That is a calculation that is impossible to make until we get closer to the crunch. Oliver Letwin, one of the
leading Tory anti-no-dealers, said last month: “The mechanism can be done; whether there is a majority is
less certain ... I have absolutely no clear view of how that majority can be formed and I don’t think we will
know that until right up at the last moment.”
Over the past week, the opponents of no deal have been riven by squabbling over the plan to instal a
caretaker prime minister. Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, proposed a government of national unity led by
an all-women cabinet. Jeremy Corbyn proposed that he should be made prime minister for a few weeks to
agree a postponement of Brexit with the EU and call an election.
Jo Swinson, the new Liberal Democrat leader, said he was the wrong person and it should be Kenneth
Clarke or Harriet Harman instead. Clarke returned from a two-week holiday this weekend and said, “I don’t
want to annoy Jeremy,” but he would be happy to do it.
So it may not be possible to agree on a candidate for this drastic plan – and, even if it is possible, it may not
muster the votes needed to see it through. In which case, what is Plan B for the opponents of no deal?
The other possible route to blocking a no-deal Brexit is to pass a series of laws from the backbenches to
force Johnson to seek and then to agree with the EU a further postponement of Brexit.
John Bercow, the speaker, would almost certainly allow a backbencher to start the process using an
emergency motion. And Yvette Cooper showed that a backbench law was possible in April, when an act was
passed – by just one vote – to require Theresa May to seek a Brexit extension. It would have had more
support from Tory rebels if May had not already said she would do what MPs wanted.
There would be enough votes, therefore, to pass a similar law to instruct Johnson, but the hard part would
be to force him to sign up to an agreement with the EU.
If he refused and asked for an election instead, the Commons would be back to having to instal a temporary
prime minister to agree an extension and to prevent Britain leaving without a deal during the election
campaign.