RICHARDSWINBURNE/ VIEWFROMTAIWAN
OPINION
I
willprefacethiscolumnbyremindingreadersthat
leakedroadmapsaren’tofficiallyconfirmedby
Intel.Thiscolumnisbasedona numberofleaksof
Intel’splansfor2020,whichhavebeenpublishedseparately
invariousplacesonline.
IntelhasalreadypubliclyannouncedthatitsCorei9-9900KS
willbearrivinglaterthisyear.It’sthesame8-coreCPUas
thei9-9900K/KF,butwitha 5GHzall-coreclockthatshould
bringsomeperformanceadvantages.Ultimately,though,
AMD’s16-corebehemoth– the3950X– isgoingtoaddfar
moreadvantageswhenitlaunchesaroundthesametime.
Theschedulingofthei9-9900KStellsusthatIntel’s300-series
platforms(Z390andsoon)willremainwith
usuntilatleasttheendoftheyear.That’s
unusualnotonlybecauseitmeansa delayin
Intel’sannualupdateofitsdesktopplatform,
butalsobecauseit’sata timewhenAMDis
atitsmostcompetitive.
TheleakedIntel 2020 roadmapsdetaila
newLGAsocketwith1,200pins,whichis
reportedlyduetobeannouncedaroundthis
comingDecember/January.AftertenyearsofLGA115x,it’s
finallybuh-bye.Thenewsocketisapparentlysettoreceive
newCometLake-SprocessorswithTDPsgoingupto125W.
ThiswouldmarkthefirsttimesinceIntelsplititsdesktop
platformsintomainstreamandHEDTline-upsthatthe
standardplatformhasexceeded100WCPUs.Ofcourse,these
TDPnumbersareprettymeaninglessthesedaysbecauseboost
clocksoftenpushpowerdrawwellabove200Wanyway.The
reasonfortheuptickis,supposedly,thatIntelisplanninga
10-core20-threadprocessorasitsnext-genhigh-endchip,
stillmadeona 14nmprocess!
Intel’sfirstIceLakeprocessors,featuringIntel’snextbig
microarchitectureupdatearereportedlycomingthisyear,but
onlyforlaptops.CometLake-Schips,however,remaininthe
Skylakegeneration.AsIntelisveryunlikelytodiscontinue
a newplatforminundera year,wecanexpecttheComet
Lake-SplatformandoldSkylake-classarchitecturetocover
mostof2020.
CometLake-SisreportedlyalsolimitedtoPCI-E3,andits
officialDDR4speedsarebelow3GHz.Infact,theonlyupdate
appearstobethatitfeaturesthelatestsilicon-bakedsecurity
mitigationstoSpectreandMeltdownvulnerabilities,but
thenagain,sodoesAMD’sZen2.
NotonlyisAMDwinningreviewsandperformance
benchmarksnow,butbythetimenextsummerhits,AMD
willbelaunchingitsZen3 CPUs,withan
updatedmicroarchitectureand2nd-gen
7nm+process.Evenif Zen3 isonlya modest
update,its 12 and16-corechipsshouldbreeze
intoa dominatingposition,againversus
Intel’s10-corecompetitor.
Intel’sX series‘update’appearstobeeven
morelethargic,beingyetanotherX
refresh.TheCascadeLake-XrefreshCPUs
arelikelytooffersometurbo-boostperformancetweaks
tomakethemmorecompetitive,as wellas thenew
silicon-bakedsecuritymitigations.However,thisplatform
lookssettocontinueusing14nmtransistors,whileonly
supportingPCI-E3 andCPUswithupto 18 cores.Ifthat’strue,
itwillsitina poormarketspot,whereit’smoreexpensive
thanX570systems,whileofferingfarfewercoresthanAMD’s
ThreadripperCPUs.
Fromhere,wehavetowonderhowthiswillaffectIntel’sfirst
XeGPUlaunchnextyear?WithoutleadingCPUperformance
andPCI-E4 graphics,itwon’thavethebestlaunchscenario.
If Intel’spremiumbrandpositionishurtingnow,it looksset
tohavea worsetimenextyear.ROADMAPS AND DEAD ENDS
Intel’s leaked 2020 CPU plans looks good for AMD,
says Richard SwinburneRichard has worked in tech for over a decade, asa UKjournalist,onAsus’ROGteamandnowasanindustryanalystbasedinTaiwan @ricswi
If Intel’s premium brand
position is hurting now,
it looks set to have a
worse time next year