Section:GDN 1J PaGe:1 Edition Date:190808 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 7/8/2019 18:56 cYanmaGentaYellowblac
T
he signifi cance of the trade war between
China and the US goes well beyond the
impact of tit-for-tat tariff s, or which
of two self-styled strongmen wins
the bragging rights. As was the case in
the 1930s, the seemingly inexorable
drift towards protectionism is part
of a deeper crisis of the international
status quo. When Beijing this week accused the US of
“deliberately destroying the international order”, it
was really saying that US hegemony will no longer go
unchallenged. Globalisation as we have known it is
coming to an end and that’s by no means unwelcome.
Hailed as the ultimate in human progress, a model
based on loosening the controls on capital and the
construction of global supply chains has spawned
recurrent fi nancial crises, fostered corrosive inequality
and worsened the climate emergency. True, millions
of people have been lifted out of poverty in the past 25
years, but most of them live in a country – China – that
has kept the market at arm’s-length.
The world’s stock markets see things diff erently. They
tremble every time Donald Trump tweets a paean to
protectionism. Likewise, multi national corporations
fret about the possible damage that trade barriers mightcause to global supply chains. It is clear that those who
have done best out of globalisation tend to be the rich
and powerful, and they are not going to give up their
privileges without a fi ght. Nothing in this is new.
Throughout history there have been successive waves
of globalisation followed by a backlash when the model
over-reache d itself. This is one of those occasions and
all the ingredients are in place for a struggle between
the defenders of the status quo and those who say that
recent trends in politics, technology and the climate
point to the need for a new world order focused more on
local solutions, stronger nation states and a reformed
international system. It’s quite a stretch to imagine that
Trump has this in mind when he is bashing China, but
the economic crisis of the 1930s – of which protectionism
was one part – led eventually, albeit after the war, to
reforms that made the world a sounder and safer place.
The challenge is to make sure crisis again leads to
change, and that process starts with an honest appraisal
of the mess we are in. For more than a decade, ever since
the fi nancial crash of 2008 , there has been a frantic
attempt to put globalisation back on its feet and return
to the status quo ante. Trump is proof that
those attempts have ended in failure.
In retrospect, the early 1990s markedDeal or no deal: it’s not up to Dominic Cummings Martin Kettle, page 4
How can a man be too straight to recycle? Owen Jones, page 5
My generation’s failure to liberate Palestine The long read, page 9
The Guardian
ILLUSTRATION:
THOMAS PULLINThursday 8 August 2019
Globalisation
as we know it is
over. And that’s
a good thing
Opinion
and ideasG2
Daily
pullout
life &
arts
section
InsideLarry
Elliott
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