(^44) – SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2019 everythingzoomer.com
question. It hardly seemed possible but, all of a sudden,
the 2019 federal election was very much up for grabs.
For Trudeau, a leader who depends so much on image,
the scandal proved to be a huge blow to his brand. Before
SNC-Lavalin, he was a veritable beacon of progressive
virtue signalling, promising to empower women by
promoting them to key positions and professing that
he cared deeply about indigenous reconciliation. So why
did he demote (and, of course, later expel) a high-pro-
file female cabinet member who also happened to be
indigenous and a champion of reconciliation? The op-
tics did not look good.
The backlash reached its apex during Wilson-
Raybould’s testimony to the House Justice committee,
where she released secretly recorded phone conver-
sations and tried everything possible to besmirch her
former boss. When the bloodletting was over, Trudeau
emerged a weakened politician, viewed by many as just
another untrustworthy leader who would resort to any-
thing to stay in power. True or not, this narrative was
reflected in the polls, which knocked the Grits into
second place behind the Tories.
But while Scheer certainly stickhandled his way
through SNC-Lavalin with dexterity, he won’t be able
to form a government based solely on that. Voters have
notoriously short memories and, by the time October
rolls around, it will be six months since the scandal was
laid to rest.
A
s ever, the spectre of Donald Trump
looms over everything, including the
right-wing element in the Conservative
Party. The June cover of Maclean’s cas-
tigated Scheer for failing to crack down
on his “bigoted and xenophobic” sup-
porters. Sound familiar?
Plus, Scheer is gambling that an alliance with Ontario
premier Doug Ford and Alberta premier Jason Kenney
to vigorously fight the Liberal carbon-tax scheme will
pay off with voters in those two provinces. He’s also
hoping to recreate the same magic formula that saw
Kenney romp to victory over Rachel Notley’s NDP in
Alberta this year and Ford destroy Kathleen Wynne’s
Liberals in Ontario last year.
But hitching your wagon to Ford’s star is a strategy
fraught with peril and may evoke a big raspberry from
voters, much like the one Ford received at the Toronto
Raptors’ victory parade this past June. The boos came
from a largely gen-Y– and -Z racially diverse crowd, a
group that is expected to flex their political muscle in
this election.
And while the Tories rail against the carbon tax
(they’ve already lost two provincial court cases on that
front), the environment has emerged as a big issue in
this election, especially with millennial voters. The
Green Party, long a political afterthought, has become
a relevant player on the political scene.
This spring, they took everyone by surprise by win-
ning a byelection in B.C., doubling their total number
of seats in Ottawa. They’ve positioned themselves as the
only party that can solve our carbon emissions prob-
lem – neither the compromising carbon tax scheme
or pipeline decision of the Liberals nor the ho-hum al-
ternative plan offered by the Conservatives have been
judged effective by voters. With leader Elizabeth May a
hot guest on political talk shows, for the first time ever
the Greens have cracked double digits in support from
Canadian voters.
This trend is playing out in the European elections as
well, where the Greens won a record number of seats
this spring. And should this sudden surge continue for
the fall election, the small party could have a big ef-
fect on the results – while they won’t win many seats,
a strong showing could see them play a spoiler role in
close races, bleeding support from both the Liberals
and the NDP.
The rise of the Green Party in the European arena co-
incided with success of populist right-wing parties –
both coming at the expense of the traditional centrist
parties. Might Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party with
its libertarian clampdown on immigration message
appeal to disaffected Conservative voters? Don’t look
now but, in an election where every seat will count, the
late Rob Ford’s wife, Renata, is running for the fledgling
party in her husband’s old stomping grounds.
On the other side of the political spectrum, there has
been a rise in socialism in the U.S., especially among
younger voters. If that spills over here, it will be NDP
leader Jagmeet Singh’s best hope to reinvigorate his
party’s fortunes by enticing the same millennial vot-
ers who backed the Liberals in droves last election.
All this is happening as parties and voters strug-
gle to come to terms with digital-era election cam-
paigns. With its fake-news stories, doctored videos and
foreign-influenced campaigns, online platforms suc-
ceed by sowing confusion, creating a maelstrom of mis-
information similar to the one that wreaked such havoc
in the 2016 U.S. presidential race.
Indeed, the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security sug-
gests the time may be ripe for third-party election med-
dling, saying it’s “very likely” that there will be “some
form of foreign cyber interference ahead of, and dur-
ing, the 2019 federal election.”
From political scandal to a splintered electorate to
the specter of social media, this fall’s election prom-
ises to be like no other. And with the stakes at an all-
time high, our election package will help you make an
informed choice when you cast your ballot.
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