The Observer - 04.08.2019

Section:OBS 2N PaGe:17 Edition Date:190804 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 3/8/2019 18:01 cYanmaGentaYellowbla

• The Observer
  04.08.19 17

authorities have warned Muscovites

that peaceful protest could have seri-

ous, long-term consequences.

Sobyanin, in an interview with

the television channel owned by his

Moscow administration last week,

thanked police for carrying out their

“duty” and accused the protesters of

engaging in “pre-planned and well-

prepared mass unrest”. The opposi-

tion leaders had, he claimed falsely,

called on protesters to storm the may-

oralty, and it was only the fi ne work

of the police that had stopped such an

eventuality from occurring. This sug-

gested that the authorities could be

preparing for a real crackdown.

Every day last week, in a sign that

authorities are desperate to squeeze

the oxygen out of the protests and

warn people that taking part carries

a real danger of jail, there was a new

move against various pillars of the

opposition. On Thursday, independ-

ent television station TV Rain, which

has been live-streaming the protests,

said it had received notice of a sud-

olds have the most cash. They have

been better able to take advantage

of opportunities for career growth

and fi nancial enrichment than their

Soviet-schooled parents. For many

years, a sense of pride in a resurgent

Russia, steady economic growth and

improvements in everyday life kept

this young urban people satisfi ed.

Now, many are tired of the anti-

western rhetoric and keen for change.

They are also wary of the arbitrary

rules of Russian life – the way the ten-

tacles of the state can appear amid the

new Moscow of bike lanes and arti-

san eateries and seize victims with-

out warning.

The sizable protests earlier this

year over the detention of journal-

ist Ivan Golunov on obviously fabri-

cated drugs charges were a sign of

broader irritation at what might once

have been a niche issue troubling

only rights activists and fellow jour-

nalists. In that case, the authorities

stepped back and freed Golunov, and

they have also made concessions in a

number of other recent cases of sin-

den tax inspection. The following

day, there were reports that Navalny’s

anti-corruption foundation could be

investigated for money-laundering.

N

ine people were

arrested for “mass

unrest”, which c an

carry 15-year jail

terms. With full con-

trol of the levers of

state, Putin can create an upside-

down world where anti-corruption

investigators are investigated for cor-

ruption and those beaten up by police

are accused of provoking violence.

Already, the protests may have put

an end to the widespread idea that

Sobyanin wanted to present himself

as a potential national political fi g-

ure and possibly even a compromise

solution to the fraught dilemma of

who will take over from Putin when

his latest presidential term runs out

in 2024. By giving into the demands

of protesters, Sobyanin would lose

ground to people around Putin with

security services backgrounds who

favour a crackdown.

“They are afraid to be considered

traitors, because every offer to com-

promise with protesters is seen as

potential capitulation,” said politi-

cal scientist Ekaterina Schulmann.

“Their importance was that they kept

the people politically loyal, or at least

passive, by creating a glittering new

Moscow. If they are not succeeding

in this, what is the need for them?”

The debate about what comes next

is vexing not just for the authorities,

but also for the protest leaders. It is

now clear that the offi cial response

is likely to be repression and poten-

tially lengthy jail sentences, even for

peaceful protesters. In calling people

to attend “unsanctioned” protests, are

organisers pursuing the only means

of effecting real change , or irrespon-

sibly raising the stakes?

Nobody is in any doubt that a real

uprising along the lines of Ukraine’s

2014 Maidan revolution would be

aggressively put down. Now that

Putin has cleared the fi eld of any real

opposition, his mantra that a change

in government will lead to chaos

and unrest is probably a self-fulfi ll-

ing prophecy. And while Navalny is

a charismatic politician with broad

potential appeal, he has low approval

nationally. Many of those at the

Moscow protests don’t support him,

but are merely irritated by the cyni-

cism of Putin’s Kremlin.

If, in the medium term, Putin does

lose his grip on power, the threat is

more likely to come from inside the

Kremlin than from the streets. Sobol

spoke of “a wonderful Russia of the

future” – where courts and press are

free and corruption is minimised –

but it is hard to imagine this coming

about without serious violence and

state collapse. “I have no illusions, but

anything can happen,” said Sobol, her

voice weak but determined. “Things

will change sooner or later. We’re

doing everything to make sure it hap-

pens soon. If we’re not going to leave ,

we have to fi ght for our rights.”

GOOD TSAR

Putin delivers a

televised dressing-

down to oligarch

Oleg Deripaska

in 2009. AP

CRIMEA HERO

Putin celebrates

the annexing

of the Crimean

peninsula from

Ukraine at a

youth forum in

2016. Tass

TEAM TRUMP

Putin likes lead-

ers who make

trouble for west-

ern democra-

cies, and worked

to boost Trump’s

chances in 2016.

EPA

HORSE

WHISPERER

Putin has said

he prefers the

company of

animals. Getty

gle-issue protests. This is harder to do

in the case of the Moscow elections ,

however, as it would be seen as a sign

of weakness and could threaten the

Kremlin’s monopoly on political life.

On the other hand, cracking down

hard could prove counterproductive.

“There’s a lot of panic and they

don’t know what to do,” said Sobol.

“They don’t have a good solution.”

The protesters, on the whole, have

remained peaceful. The most vio-

lent act of last week’s protest came

when a man threw a bin in the vague

direction of riot police. The author-

ities, on the other hand, have gone

in hard. People were dragged kicking

and screaming into police vans; some

were hit with batons, and one man

suffered a fractured leg. He said he’d

been out jogging and had not even

been involved in the protest when

police pushed him to the ground.

That was only a taste of what might

come if things get more tense, or if

the protesters themselves start to get

violent: there were no water cannon ,

rubber bullets or even tear gas. Still,

Approve Disapprove No answer

Source: Levada-Center. Note: Survey carried out among 1,600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities

0

20

40

60

80

100%

2000 01 02 0304 05 0607 0809 1011 12 1314 1516 1718 19

Is the president losing his grip on Russia?

Survey conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings

Declining life expectancy

prompts projects to improve

healthcare and housing

Bounce after

annexation of

Crimea

Approval at its lowest since

2013 as young people chafe

at political repression

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