It’s the same pattern through which the Russians have captured key elements of former vassal states – even
members of the European Union and Nato – with strategic business deals in key sectors and political
alliances as part of what scholars have called the “Kremlin Playbook”, Moscow’s method for turning
economic power into political influence and strategic advantage in countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and
Serbia.
The United States last month kicked Turkey out of the programme to build and deploy advanced F-35
fighter jets after Ankara ignored Washington’s warnings and began taking delivery of Russian S-400 missile
defence systems. In recent days, dozens of Turkish pilots and military personnel training on the F-35s in the
US were forced to return home.
More sanctions may be coming, as mandated by the US congress. Some in Washington, angered by Turkish
behaviour on a number of regional domestic issues, argue for even stronger punishments. That’s music to
the ears of Vladimir Putin.
For the Kremlin, Turkey is a cherished prize. Russia has worried for centuries about free passage through
the straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles, through which its Black Sea warships and mercantile vessels can
access the rest of the world. Even now, Russia complains when even a new buoy appears along the narrow
Bosphorus which cuts through Istanbul.
During the Cold War, Turkey was firmly within the Nato orbit, a militantly capitalist state ideologically
opposed to the communist experiment to the north as well as instinctively fearful of Russian imperial
ambitions. But all the old rules and calculations changed after Soviet Union’s collapse.
A former western diplomat described how Russia’s state-owned Gazprom seduced Turkish officials in the
late 1990s into signing the Blue Stream gas pipeline deal that bypassed transit countries. The US argued
against it, but Turkey signed anyway. Among the tools in Russia’s arsenal was a private jet filled with
prostitutes, according to the former diplomat.
Moscow has a method for turning economic power into political influence
and strategic advantage in key countries like Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia
Like in the Balkans, Russia has also sought out investments in both the telecommunications and banking
sectors. Sberbank, run by a Putin ally, bought Turkey’s Deniz Bank, using it for years as a conduit to evade
sanctions, but is withdrawing, likely after realising such investments offer neither strategic leverage nor
massive returns within Turkey’s competitive and relatively transparent finance and communications
sectors.
Turkey and Russia agreed to form a joint $1bn investment fund this year, in what represents another
attempt to solidify the ties between the two countries. But for Russia, the real strategic power play in
Turkey is neither the S-400 deal, the investment fund, or Russian citizenry’s modest investments in real
estate. It’s in the energy sector.
Russia’s Gazprom and Turkey are building yet another pipeline across the Black Sea, Turkstream, which
will further tighten the bonds between the two countries and allow Russia to bypass Ukraine. Russia’s state-
owned Rosatom is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, along the country’s southeastern
shores. Russia won the contract for the plant in 2010 over a number of rival firms. Construction began last
year. But it was the amendments to the deal quietly slipped into the contract in March and published in the
official Turkish gazette that hints at the Kremlin’s strategic aims, and show how Ankara is being snookered