From the Desk of Hunter Proud Foundation
So, what is the magic number that shows
a stabilizing elephant population in Botswa-
na? Is it Junker’s figure of 156 000 in 2008,
EWB’s 2018 number of 130 000, or should
it be closer to Junker’s claim of 400 000 at the
beginning of the 19th century?
The 2016 IUCN African Elephant Report
showed concern:
“Although a new total of 129,939 ± 12,
from the Great Elephant Census in 2014
(Chase et al., 2015) has been included in the
AED, this result raises questions with respect
to the 2010 and 2012 surveys. It indicates
no significant change since 2010 although a
population that shows no evidence of serious
poaching, excessive natural mortality or highlevels of net emigration would be expected to
show some increase. Compared to the 2012
survey results, the 2014 estimate would indi-
cate a marked decline that is unlikely in the
absence of any other indicators.”
The 2018 numbers would undoubtedly have
been even more disconcerting.
It is generally accepted that under normal
conditions, a 5% per annum elephant
population increase is not unusual. There is
nothing to suggest that conditions had been
abnormal but even if a figure of 2% is used, the
projection would show a population increase
from 128 000 in 2010 to around 150 000 in
2018.
The 2018 EWB report may well have been
peer-reviewed by a number of impressive pro-
fessionals, but things just don’t seem to add up.
Perhaps if Elephant Without Borders
released the raw data from the 2010, 2014
and 2018 censuses for neutral experts to
assess, the controversy could be put to bed.
But this is not going to happen. If the figures
and conclusions drawn from these Botswana
surveys prove to be unreliable it will cast into
doubt the integrity of entire continent-wide
Great Elephant Census project. And that
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