◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek August 5, 201934
● A researchexemptionallowsthesiteto
takebetsonU.S.electionsPredictIt Has the
Odds on 2020
VotingintheDemocraticprimariesdoesn’tstart
forsixmonths.Candidateshaveyettotrektothe
IowaStateFairfortheirobligatorydeep-friedphoto
opportunities,andmanyvotersareonlyjustwaking
uptotheelectionloominginthefallof2020.Buton
PredictIt,a political-bettingwebsitebuiltbya group
ofresearchersinNewZealand,a shadowprimary
hasalreadybeenragingformonths.
FormerU.S.RepresentativeBetoO’Rourkeof
Texaswastheearlyfront-runner,withtradersgiv-
inghima 20%chanceofwinningasofJanuary.
CaliforniaSenatorKamalaHarrispassedhimlater
thatmonthwhenshemadehercandidacyofficial,
butbyMarch,SenatorBernieSandersofVermont
wastheleader.Harrismovedbackintothefront
aftercallingoutformerVicePresidentJoeBidenin
theirfirstdebateforpraisingthegenteelsegregation-
istsenatorsofthepast,andthetwowereneckand
neckheadingintotheirsecondfaceoffonJuly31.
Since itwentliveinlate2014,PredictIthas
becomethego-toplacetogambleonU.S.politics.
Thesitemakesit aseasytowageronhowmany
tweetsPresidentTrumpwillsendthisweekasit
istobuya stockonETrade.Tradingvolumehas
beenrunningatabout 250 millionsharesperyear,
estimatesJonHartley,aneconomicswriterand
researcher,witheachsharerepresentinga poten-
tialpayoffof$1.(PredictItsaysthatfigureisn’taccu-
rateandwon’tshareitsownnumbers,butHartley
saysit’sderivedfromdataprovidedbythesite.)THEBOTTOMLINE Mexico’spresidenthaspledgedtorootout
corruptionandmovedtostoptheflowofmigrantsthroughthe
country,buthestillfacescallsformorespendingandmoregrowth.a Republican,andmyself,I havea progressive
politicalstancewitha socialdimension,a national-
istposition,I thinkwecanunderstandeachother.
We’vetalkedthree,fourtimesonthephone.The
mostcomplicatedissuewasthisrecenttopic,the
tariffthreat.Andwereachedanagreement.
CanwelookattheMexicaneconomy?Youwerehop-
ingforit togrowat4%.Thisweek,therewereworries
youmaygointorecession.DoyouthinkMexicowill
gointorecessionthisyear?
No,no.We’redoingfine.Theeconomyis not
growingaswewouldwantit to,butontheother
hand,wehaveotherindicatorsthatshowthat
theeconomyisfine.Forinstance,thepesohas
strengthened.Letmeclarifythis:I mentioneda
4%averageinmysix-yearterm,not4%ina year’s
time.Forecastersmaysay,“Howcanyougofrom
2%to4%inMexico?”Well,beforetheneoliberal
period,for 50 yearssincetheMexicanRevolution,
wegrewat5%or6%a yearwithnodevaluationand
noinflation.TheMexicanmiracleintheeconomy—
that’swhatwewant.
Butcanyouhavea Mexicanmiraclewithinterest
ratesat8.25%?I knowyouhavebeengoodatnot
interferinginthecentralbank,butdoyouthinkthat
interestratesaretoohigh?
Yes,butlook,I’mrespectfuloftheautonomy
ofthecentralbank.They’remorecautiousabout
inflation.That’snota badthing.Butit’simport-
anttolowerratestokick-starttheeconomy.This
is anissuethatweareleavingforthecentralbank
todecide,becausewetrustwe’lldelivernotonly
growth,butalsodevelopment.Wewanttocreate
newparadigms.Growthcreateswealthbutdoesn’t
necessarilydistributewealth.Developmentis grow-
inganddistributingwealth.
WhenmostpeoplefromtheLeftcometopower,they
tendtospendmoney,butyouhavefollowedpoliciesof
austerity.Someofyourcriticssayyoucaretoomuch
aboutthesurplusandthatis onereasonwhytheecon-
omyisnotgrowing.Doyouacceptthat?
Well,that’sthenewparadigm.Thefirstproblem
ofMexicois corruption—Icantellyouthattoday,
nocorruptionis tolerated.
OntheLeft,peoplethinkthatausterityisfir-
ingpeople.Onetime,I wastalkingtotheLabour
leader,Mr.JeremyCorbynoftheUnitedKingdom,
myfriend.Hesaid,“Howcanyoutalkaboutauster-
ity?I don’tunderstand.”AusterityforusMexicans,
however,is inspiredbyPresidentBenitoJuárez,who
usedtosaythatpublicofficialshadtolearntolive
inthemiddle,withoutanyluxuries.Buta lotwas
beingspentinsupportingthegovernment. Former
presidents of Mexico had pensions that amounted
to more than any former president receives in anypartoftheworld.TheMexicanpresidentwasbeing
protectedby8,000security guards of the presiden-
tial security detail, who made more than any sol-
diers. All this was canceled. That’s austerity.
This interview has been condensed and edited for
clarity. López Obrador’s answers have been trans-
lated from Spanish.