincidence.

J P Redman

London NW

Milk snatchers

SIR – With the return of doorstep milk

deliveries, how long will it be before

our local blue tits remember how to

peck holes through the foil top of the

bottle to get to the cream beneath?

Our Cavalier spaniel has already

learnt this trick.

Henry Dodds

Sevenoaks, Kent

Ingesting microplastics

SIR – You reported (August 15) on a

paper published on microplastics

found in snow, which concluded that

these concentrations “indicate

significant air pollution and stress the

urgent need for research on human

and animal health effects focusing on

airborne microplastics”.

It is not just respiratory intake of

microplastics that should concern us,

however, but human ingestion of them

as well. Work has barely started on

either issue, although the University of

Medicine in Vienna intends to expand

its research on the latter as much as

resources permit. This is a rather

shocking state of affairs.

Professor Michael Jefferson

Melchbourne, Bedfordshire

Unconditional offers

SIR – Back in the mid-Fifties, Lincoln

College Oxford offered me an

unconditional place. As a working-

class grammar-school boy from east

London it was a mark of honour,

indicating that the college believed it

had recognised exceptional potential.

Today it seems an unconditional

offer has become a mark of shame,

not for the applicants but for money-

grubbing, Mickey Mouse universities,

which are greedy for the profits that

relate directly to the number of bums

on seats in lecture halls. Previous

governments created this mess. I hope

this Government will clean it up.

John Torode

London W

SIR – My son recently graduated from

the University of Birmingham with a

first-class degree in chemistry, the

euphoria of which has been severely

dented by potential starting salaries in

his field of a mere £22,000 per annum.

It is irksome that expertise in

science, technology, engineering and

mathematics – despite being heralded

by employers – is financially

undervalued, with the result that

graduates consider altering their

career paths or exploring

opportunities overseas. Post-

graduation reward may well be the

defining factor in subject choice and

not the area of study itself.

David Bulless

Cheltenham, Gloucestershire

Light-bulb moment

SIR – You report (August 14) on the rise

in second-hand wedding dresses.

Unfortunately, my mother made my

wedding dress into lampshades.

Pauline Black

Woking , Surrey

Temps perdu: a watercolour of the Champs-Élysées by Constantin Guys (1802-92)

BRIDGEMAN IMAGES

siR – As a writer on Proust, I know

why my man is so special. It has

nothing to do with the “evanescence

of memory or the ephemerality of

youth” (Comment, August 13).

Proust is at the cutting-edge of

humanity. His raw, terrifying

portrayal of the fall of Charlus is

unsurpassed, as is his portrait of the

vulgar Mme Verdurin, who becomes

the Princesse de Guermantes.

There are many more examples:

what about the flagellation scenes in

a brothel? Wit, cruelty, jealousy,

cunning and desire abound. But do

not start at the beginning – go

straight to Sodom and Gomorrah or

to the final book Time Regained,

then begin at the beginning.

Dr Cynthia Gamble

London W

siR – A very astute and much-loved

uncle once said: “You do realise that

Proust is an anagram of stupor.”

Enough read.

Judith Ellis

Burton-in-Kendal, Cumbria

Forget those clichés about Proust and memory

SIR – As you say in your leader (August

13), there are many contradictions in

the rules about driving safely.

One you did not mention is

drinking hot coffee while driving.

Clearly a dangerous thing to do, it is

seemingly sanctioned by the

authorities, as demonstrated by the

facilities available.

Even if one doesn’t want to stop and

stretch one’s legs, it is easy enough for

the driver to find a newly built

drive-thru coffee shop at a motorway

service station.

Jo O’Grady

Bristol

SIR – My father, a chartered

mechanical engineer who served his

apprenticeship with the Daimler

company, advised me that one should

always be able to hear one’s car engine,

which is not possible if one is listening

to the radio or a mobile phone.

Having heeded his advice, there

have indeed been occasions when I

was aware that my “faithful servant”

(his words) did not sound quite right

and needed some tender loving care.

Susan Fuller

Coventry, Warwickshire

SIR – I have been using hands-free car

phones for years. I appreciate there is

evidence that they are a distraction.

However, are they any more

distracting than recalcitrant children,

talking to a passenger or being berated

by one’s spouse for forgetting the

house keys?

Charlie Bloom

Southampton

SIR – Is it not time that smoking behind

the wheel was outlawed?

To drive one-handed while holding

a smouldering cigarette seems to me a

very dangerous thing to do.

Malcolm Beet

Eyam, Derbyshire

The dangers of coffee drinking and driving

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