those who mainly voted Leave in the referendum. Multiple studies have shown this.
According to a December 2016 report by NatCen, typical Leave voters had an income of less than £1,200
per month, which corresponds to the poorest fifth of the UK population in the Resolution Foundation
report.
A study by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published in August 2016 said the poorest households, with
incomes of less than £20,000 per year (or under £1,700 per month), were much more likely to support
leaving the EU than the wealthiest households.
Research by University of Warwick published last year found that voting Leave was associated with
receiving benefits and low educational attainment, among other characteristics.
There is a caveat: the Leave vote was also partly driven by what NatCen calls “affluent Eurosceptics” –
middle-class, Conservative voters with anti-welfare views. The rough equivalent of this group in a 2017
study by Ipsos Mori is described as “culturally anxious Leavers” who are older, concerned about
immigration and relatively well-off.
The “well-off and older” description can certainly be applied to Johnson’s cabinet, a quarter of which is
made up by actual Leave campaigners. Luckily for them, it looks like their personal finances won’t suffer
much from any Brexit-induced recession.
The same can’t be said for the majority of Leave voters, conscripted by the likes of Johnson and Michael
Gove in 2016 to add electoral heft to their dash for the EU exit. When recession bites, the pain will be real,
and the blame should be shouldered by the architects now in No 10 and in the cabinet.