The Observer - 04.08.2019

Section:OBS 2N PaGe:2 Edition Date:190804 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 3/8/2019 16:20 cYanmaGentaYellowblac

• The Observer
  2 04.08.19 News

Cutting carbon from

transport and energy

‘not enough’ IPCC fi nds

Attempts to solve the climate crisis

by cutting carbon emissions from

only cars, factories and power plants

are doomed to failure, scientists will

warn this week.

A leaked draft of a report on cli-

mate change and land use, which is

now being debated in Geneva by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), states that it will be

impossible to keep global tempera-

tures at safe levels unless there is also

a transformation in the way the world

produces food and manages land.

Humans now exploit 72% of the

planet’s ice-free surface to feed, clothe

and support Earth’s growing popula-

tion, the report warns. At the same

time, agriculture, forestry and other

land use produces almost a quarter

of greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition, about half of all emis-

sions of methane, one of the most

potent greenhouse gases, come from

cattle and rice fi elds, while deforest-

ation and the removal of peat lands

cause further signifi cant emissions.

The impact of intensive agriculture –

which has helped the world’s popu-

lation soar from 1.9 billion a century

ago to 7.7 billion – has also increased

soil erosion and reduced amounts of

organic material in the ground.

In future these problems are likely

to get worse. “Climate change exac-

erbates land degradation through

increases in rainfall intensity, fl ood-

ing, drought frequency and severity,

heat stress, wind, sea-level rise and

wave action,” the report states.

It is a bleak analysis of the dangers

ahead and comes when rising emis-

sions have made news after trigger-

ing a range of severe meteorological

events. These include news that:

 Arctic sea-ice coverage reached

near record lows for July;

 The heatwaves that hit Europe

last month were between 1.5C and

3C higher because of climate change;

 Global temperatures for July were

1.2C above pre-industrial levels for

the month.

This last figure is particularly

alarming, as the IPCC has warned that

rises greater than 1.5C risk triggering

climatic de stabilisation while those

higher than 2C make such events

even more likely. “We are now getting

very close to some dangerous tipping

points in the behaviour of the climate

• but as this latest leaked report of
  the IPCC’s work reveals, it is going to
  be very diffi cult to achieve the cuts
  to prevent that happening,” said Bob
  Ward , policy director at the Grantham
  Research Institute on Climate Change
  and the Environment.
  The new IPCC report emphasises
  that land will have to be managed
  more sustainably so that it releases
  much less carbon than at present.
  Peat lands will need to be restored
  by halting drainage schemes; meat
  consumption will have to be cut to
  reduce methane production; while
  food waste will have to be reduced.
  Among the measures put forward
  by the report is the proposal of a major
  shift towards vegetarian and vegan

Robin McKie

Science Editor

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Magazine

Lucy Prebble

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pages 8-

High hopes

and spiky

songs with

Sam Fender

pages 18-

Analogue days:

memories of

pre-internet

childhoods

pages 15-

In today’s issue

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We must cha nge

food production

to save the planet,

says leaked report

diets. There also needs to be a big

change in how land is used, it adds.

Policies need to include “improved

access to markets, empowering

women farmers, expanding access

to agricultural services and strength-

ening land tenure security”, it states.

“Early warning systems for weather,

crop yields, and seasonal climate

events are also critical.”

The chances of politicians and

scientists achieving these goals are

uncertain, however. Nations are

scheduled to meet in late 2020, prob-

ably in the UK, at a key conference

where delegates will plant how to

achieve effective zero-carbon emis-

sion s over the next few decades.

The US, the second largest emitter

of greenhouse gases, will have just

had its presidential elections. A new

Democrat incumbent would likely

be sympathetic to moves to control

global heating. Re-election of Donald

Trump, who has called climate change

“a hoax”, would put a very different,

far gloomier perspective on hopes of

achieving a consensus.

ON OTHER PAGES

Th ere’s a better answer to falling

birth rates than having more kids

Observer Comment, page 40

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