Section:GDN 1N PaGe:29 Edition Date:190812 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 11/8/2019 16:56 cYanmaGentaYellowb
Monday 12 Aug ust 2019 The Guardian •World^29
United States Donald Trump
is keen to hold a
new summit
with the North
Korean leader,
Kim Jong-un.▼ Iranians burn
a photo of Trump
at a protest in
Tehran, 2018
PHOTOGRAPH:
UPI/BARCROFTD
onald Trump is
heading into the
2020 elections with
no clear cut foreign
policy successes and
a string of looming
crises around the world that could
undermine his bid for re-election.
Many expect the president to try
to reverse the trend with dramatic
interventions around the globe with
uncertain outcomes – making the
next 16 months even more volatile.
Trump has pulled out of nuclear
agreements with Iran and Russia,
the better deals he predicted seem
remote , and nuclear proliferation
looks likely to accelerate.
An eff ort to oust Nicol ás Maduro’s
regime in Venezuela in April was
a fi asco , and subsequent eff orts to
strangle the economy have failed
in their political objective. Last
week, the UN high commissioner for
human rights, Michelle Bachelet ,
warned that the measures were
likely to exacerbate conditions for
millions of ordinary Venezuelans.
Trump’s proudest diplomatic
achievement , becoming the fi rst
sitting US president to meet a North
Korean leader , looks increasingly
hollow as Kim Jong-un builds his
arsenal and resumes missile tests.
The eradication of the Islamic
State “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq,
too, was tarnished by a Pentagon
report last week saying that Isis had
“solidifi ed its insurgent capabilities
in Iraq and was re surging in Syria”.
In Afghanistan, the government
says it is close to agreement with the
Taliban, clearing the way for a major
withdrawal of US forces by the end
of Trump’s fi rst term, but with 1,500
civilian casualties last month alone,
such negotiations are tenuous.
Foreign policy rarely plays a
leading role in US presidential
elections, but Trump has portrayed
himself as uniquely able to strike
deals with foreign leaders and bring
troops home. And some foreign
crises have a direct domestic result ,
such as the prospect of a worsening
trade war with China.
Ben Rhodes, Barack Obama’s
foreign policy advis er , said: “ Trump
saw a domestic political benefi t:
getting tough on China, Iran, on
Venezuela with voters in Florida in
mind, the spectacle of meeting Kim
Jong-un. But whatever short-term
benefi t there was has been more
than eclipsed by the long-term mess
he has created.”
Trump appears aware of his
foreign policy defi cit , and in the
short term, is redefi ning success.Trump abroad President’s
‘maximum pressure’ policy
is yielding minimum results
In relation to North Korea, that
means playing down the original
claim that diplomacy with Kim
would lead to nuclear disarmament.
When North Korea stepped up
short-range missile launches, the
red line was shifted to a block on
intercontinental missiles.
The “maximum pressure”
strategy against Iran was intended
to change its behaviour in the region
and force it into new negotiations
with the US, outside the multilateral
2015 deal that Trump abandoned.
By those measures, so far the
strategy is backfi ring. Iran is
stepping up its nuclear programme
beyond the limits of the 2015 deal.
It is more aggressive in the Gulf
and has rejected talks. However,
the Trump administration argues
it is making gains by cutting down
Tehran’s disposable cash.
“We have denied the regime tens
of billions of dollars in revenue
they would otherwise spend on
strengthening the regime and
strengthening their proxies,” said
Brian Hook, the US Iran envoy,
adding that the Iranian 2020 defence
budget was 28% down on 2019.
It is unclear if lowering the
success threshold will carry Trump
through to 2020 , as North Korea fi res
off more missiles , and Iran breaks
free of nuclear constraints. T he otheroption is bold action. A new confl ict
would be disastrous, electorally
and otherwise. The president was
“cocked and loaded” to strike Iran
in June but called it off when he was
warned it could cost his second term.
His instinct is for an eyecatching
deal. He is interested in another
summit with Kim – jubilantly
announcing another “very beautiful”
letter from the North Korean dictator- where he could off er a n easing of
sanctions for the destruction of some
nuclear weapons infrastructure.
Trump’s attempts to talk to Iran
have thus far been rebuff ed, but the
UN general assembly in September
off ers another chance for a meeting
with President Hassan Rouhani , at
the likely cost of easing economic
pressure. Trump may just think it is
worth the risk, even if entails the
exit of his ultra-hawkish national
security adviser, John Bolton.
A deal might also be possible with
the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, in
which Beijing restarts imports of US
agricultural products in return for
the US easing its ban on Huawei.
Trump could seize any such
agreement and proclaim it as the
deal of the century. The question
would be whether Pyongyang,
Tehran or Beijing will play along.
“It is remarkable how much
agency these countries have,”
Rhodes said. “Certainly, Iran, China
and North Korea will be aware that
anything they do will have an impact
on the elections ... they have a vote.”
North Korea has good reason to
assist a president who has showered
praise on its leader, while Tehran
would like to see him gone. Beijing
is also showing signs it would rather
not face a second Trump term. In the
faces of such challenges , Trump has
pushed ever closer to the edge of an
all-out trade war – or a shooting war.
“Trump will be trying to grab
the headlines and portray himself
as a leader,” said Julianne Smith,
a former senior national security
adviser to Obama. “We will see a
series of rash and reckless moves
and a lot more drama in the next 18
months. So hold on to your hats.”‘Iran, China and
North Korea will be
aware that anything
they do will have an
impact on elections ’Ben Rhodes
Former adviser to Barack Obama▲ A Venezuelan demonstrator. The
US attempt at regime change failed1,500
The number of civilian casualties in
Afghanistan last month, according to
the UN, putting a peace deal in doubt28%
The fall in the Iranian defence budget
for 2020 from this year, according to
Brian Hook, Donald Trump’s envoyJulian Borger
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