Los Angeles Times - 02.08.2019

L ATIMES.COM S FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 2019A

THE WORLD

BEIJING — China’s pow-
erful military has issued a
stern warning to protesters
in Hong Kong — simulta-
neously releasing a video to
bolster its strong words —
vowing to defend the na-
tion’s sovereignty and main-
tain stability against “intol-
erable” demonstrations that
have racked the semiauton-
omous territory for weeks.
“We resolutely support
the action to maintain Hong
Kong’s rule of law by the peo-
ple who love the nation and
the city, and we are deter-
mined to protect national
sovereignty, security, stabil-
ity and the prosperity of
Hong Kong,” Chen Dao-
xiang, commander of the
People’s Liberation Army
garrison in Hong Kong, said
Wednesday night. In an ex-
traordinary rebuke at a Chi-
nese army event Wednesday,
Chen referred to the pro-
tests as “intolerable” and
added that the military was
ready to uphold Chinese
sovereignty and keep order
in Hong Kong.
The self-promotional
army video the garrison re-
leased has been widely
shared on Chinese social
media.

Slogans of “Fight Terror”

and “Maintain Stability”

flash in the video as Chinese

military officers slide down

ropes from a helicopter,

drive armored personnel

carriers and launch missiles

against a backdrop of dram-

atic music.

In one section that mir-

rors Hong Kong police

clashes with pro-democracy

protesters, an officer shouts

in Cantonese, “All conse-

quences at your own risk,”

then charges forward with

an armored phalanx of Chi-

nese military troops, shoot-

ing tear gas at a group of pre-

tend rioters.

Later, the music turns

soft and inspirational as vi-

deo rolls of civilians wiping

sweat off officers’ faces and

praising the army for being

“strong,” “neat” and “hand-

some.”

Analysts say that Chen’s

comments and the video are

part of a propaganda effort

aimed at stoking domestic

nationalism and putting

psychological pressure on

the protesters but that mili-

tary action remains unlikely.

“The videos and state-

ments are for a domestic au-

dience, to show that they’re

very determined to protect

sovereignty and crush rebel-

lious elements,” said Ho-

Fung Hung, a sociologist at

Johns Hopkins University.

But Beijing will probably

only “heat up the rhetoric”

without actually sending in

troops, which would be too

much of a liability for Presi-

dent Xi Jinping, he said.

“If the Hong Kong police

accidentally or intentionally

kill somebody or something

bad happens, Beijing can al-

ways say the local author-

ities did it,” Hung said.

“If they use the [army], it

is going to be mobilized by

the Central Military Com-

mittee and Xi Jinping him-

self, and if anything goes

wrong, Xi Jinping cannot be

exonerated from this.”

Beijing’s highest govern-

ment office for Hong Kong

affairs held a news confer-

ence Monday in which

spokesman Yang Guang

said the central government

backed Hong Kong’s police

and government but did not

directly answer questions

about military intervention.

Yang, like Chen, only re-

ferred to a part of Hong

Kong law stating that the

army garrison would not in-

terfere in local affairs unless

requested by the Hong Kong

government to keep order.

Chinese officials have

meanwhile accused the U.S.

of orchestrating Hong

Kong’s protests, which U.S.

officials have denied.

Antony Dapiran, a Hong

Kong-based lawyer and au-

thor of a book about dissent

in the territory, agreed that

the army video was part of a

broader message of support

for Hong Kong police, not an

indication that intervention

is imminent.

“The Hong Kong police

are more than capable of

maintaining order,” Dapiran

said.

Beijing’s support will

probably empower police to

switch from merely dispers-

ing protesters to making

mass arrests at upcoming

protests, Dapiran said, add-

ing that young protesters

are no longer afraid of tear

gas but might be deterred by

riot charges and serious jail

sentences.

Forty-four protesters ar-

rested in clashes with police

Sunday were charged with

“rioting” this week, an of-

fense punishable by up to 10

years in prison.

Beijing is walking a fine

line in trying to scare pro-

testers without going so far

that China’s reputation is ir-

revocably damaged, said

Willy Lam, professor of

China studies at the Chinese

University of Hong Kong.

When the army first sent

tanks and armored person-

nel carriers into Beijing in

1989, they were initially sur-

rounded by residents and

“stopped in their tracks” be-

fore later massacring stu-

dent protesters in Tianan-

men Square, Lam said.

Xi does not want that

scene to repeat in Hong

Kong because it would de-

stroy China’s reputation,

drive a mass exodus of mid-

dle-class Hong Kongers and

cause the stock market to

crash, Lam said.

Beijing might achieve its

psychological goals by de-

ploying only a few hundred

of the Hong Kong garrison’s

several thousand soldiers to

guard government build-

ings, Lam said. “The best re-

sult, from Beijing’s point of

view, will be that people will

be scared.”

Chinese military propa-

ganda is, so far, unlikely to

deter protesters from con-

tinued demonstrations, in-

cluding three marches over

the weekend and a planned

citywide strike and rallies in

seven districts of Hong Kong

on Monday.

As police escalate their

means of repressing pro-

testers, what started as a

peaceful movement against

an unwanted extradition bill

has become a growing wave

of anger against police, local

gangs and Chief Executive

Carrie Lam.

Representatives from

Hong Kong’s education, law,

business and civil society

spheres are demanding an

independent investigation

into alleged police violence.

That investigation, along

with forcing Carrie Lam’s

resignation, would be Bei-

jing’s two best options for

de-escalation at minimal

cost, said Lam, the Hong

Kong professor. But neither

is likely.

“Beijing is dead-set

against establishment of an

independent commission of

inquiry,” he said. “They need

the police, just as in Tianan-

men they needed the sol-

diers.”

“Sacking Carrie Lam

would mean succumbing to

pressure from the pro-

testers. It would mean ad-

mission that Beijing has

made a mistake, and the

Chinese Communist Party

doesn’t like to say that it has

made a mistake. So I’m

afraid the impasse will con-

tinue.”

China warns Hong Kong protesters

SOLDIERS WITHthe People’s Liberation Army stage a demonstration in Hong Kong. A commander re-

ferred to the Hong Kong protests as “intolerable” and said the military was prepared to help maintain order.

Kin CheungAssociated Press

The army issues a

rebuke and releases a

promotional video

showing troops in

anti-riot training.

By Alice Su

BANGKOK, Thailand —
Against a backdrop of Chi-
na’s rising economic and
military power, Secretary of
State Michael R. Pompeo ar-
rived in the Thai capital,
Bangkok, this week with a
difficult mission: Try to win
back lost ground in South-
east Asia, a region once
dominated by the United
States.
Under President Trump,
U.S. leverage in Southeast
Asia has continued a slide
that began during the
Obama administration.
Trump’s early decision to
pull out of the 12-nation
Trans-Pacific Partnership
trade agreement — Presi-
dent Obama’s attempt to ce-
ment American influence
and counter China’s in the
region — angered and frus-
trated the U.S. allies, who to
the surprise of some decided
to forge ahead on the pact
without the United States.
The United States’ wan-
ing power is also apparent in
the Trump administration’s
fight to pressure and isolate
the Chinese communica-
tions giant Huawei, a cam-
paign that has drawn little
support from Southeast
Asian nations. And several
of those countries are in-
creasingly nervous about
getting caught up in Wash-
ington’s trade war with
China.
Pompeo, who will meet
with top government offi-
cials from 10 Southeast
Asian nations representing
650 million people, said he
was confident the Trump
administration’s efforts
were deepening and widen-
ing U.S. engagement in a
strategically important part
of the world.
But he downplayed the
U.S.-China rivalry, saying
his goal was not to win
“back” allies, and telling re-
porters traveling with him
that it was “rude” to suggest
some countries in the region
were “vassal states” in the
“clutches of China.”
“They are looking for
partners,” he said. “It’s not
about luring them back.”
On Thursday, Pompeo
stepped lightly when he
opened the ASEAN confer-
ence here, avoiding mention
of China when he said the
U.S. will “not ever” ask a na-
tion in the region “to choose

between countries.”

“Our engagement in this

region has not been and will

not be a zero-sum exercise,”

Pompeo added. “Our inter-

ests simply naturally con-

verge with yours to our mu-

tual benefit.”

Pompeo is also attempt-

ing to solidify another initia-

tive of his tenure: creation of

the so-called Indo-Pacific

region, which portends to re-

draw boundaries to stretch

from the U.S. West Coast to

Japan, down through

Southeast Asia to Australia

and west across another

ocean to India. It is replacing

the familiar Asia-Pacific re-

gion and incorporates India

(while sidelining Pakistan)

to expand U.S. heft against

China.

China has not been shy

about pouring tens of bil-

lions of dollars into infra-

structure projects as part of

its mammoth Belt and Road

initiative, promising to

boost transport systems

and connectivity to help

drive a sustained period of

growth and stepping in

where the U.S. often isn’t.

Thanks in part to China’s

investment, the Assn. of

Southeast Asian Nations, or

ASEAN, has posted a com-

bined economic-output

growth of 50% in the last dec-

ade.

But China’s rise has

sparked some backlash in

the region. Malaysia can-

celed certain Belt and Road

projects because of what it

viewed as unfavorable

terms. Other countries are

worried about Beijing’s ef-

forts to use infrastructure

projects for military pur-

poses.

The South China Sea is a

case in point. China has

steadily built up and is mili-

tarizing the sea’s scattered

islands and shoals, which

other nations also claim.

The maritime and territorial

disputes with Beijing have

roiled the region.

Pompeo said the Cambo-

dian government, in a meet-

ing Thursday, denied re-

ports that it was prepared to

allow Chinese troops to use a

Cambodian naval base,

which would have been the

People’s Liberation Army’s

first outpost in Southeast

Asia. Pompeo urged other

countries to follow Cambo-

dia’s example.

China’s inroads, however,

are undeniable, as is Ameri-

ca’s decline.

After Trump in 2017 with-

drew from the TPP agree-

ment, U.S. meat and agricul-

tural exports to those na-

tions suffered, experts said.

Zachary Abuza, a profes-

sor at the National War Col-

lege in Washington, de-

scribed the TPP withdrawal

as a decision that U.S. rela-

tions with Southeast Asia

“will never recover from.”

“No one really has a lot of

faith that America is staying

in the region or that our

presence in the region is du-

rable,” Abuza said. “We’re

looking so transactional

right now. We walk away

from agreements we sign.

We don’t look reliable.”

Many Southeast Asian

governments have also re-

coiled at what they see as

U.S. efforts to force them to

take sides in the trade dis-

pute with China.

Apart from Vietnam, no

country in the region has

agreed to join the Huawei

boycott, despite the Trump

administration’s warnings

that the U.S. could cease

sharing sensitive informa-

tion with nations that use

the company’s technology.

The two U.S. treaty allies

in the region — Thailand

and the Philippines — are

both headed by govern-

ments that have sought

closer ties with China.

Huawei is testing ultra-fast

5G service in Thailand. In

July, a Philippine tele-

communication company

rolled out the region’s first

5G broadband service for a

limited number of house-

holds and offices, powered

by Huawei technology.

Philippine officials told

The Times in June they had

found no evidence to sup-

port U.S. allegations that

Huawei’s equipment could

be a Trojan horse for Chi-

nese spies.

“It’s not that the argu-

ment [on Huawei] is mis-

guided or inaccurate; it’s

just late, and there was ne-

ver an American alterna-

tive,” said Benjamin

Zawacki, a Bangkok-based

analyst and author of the

2017 book “Thailand: Shift-

ing Ground Between the

U.S. and a Rising China.”

“On whatever issue you

want to point to ... there’s al-

most none in which the U.S.

is advancing its interests in

the region at a faster pace

than China,” Zawacki said.

Here in Bangkok, Pom-

peo’s Chinese counterpart,

Wang Yi, appeared as concil-

iatory as America’s top di-

plomat. After the two held a

30-minute bilateral meeting,

Wang emerged to say that

“no matter how many prob-

lems, it is important for both

sides to sit down and have

face-to-face discussions.”

Pompeo said later on

Twitter that he was ready to

cooperate with China “when

it advances U.S. interests.”

And in a news conference

Thursday evening, he said:

“We were also very candid

about the places we are hop-

ing China will behave in the

ways that they are not be-

having.”

Pompeo’s visit to Thai-

land also comes weeks after

the formation of a new gov-

ernment there following the

first election since a 2014

coup. The March election

was marred by legal attacks

against leading opposition

parties and held under a new

constitution that gave the

army extensive power to ma-

nipulate the apportionment

of parliamentary seats, al-

lowing the incumbent prime

minister, former Gen.

Prayuth Chan-ocha, to re-

main in power.

Critics of the military

have also come under attack

in Thailand and overseas,

with several prominent dis-

sidents killed or arrested in

recent months.

Over the last decade, and

particularly since the coup,

Thailand has expanded mili-

tary relations with China,

conducting joint exercises

with every branch of the

People’s Liberation Army

and increasing weapons

purchases from China.

Wary of pushing Thai-

land further away, the U.S.

has refrained from criticiz-

ing the kingdom’s election or

the attacks against dissi-

dents. Even if he doesn’t ex-

plicitly endorse the out-

come, “Pompeo’s presence

will give the Thais what they

are looking for, which is be-

lated closure on the elec-

tions,” Zawacki said.

In Washington, the Pen-

tagon is reportedly pushing

for a full normalization of re-

lations with Thailand. After

the 2014 army coup, the

United States scaled back

the annual military exercise

it co-hosts with Thailand,

known as Cobra Gold, and

suspended $3.5 million in

military aid.

But Cobra Gold has been

restored to pre-coup levels,

and in a sign of U.S. eager-

ness to patch relations,

Trump hosted Prayuth in

Washington and last year

then-Defense Secretary

James N. Mattis met twice

with his Thai counterpart,

Prawit Wongsuwan.

Asenior State Depart-

ment official — aware the ad-

ministration is seen as lax on

human rights issues — said

U.S. officials believed the

Thai government had made

significant progress worthy

of a U.S. diplomatic em-

brace.

Wilkinson reported from

Bangkok and Bengali from

Singapore.

U.S. bid to regain clout in Southeast Asia

Pompeo is in Thailand

to meet with ASEAN

leaders amid China’s

rise in the region.

By Tracy Wilkinson
and Shashank Bengali

SECRETARY of State Michael R. Pompeo is flanked by, from far left, counter-

parts from Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Indonesia at a regional conference.

Jonathan Ernst Pool Photo