drafted on 1 August – after Boris Johnson became prime minister.
No wonder Mr Johnson’s allies resorted to diversionary tactics. The report warned that the UK could face
shortages of fresh food, medicines and fuel; the closure of two oil refineries; delays at ports and airports;
public disorder requiring “significant” police resources and a hard border with Ireland. Food and electricity
price rises would hit low-income groups hardest.
This bleak picture would amount to the country’s biggest crisis since the Second World War, even though
the pain would be self-inflicted, a still avoidable act of economic self-harm.
There are also suggestions the report was part of an attempt by civil servants to warn ministers against
pursuing the no-deal option. No doubt hardline Brexiteers would see this as a political act by “Remainers”
in Whitehall. A more plausible explanation is that politically neutral officials were merely doing their job, by
mapping out a worst-case scenario in case that happened.
Predictably, Brexiteers dubbed the leak the latest instalment of “Project Fear”. A better title would be
“Project Reality”. As the European Commission pointed out, the damage of a no-deal departure “would be
proportionately much greater” for the UK than the EU27. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development warned in March that no deal could tip the UK into recession, which looks prescient after
figures showing the economy contracted in the second quarter of this year. The UK’s Office for Budget
Responsibility has predicted a £30bn black hole in the public finances by 2021.
Despite their bluster, ministers did not say which elements of the leaked report were wrong or out of date.
They might worry that providing more information about the impact of no deal would provoke panic buying
and stockpiling. Yet at some point, the government will have to level with the public and business, and the
sooner the better. Nods, winks and a blame game about leaked reports are not an adequate preparation.
Companies are not being kept in the loop; the Freight Transport Association was surprised by the report’s
disclosures about likely delays for lorries at ports.
The government has told public bodies, including local authorities, not to reveal any no-deal planning in
response to freedom of information requests, saying this “would undermine the effective conduct of public
affairs”.
It might also undermine public confidence in the government. Ministers know that if they acknowledged
the risks of no deal, they would come under more political and public pressure to avoid it. But more
transparency is urgently needed, not least in order to make no-deal plans effective.
With his usual smile, Mr Johnson said yesterday that he was confident the UK would be ready by 31
October but conceded there would be some “bumps in the road”. That could prove to be an
understatement. Indeed, lorry drivers stuck on a motorway or in a giant lorry park in Kent might be grateful
to get far enough to experience a bump in the road.
The prime minister insisted: “If you want a good deal, you must be ready to come out without one.” So far,
he has put his energy into preparing for no deal to put pressure on the EU to make concessions on the Irish
backstop. This strategy does not seem to be working. It is time now for Mr Johnson to pursue a deal with
equal vigour. Rather than merely restating his demand for the backstop to be scrapped, he should use his
meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron this week to open serious negotiations about a
revised agreement that would ensure the alarming scenarios in the leaked report never come to pass.