Tongaat informs
the market that it
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cover story stocks
investors that its revenue would drop by around R1bn for
its 2018 fiscal year, mainly due to a stronger rand exchange
rate. The drop was repeated when the company said its
half-year profits would be lower earlier this year.
Omnia saw a steep increase in its share price at the
end of 2017 after announcing higher-than-expected
profits and a slight increase in its sales. The opposite
happened when its full-year results showed a slump
in profit six months later. At the end of 2018, its share
price slid further when it announced a loss for the first
six months of the 2019 fiscal.
EOH saw a similar negative reaction to its share price
during the first half of 2018 on lower profits, as did Tongaat
Hulett during the second half of last year.
Reuben Beelders, chief investment officer and portfolio
manager at Gryphon, looks at a range of fundamental
indicators to make buy or sell decisions.
“The DuPont ‘disaggregation’ of the return on equity is
a very basic but very effective means of looking at how a
company has performed,” he says (see box on p. 42).
The asset turnover ratio is important to Beelders,
because it shows how efficient the balance sheet
is in generating turnover. “I have learned that when
companies make lots of acquisitions, it is this metric
which starts indicating the slowdown first,” he says.
“Management is able to fudge the profits, but because
acquired assets have been ‘overpaid’ for, they cannot
generate returns above the cost of capital.”
Even an increase in revenue, or sales, should be
viewed with circumspection. Where revenue is growing
fast, but stock, or inventory, is growing at a faster pace
(measured as a percentage change on the previous
year’s figures), it generally isn’t a good sign, according
to Beelders. The company will need to invest its cash
in inventory, which is a form of working capital, and this
type of capital doesn’t earn a return, he says.
Likewise, an increase in profit isn’t necessarily an
example of a healthy company.
“If a company is growing its profits but it is doing
so by taking out unnecessary debt, while the short-
term result may be ‘good’, the long-term impact will be
negative,” says Beelders.
Working capital, which in most cases includes debtors,
stock and cash, could also be gauged for problems in a
company’s finances.
Companies with long working capital cycles, such
as converting debtors into cash for example, must be
managed very carefully. So too those with long lead times
when it comes to expanding capacity, says Beelders. An
example is Sasol and the construction of its US-based
Lake Charles Chemicals Project, he says.
A company’s ability to translate a large proportion of
its profit into cash is another fundamental indicator to
determine the health of a stock.
“I am a great believer in the ability of a business to
generate cash and to generate high levels of cash as a
percentage of profit,” says Beelders. “While this may seem52-week range: R68.99 - R298
Price/earnings ratio: 95.01
1-year total return: -66.95%
Market capitalisation: R38.59bn
Earnings per share: R0.89
Dividend yield: 3.71%
Average volume over 30 days: 1 549 315
SOURCE: IRESS52-week range: R28 - R134
Price/earnings ratio: -
1-year total return: -74.6%
Market capitalisation: R2.25bn
Loss per share: R1.12
Dividend yield: 2.31%
Average volume over 30 days: 222 153
SOURCE: IRESS52-week range: R9 - R50.10
Price/earnings ratio: -
1-year total return: -61.44%
Market capitalisation: R2.95bn
Loss per share: R12.84
Dividend yield: -
Average volume over 30 days: 358 360
SOURCE: IRESS52-week range: R13.19 - R90
Price/earnings ratio: -
1-year total return: -
Market capitalisation: -
Loss per share: R1.13
Dividend yield: -
Average volume over 30 days: -
SOURCE: IRESSAdriaan de Lange
CEO of OmniaGus Attridge
Deputy CEO of AspenTONGAAT HULETTOMNIAEOHASPEN400
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0Jan ’17Jan ’17Jan ’17Jan ’17Jan ’18Jan ’18Jan ’18Jan ’18Jan ’19Jan ’19Jan ’19Jan ’19Jul ’17Jul ’17Jul ’17Jul ’17Jul ’18Jul ’18Jul ’18Jul ’18Jul ’19Jul ’19Jul ’19Jul ’19SOURCE: IRESSSOURCE: IRESSSOURCE: IRESSSOURCE: IRESSAspen announces a R1bn drop in sales
due to the rand’s strengthening.Large volumes of EOH shares are sold, which force the share price down. The
company explains the two directors’ shares, put up as security, were sold by
financial institutions. EOH said it conducts its business in an ethical manner.
EOH announces a drop
in its half-year profit.
EOH says Microsoft
suspended an agreement.Omnia says it expects
a half-year loss.Omnia releases its full-year results
showing a drop in revenue and profit.
Omnia announces
a jump in half-year
profits and slight
increase in sales.Tongaat Hulett issues a trading statement
in which they warn that profit would
slump by 60% for the half-year.Tongaat’s new CEO takes over and starts a review of the company’s
business. The company says there are more difficulties than anticipated.Aspen announces a
drop in half-year profit.CentsCentsCentsCents