48 THE WEEK • AUGUST 4, 2019
POLITICS
KARNATAKATHE BJP AND STABILITY
The BJP, which takes pride in being a “party with a
difference”, now runs the risk of becoming a party with
differences. As insiders pointed out, the BJP opening its
doors to party hoppers, especially rebels, will change
the party’s DNA as the outsiders might not subscribe to
the party ideology. “The influx of ambitious leaders from
the Congress and JD(S) is sure to upset party loyalists,”
warned a senior BJP leader. “Electoral and political
compulsions should not disturb the cohesion within
the party. The rebels would demand cabinet berths and
other positions, which, if not fulfilled, might trigger a
political crisis once again. It is a never-ending cycle of
rebellion and political instability.”
Earlier, in an emotional speech during the trust vote,
Shivakumar, too, had warned the BJP. “I am hurt by the
developments as our own people have backstabbed us,”
he told Yeddyurappa. “Your happiness will be short-
lived as the rebels who are jumping ship to the BJP today
are not known to remain loyal to the party. You will meet
with the same fate.”
Yeddyurappa, on his part, said, “It is the victory of
democracy. People were fed up of the Kumaraswamy
government. I promise the people a new era of develop-
ment. We also assure our farmers of a better life.”THREE PARTIES, THREE DESTINIES
The Congress camp seems relieved more than aggrieved,
as many felt that the Lok Sabha debacle, where BJP
swept 25 of 28 seats, including in Old Mysore, was a
warning sign for both allies. “The Congress was not en-
joying power in the coalition as it was the junior partner,”
said a Congress leader. “The party is accruing anti-in-
cumbency and staking its own survival in this alliance as
both parties thrive on the same (Ahinda) vote bank.”
The JD(S), which was hoping that the coalition would
energise the party at the grassroots level for a longer
haul, has suffered a heartbreak. The longer it stays in the
opposition, the tougher it will get for the regional party
to hold itself together.
The BJP, meanwhile, has many hurdles to overcome.
First, the stability of the BJP government depends on
the speaker’s decision to either accept the resignations
of rebels or disqualify them or do either based on the
merits of each case. If the speaker chooses to accept
all resignations, the house strength will reduce to 209
and the BJP, which has the support of two independ-
ents, will have a clear majority, on its own. On the other
hand, if the speaker delays his ruling on resignations,
the house strength will remain 224 and the BJP will
need 113 to form the government. However, if the rebels
skip the house during the floor test once again, the BJP
can win the trust vote and form the government. If thespeaker rejects the resignations, he would have
to give reasons for the decision, which can be
challenged in court. The BJP might even move
a no-confidence vote against the speaker, and
elect one of its own to the post. The rebels will be
free to join the BJP government as ministers even
before facing byelections if their resignations are
accepted. But, if disqualified, they will first have
to contest byelections. The disqualification can
also be challenged in court.
For now, the BJP needs to tread with caution.
Among its many problems is the mass influx of
“outsiders” that threatens to upset the “insiders”,
a smooth transfer of leadership (Yeddyurappa
is 76), the worsening agrarian crisis in the state
and, of course, growing factionalism. Moreover,
there is the burden of a tumultuous past, when
the BJP’s first government in south India saw its
chief minister and several ministers ending up in
jail on charges of corruption. Much has hap-
pened since then, and a strong central leader-
ship could be the saviour this time.
However, the state unit has battles left to fight,
within and outside.BHANU PRAKASH CHANDRA