India, and the world, stand to su ffer if the US-Iran Persian Gulf stand-off gets out of hand
Strait O f Uncertainty
annual remittance they send helps in
pay ing a substantial part of the country’s
oil bill; it contributes to the live li hood and
welfare of millions of Indian families.
For India, it is crucial to have good rela-
tions with Iran. Their engagement goes
bey ond energy, as they cooperate on the
Chabahar port that allows India access to
Afghanistan and Central Asia. Moreover,
if Delhi moves away from Tehran, it all-
ows the latter to iron out its differences
with Pakistan and build a stronger rela-
tion—something not in India’s interest.
“The ongoing uncertainty has already
started adding pressure on the price of oil.
Any deterioration will make the situation
worse for us,” says former Indian diplo-
mat Navtej Sarna, who was India’s ambas-
sador to both Iran and the US.
US secretary of State Mike Pompeo, one
of Trump’s close advisors on Iran spent
June 26 in New Delhi, meeting his Indian
counterpart S. Jaishankar, before calling
on PM Narendra Modi. The two sides
dis cussed bilateral, regional and some ofallowing it to resume trade and com-
merce to strengthen its ailing economy.
But Trump, who had rubbished the
agreement as the ‘worst deal’ even during
his presidential election campaign, with-
drew from the JCPOA that his predeces-
sor Barack Obama had signed on in May- The situation, however, worsened
further from May 8, 2019, the first anni-
versary of the US withdrawal from the
Plan of Action, when Trump decided to
reimpose sanctions on Iran. Soon after,
four oil tankers (including two Saudi
ships) were attacked in the Gulf of Oman
by unidentified sou rces that the US and
its allies suspected to be Iranian ‘proxies’.
Reacting to it, the Trump administration
announced the movement of USS Arli-
ngton—that transports US marines, vehi-
cles and other military hardware (helping
in amphibious assaults)—and a Patriot
battery to the area along with 1,000
troops. This is in addition to the 15,000
soldiers stationed in West Asia in the
Central Com mand (CENTCOM) that
extremely capable. , in an armed confron-
tation it will be no pushover,” says Ahmad.
He feels that Trump was averse to getting
into a fresh West Asia conflict, especially
since he had promised voters to get US
troops back from Afghanistan and Iraq.
Historian Srinath Raghavan does not
rule out the possibility of a forthcoming
phase of instability and violence in the
Persian Gulf. “The developments have
only strengthened hardliners in Iran,
who were all along sceptical of any
agreement with the Americans.”
Moreover, Trump’s close aides and
allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the
UAE could egg him on to opt for the
military option. Yet Iran, which had
been under US sanctions since 1979,
is as tough a cookie as obtains under
the circumstances—it has not crumbled
despite pressure and has shown imm-Though the US did not
go for a strike after its
drone was shot down
by Iran, Trump imposed
more sanctions, even as
he talked of diplomacy.the looming global challenges. Presu-
mably, it also allowed some clarity on Iran.
A possible Trump-Modi meeting on the
sidelines of the G20 Summit in Tokyo at
the end of June is being worked out that
would allow the two leaders to reaffirm
their commitment to further strengthen
India-US relations.
Former diplomat Talmiz Ahmad feels
that India should forcibly make its posi-
tion known to the US. “India is a str ong
country and it is about time it comes out
of the American yoke and tell it clearly
how its policy in the Persian Gulf was
damaging Indian interest,” he says.
The nub of the problem is over the 2015
nuclear agreement that Iran had signed
with the US and other Western nations.
Formally known as the Joint Compre-
hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it put
Iran’s nuclear facilities under interna-
tional scrutiny and addressed widespread
concerns about an Iranian nuclear bomb.
In exchange, the agreement assured the
lifting of US and other sanctions on Iran,looks after US interests in the Gulf.
But tension reached fever pitch last
week when the US drone was shot down
by Iranian forces. A US airstrike was on
the cards, but Trump apparently pulled
back at the last minute as it could have
killed around 150 people, deemed by him
to be “not proportionate” to the attack on
the unmanned drone. Trump also added
defiantly that he was “in no hurry” to
confront Iran.i
NDEPENDENT sources, however, say
the drone was downed after several
warnings and on entering Iranian
airspace. Iran claims that an US Navy
aircraft with a crew of 35 and flying close
to the drone was not targeted. Though
these actions might suggest that neither
the US nor Iran wants a conflict, the
situation in the Gulf remains uncertain.
Opinion is divided on the restraint
shown by the US. “The downing of the
sophisticated US drone showed that des-
pite years of isolation, the Ira nian army isense resilience to fight back.
Raghavan does not rule out the possibil-
ity of a phase of “tanker-wars” in the reg-
ion, as in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq
war. It may not erupt into a full-fledged
war, but armed scuffles targeting each
other’s assets are a possibility. “The big-
gest casualty of recent developments is
the absence of trust among the conten-
ders,” says Raghavan. “Even if they even-
tually negotiate, would they be able to
trust each other for a future deal to work?”
It’s a question of vital importance—the
JCPOA took back-breaking work before
being finalised; US suspicion undid all of
that. A bedrock of trust has to be laid bef-
ore restoring peace in the Persian Gulf. Ogetty images8 July 2019 OutlOOk 29