13FANTASYWHAT MOST
CLOSERS HAVE
IN COMMON
Four out of five big league closers
had a starter’s pedigree in pro ballby MATT EDDYT
he attributes required to profile as a major league closer
are as follows: one dominant pitch, a second plus pitch,
plus command and plus-plus makeup.
That’s according to the scouting profile presented in
our Prospect Handbook, which spells out which tools and attri-
butes are prioritized at each position.
But there’s a fifth attribute that a vast majority of big league
closers have in common: rotation pedigree.
Roughly four out of every five big league closers worked as a
starter in pro ball, even if only briefly or only if exclusively in the
low minor leagues.
While saves may not be the best indicator of overall reliever
quality, they are a vitally important category in most fantasy
formats. Saves account for 20 percent of pitcher value in the
typical 5x5 league.
Therefore, acquiring closers is critical to building a well-bal-
anced fantasy team, and speculating on pitchers who might one
day accumulate saves is a worthwhile endeavor.
You can increase your odds of landing a future closer if you
keep one thing in mind. Pitchers with a background in the rota-
tion—however brief—tend to become more stable closers than
those who don’t.
Baseball America studied all the big league pitchers to amass
10 or more career saves since 2014. We found that 81 out of the
108 pitchers (75 percent) had worked as a starting pitcher in pro
ball. Forty-one of them (38 percent) even made starts in the
majors.
Seven of the closers in our sample converted from field
positions to the mound after turning pro—Kenley Jansen, Joe
Nathan, Rafael Soriano, Blake Parker, Pedro Strop, Mychal
Givens, Matt Bush—thus diminishing their chances to be devel-
oped as starters when they were in the minors. (Note that Nathan
and Soriano did in fact work as starters and even reached the majors
in that role. Things were different in the early 2000s.)
Sean Doolittle is the ultimate gray area. Drafted as a first
baseman, he spent his first four pro seasons as a position player
before moving to the mound in 2011. Yet, Doolittle played both
ways at Virginia and made 30 college starts—so he is classified
as a true pitcher rather than a conversion guy because of his
background.
Removing the seven converted pitchers from the closer sample
yields 79 closers out of 101 (78 percent) who worked as starters in
pro ball. This group can be viewed as the modern closer arche-
type. They signed as starting pitchers but for a combination of
reasons—lack of a third pitch, poor control, questionable stami-
na or trouble holding runners—shifted to the bullpen in pro ballRIGHT: Roughly 80 per-
cent of players who sign
as pitchers and develop
into successful big
league closers worked
as starting pitchers
in the minor leagues.
That includes Aroldis
Chapman, pictured here
with Triple-A Louisville
in 2010. He started
13 games that season
before becoming the
Reds’ closer in 2012.
LEFT: On the other hand,
Craig Kimbrel worked
primarily as a reliever in
junior college. He never
started a game in pro
ball before becoming the
most successful closer
of the 2010s. Kimbrel
is pictured at Double-A
Mississippi in 2009.BRIAN BISSELL; MIKE JANES/FS
and ultimately found success as major
league closers.
Most of the closers in our sample
started between one and 75 games in the
minors. However, no correlation exists
between the number of minor league
starts and the quality of major league
career. In fact, eight of the top 30 most
accomplished closers started zero games
as a professional, including No. 2 Craig
Kimbrel, No. 5 Cody Allen, No. 6 Mark
Melancon and No. 10 David Robertson.
(Note: I made an effort to remove rehab
appearances from my count of pro starts.)
Breaking down the top 30 closers in
terms of saves, we see an even distribu-
tion of college (12) and international (11)
signees, but few from high school (four)
or junior college (three).
Among the closers with zero minor
league starts are Kimbrel (194 saves
since 2014), Allen (151), Melancon (145),
Robertson (129), AJ Ramos (99), Huston
Street (90), Sean Doolittle (87), Steve
Cishek (77) and Corey Knebel (57). All
these examples are college—or in the
case of Kimbrel—junior college pitchers.
Of the group, only Allen and Doolittle
were working primarily as starters when
drafted. The others were on reliever
tracks from the get-go.
On the flip side of the coin, the fol-
lowing accomplished closers worked as
starters in pro ball: Aroldis Chapman
(172 saves since 2014), Fernando Rodney
(153), Zack Britton (144), Francisco
Rodriguez (133), Greg Holland (130),
Wade Davis (129), Roberto Osuna (128),
Jeurys Familia (123), Edwin Diaz (121),
Trevor Rosenthal (118), Alex Colome(105), Santiago Casilla (105) and Ken
Giles (101).
Of this group, just Chapman, Holland
and Giles were shifted quickly to the
bullpen and fast-tracked in that role. The
others spent multiple seasons developing
as starters.
This group leans heavily toward inter-
national free agents and high school
starters-turned-pro relievers. The only
collegian in the group is Holland—who
ironically worked only as a reliever at
Western Carolina—while Rosenthal and
Giles come from the JC ranks.
Even 5-foot-10 Kirby Yates, who
signed as a nondrafted free agent out of
Yavapai (Ariz.) JC, worked as a starter
through low Class A.
So what this means for fantasy players
is that choosing a future closer candidate
on which to speculate is often as simple
as choosing one with a starter’s pedigree
in pro ball. nMLB Closers’
Starter Pedigree
A closer look at how much time our
sample of 101 successful closers put
in as starters in the minors.
They are sorted into 25-man buckets.Minor League Starts MLB Closers
150+ 1
125-149 10
100-124 10
75-99 8
50-74 21
25-49 14
1-24 15
Zero 22