fluctuate from month-to-month, so last month’s
meager increase could also be a one-time blip.
It typically takes roughly 100,000 or so new
jobs a month to absorb population growth and
keep the unemployment rate from rising. If
November’s modest increase were to continue,
the jobless rate could rise from its currently very
low level of 3.6%.
The ADP data aren’t affected by the GM
workers’ strike, which ended in late October and
lowered hiring in the government’s jobs report
for October. The return of striking workers is
expected to increase job gains in November’s
official report.
“The weakness in the ADP report does not
guarantee a disappointment in the upcoming
(government) data,” said Daniel Silver, an
economist at JPMorgan.
But Silver said that the disappointing ADP report
“is supportive of our view that the trend in job
growth has downshifted lately.”
ADP’s figures don’t include government hiring
and frequently diverge from the government’s
official report, and is expected to show an
increase of 190,000 jobs.
Hiring has been steady and resilient throughout
the decade-long U.S. recovery. But job gains
have slowed this year to an average of 167,000 a
month, down from 223,000 last year.
Trade tensions and slowing global growth have
cut into U.S. exports and caused factories to cut
jobs for much of this year. Retailers, beset by
online competition, have also eliminated jobs.
Still, with unemployment low and wages rising
at a decent pace, consumers are still spending
and driving economic growth.Image: Steven Senne