another strongly pro-EU part of the UK being dragged out of the EU, rather than some partnership of
equals. The solution would be to grant Scotland (and possibly Wales and Northern Ireland) a veto in a
second referendum. That would help preserve the UK.
But then there’s money. Brexit will mean a huge economic hit to Scotland, but it will, if it does happen at
all, be over by the time indyref2 gets underway. Indeed it might even be over on the evening of 31 October.
A no-deal Brexit will inflict an even heavier financial cost on Scottish businesses, people and public
services. All true, but then would the Scottish people want to get themselves kicked up the bahookie again
by severing their economic links with England? They might hate the English (understandable), but would
they want their cars and lorries stuck on the new international EU (Scotland)-England border from days on
end? Do they want tariffs on Scotch? Does anyone in their right mind?
Mirroring Brexit, geography and economics count for much in this indyref2 debate, as we saw in 2014. I
hope not disparagingly, I was surprised at how much of the debate then was about whether the Scots would
be worse or better off by sticking in the UK – there was less talk about national pride and self-
determination. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn’t augur so well for a post-Brexit poll, because the
Scottish people would already be suffering financially from the immediate Brexit shock. There is no way
that Brussels or the EU can make up for lost trade and income as Scotland leaves the UK and enters the EU,
with most of what it imports and exports to and from Europe travelling via English ports and bought in the
rest of the UK.
For the moment the referendum might be delayed, or lost by the SNP,
simply because of the chaos caused by Brexit, but it will come eventually,
and it will be acrimonious
What’s more, as Johnson teases them, they would have to commit to joining the euro and giving up
exclusive rights to Scottish fisheries. There you go.
The shame of it is that the debate about Scottish independence south of the border is virtually non-existent.
Asked about the subject, most of the English simply shrug, regarding it as purely a matter for the Scots.
They are not bothered, I’m afraid, and the Conservatives even less. Many I am sorry to say agree with the
prospective Conservative candidate in Bedford, a Ryan Henson. In 2014 he wrote that: “Scotland’s single
biggest offering to the union over the past 50 years has been to provide the Labour Party with parliamentary
lobby fodder.
“In exchange, the people of England have seen their prescriptions and their university fees go up, while in
Scotland both have been abolished – using English taxes to pay for it.
“Like a marauding tribe from the Dark Ages, Scottish Labour MPs have travelled south every four years to
pillage their hard-working, wealthier and more politically sound neighbours. Enough is enough.”
And that, you see, is the root of the problem. For the moment the referendum might be delayed, or lost by
the SNP, simply because of the chaos caused by Brexit, but it will come eventually, and it will be
acrimonious. The marriage is over, even if the two parties can’t quite believe it. They will both be poorer
and they won’t agree on the divorce terms. It will end in tears. Sounds familiar.