01 August 2019 | SHARES | 21WHY HAS THE SHARE PRICE BEEN WEAK?
ĞLJŽŶĚƚŚĞŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞǀŽůĂƟůŝƚLJǁŚŝĐŚŚĂƐŚŝƚ
ŵŽƐƚŽĨƚŚĞǁŝĚĞƌƐĞĐƚŽƌƚŚĞƌĞŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶ
ƐĞǀĞƌĂůĐŽŵƉĂŶLJͲƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŝƐƐƵĞƐǁĞŝŐŚŝŶŐŽŶ
ĂŝƌŶ͛ƐƐŚĂƌĞƉƌŝĐĞ͘<ĞLJŚĂƐďĞĞŶĂŚŽůĚͲƵƉŝŶ
ĂƌďŝƚƌĂƟŽŶƉƌŽĐĞĞĚŝŶŐƐŽǀĞƌĂůŽŶŐͲƌƵŶŶŝŶŐ
/ŶĚŝĂŶƚĂdžĚŝƐƉƵƚĞ͕ǁŚĞƌĞĂŝƌŶŝƐƐĞĞŬŝŶŐΨϭ͘κďŶ
ŝŶĐŽŵƉĞŶƐĂƟŽŶ͘
ƌĞƐĞƌǀĞƐĚŽǁŶŐƌĂĚĞĨŽƌŝƚƐ<ƌĂŬĞŶĮĞůĚŝŶ
ƚŚĞEŽƌƚŚ^ĞĂĞĂƌůŝĞƌƚŚŝƐLJĞĂƌĚŝĚůŝƩůĞƚŽŚĞůƉ
ƐĞŶƟŵĞŶƚ͕ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJĂƐǁƌŝƚĞͲŽīƐĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚ
ǁŝƚŚďŽƚŚƚŚĞƐĞƐĞƚďĂĐŬƐƐĂǁƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƉŽƐƚ
ĂΨϭ͘ϮϳďŶŶĞƚůŽƐƐŝŶDĂƌĐŚ͘DŽƌĞƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJƚŚĞ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚĂĚŝƐĂƉƉŽŝŶƟŶŐƌĞƐƵůƚĨƌŽŵ
ŝƚƐ>LJŶŐŚĂƵŐǁĞůůŝŶEŽƌǁĂLJ͘
dŚĞƌĞŚĂƐĂůƐŽďĞĞŶĂƐůŝŐŚƚĚĞůĂLJŝŶƚŚĞĮŶĂů
ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶŽŶŝƚƐŚŝŐŚůLJƉƌŝnjĞĚ^E
ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŝŶ^ĞŶĞŐĂů͘&ƵŶĚŝŶŐƚŚŝƐƉƌŽũĞĐƚ
ŵŝŐŚƚƌĞƋƵŝƌĞďƌŝŶŐŝŶŐŝŶĂŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƉĂƌƚŶĞƌ
ĂŶĚƐĞůůŝŶŐĚŽǁŶƐŽŵĞŽĨŝƚƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚκϬйƐƚĂŬĞ͘
WHAT COULD SPARK A RE-RATING?
/ĨƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƉĂƌƚŽĨϮϬϭεŚĂƐƐĞĞŶĂƌƵŶŽĨĂ
bad news then there are reasons to feel more
ƉŽƐŝƟǀĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƌĞŵĂŝŶĚĞƌŽĨƚŚĞLJĞĂƌĂŶĚ
ǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƐŚĂƌĞƐƚƌĂĚŝŶŐĐůŽƐĞƚŽŵƵůƟͲLJĞĂƌůŽǁƐ
ĂŝƌŶĐŽƵůĚĞŶũŽLJĂƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƐĞĐŽŶĚͲŚĂůĨďƵŵƉ͘
ƉƌŝĐĞͲƚŽͲĞĂƌŶŝŶŐƐƌĂƟŽŽĨϭς͘ΘͲƟŵĞƐŝƐ
ŚŝŐŚĞƌƚŚĂŶLJŽƵŵŝŐŚƚŝŵĂŐŝŶĞŐŝǀĞŶƚŚĞƌĞĐĞŶƚ
ďĂĚŶĞǁƐ͕LJĞƚƚŚŝƐƌĂƟŶŐƌĞŇĞĐƚƐƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͛Ɛ
ĐŽŶƟŶƵŝŶŐŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚŝŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ
ĞdžƉůŽƌĂƟŽŶĂƐƐĞƚƐ͘
ŶĐŽƵƌĂŐŝŶŐůLJƚŚĞďĂůĂŶĐĞƐŚĞĞƚŝƐŝŶƌƵĚĞ
ŚĞĂůƚŚ͕ǁŝƚŚΨςςŵŽĨĐĂƐŚĂƚƚŚĞůĂƐƚĐŽƵŶƚĂŶĚ
ũƵƐƚΨΘρŵĚƌĂǁŶĨƌŽŵĂΨρϳρŵƌĞƐĞƌǀĞƐͲďĂƐĞĚ
ůĞŶĚŝŶŐĨĂĐŝůŝƚLJ͘
/ŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĐĂƚĂůLJƐƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞƐŚĂƌĞ
ƉƌŝĐĞ͕ĂŵƵůƟͲǁĞůůĚƌŝůůŝŶŐĐĂŵƉĂŝŐŶŝŶDĞdžŝĐŽ
ƚĂƌŐĞƟŶŐƵƉǁĂƌĚƐŽĨρϬϬŵďĂƌƌĞůƐŽĨŽŝů
ĞƋƵŝǀĂůĞŶƚĐŽƵůĚŚĂǀĞĂƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƉŽƐŝƟǀĞ
ŝŵƉĂĐƚŽŶƚŚĞƐŚĂƌĞƉƌŝĐĞŝŶƚŚĞĞǀĞŶƚŽĨƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ͘
/ŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽŐĞƚƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚďĂĐŬŽŶƐŝĚĞ͕ĂŝƌŶ
ŶĞĞĚƐƚŽĚĞůŝǀĞƌƐƚƌŽŶŐŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ
ĂŶĚƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶĨƌŽŵŝƚƐEŽƌƚŚ^ĞĂŽŝů
ĮĞůĚƐĂƚĐŚĞƌĂŶĚ<ƌĂŬĞŶ͕ĂŶĚƚŚŝƐŝƐůŝŬĞůLJƚŽďĞ
ŝŶĨŽĐƵƐǁŚĞŶƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞƐŝƚƐĮƌƐƚͲ
ŚĂůĨLJĞĂƌƌĞƐƵůƚƐŽŶϭϬ^ĞƉƚĞŵďĞƌ͘
ĞůŝďĞƌĂƟŽŶƐŽŶƚŚĞ/ŶĚŝĂŶƚĂdžĐĂƐĞĂƌĞŶŽƚ
ůŝŬĞůLJƚŽĐŽŶĐůƵĚĞƵŶƟůƚŚĞĞŶĚŽĨƚŚĞLJĞĂƌďƵƚ
a successful outcome could be worth as much
ĂƐϭεϬƉƉĞƌƐŚĂƌĞ͘,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ĞdžƉĞĐƟŶŐ/ŶĚŝĂ
ƚŽĂďŝĚĞďLJĂŶLJƌƵůŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͛ƐĨĂǀŽƵƌ
ŵŝŐŚƚďĞǁŝƐŚĨƵůƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ͘ƚůĞĂƐƚĂŝƌŶŝƐ
ƉƌŽƚĞĐƚĞĚĨƌŽŵĂŶLJƵŶĨĂǀŽƵƌĂďůĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶǁŚŝĐŚ
ǁŽƵůĚďĞƌŝŶŐͲĨĞŶĐĞĚƚŽƚŚĞ/ŶĚŝĂŶŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐ͘CAIRN
ENERGY
(CNE) 162.6p
BUY
2016 2017 2018 2019160200240280
CAIRN ENERGY