The Guardian - 07.08.2019

Section:GDN 1N PaGe:11 Edition Date:190807 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 6/8/2019 20:57 cYanmaGentaYellowbl

Wednesday 7 August 2019 The Guardian •

11

Peter Walker

Political correspondent

Brexit will bring “a huge series of

upsides” for the UK in world trade,

Dominic Raab has promised at the

start of a symbolically important trip

to North America, during which he will

press the White House for a rapid deal.

The new foreign secretary was

due to meet Mike Pence, the vice-

president, in Washington late last

night, and hold talks today with Mike

Pompeo, the secretary of state. He will

then travel to Mexico.

Raab, a die-hard leave supporter,

Severin Carrell

Scotland editor

John McDonnell has said Labour

should allow Holyrood to stage a

second independence referendum

if MSPs vote for one, contradicting

party policy.

The shadow chancellor told an

event at the Edinburgh festival fringe

that his party should not try to block a

second vote on independence by with-

holding the legal powers to do so.

Interviewed by the broadcaster Iain

Dale, McDonnell said: “We would not

block something like that. We would

let the Scottish people decide. That’s

democracy.”

McDonnell admitted Labour was

split on the issue, but implied the UK

leadership agreed. “There are other

views within the party but that’s our

view,” he said.

His remarks, which follow a poll

on Monday showing 52% of Scottish

voters now backed independence ,

Trade deals

Leaving will bring a series of

upsides, says optimistic Raab

Scotland

McDonnell: I’d

back vote on

independence

contradict Scottish Labour policy and

the UK party’s position not to support

another independence plebiscite.

Under the current law, Holyrood

could only hold one if it is given the

power to do so by the UK government,

under section 30 of the Scotland Act.

The Conservative government has

repeatedly refused to give it such

authority, but Brexit and the growing

prospects of an early general election

has brought the question to the fore.

Jeremy Corbyn, UK Labour leader

and a close ally of McDonnell, has

repeatedly wavered on the issue but

has said that if he became prime min-

ister the party would “decide at the

time” on whether to authorise a vote.

Corbyn added, however: “We don’t

want another referendum, we don’t

think another referendum is a good

idea, and we’ll be very clear on why

we don’t think it’s a good idea.”

But McDonnell told Dale: “It will

be for the Scottish parliament and

▲ Dominic Raab met his Canadian counterpart, Chrystia Freeland, in Toronto

before going on to visit the US and then Mexico PHOTOGRAPH: MOE DOIRON/REUTERS

will be conscious of the need for posi-

tive words on a quick post-Brexit trade

deal from Washington.

Hopes for a new deal receded last

week when a powerful group of Con-

gress members said they would block

any deal if Brexit aff ects the Irish bor-

der and risks Northern Irish peace.

Ahead of his US trip, Raab met

Canad a’s foreign minister, Chrystia

Freeland, where he talked up trade

prospects in glowing if vague terms.

In Toronto, Raab told the BBC he

was bullish about the future: “There’s

a huge series of upsides from Brexit,

particularly with a more ambitious and

energetic approach to our global role.”

He reiterated Boris Johnson’s warn-

ings about a likely no-deal departure if

the EU declined, as it has always said it

will, to rewrite the withdrawal agree-

ment and ditch the backstop insurance

policy for the Irish border. “We want to

get a deal with the EU. But we’re going

to be leaving if there’s no movement

from their side at the end of October,

come what may,” Raab said.

In comments ahead of a news con-

ference with Freeland, Raab said the

UK wanted “to ensure that everything

possible is in place to ensure continu-

ity of trade after Brexit”.

He said: “Chrystia and I agreed

on the need for seamless transition.

We’re going to be looking into taking

that work forward with offi cials in our

teams in the weeks ahead in the run-

up to the end of October.

“I’m pleased to be able to say in

Canada that, for the UK, Brexit is not

just about risk management, although

that’s important and I wouldn’t want

to be glib or not take that very seri-

ously. But it is also – and our prime

minister has been very clear about that

• also about grasping the enormous
  opportunities of our two countries.”
  Canadian coverage of the event
  focused on Freeland seeking UK
  support over the detention of two
  Canadian nationals in China, part of
  recent tensions between the countries.
  Ahead of Raab’s talks in the US, the
  country’s former Treasury secretary,
  Larry Summers, said he did not believe
  a “desperate” UK would manage to
  secure a good post-Brexit trade deal.
  Summers, a senior offi cial under
  Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, said
  the UK was in a weak position when it
  came to negotiating with trade part-
  ners. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today
  programme yesterday: “Britain has
  no leverage, Britain is desperate ... it
  needs an agreement very soon. When
  you have a desperate partner, that’s
  when you strike the hardest bargain.”

the Scottish people to decide that.

They will take a view about whether

they want another referendum ...

The Scottish parliament will come to

a considered view on that and they will

submit that to the government and the

English parliament itself.”

Ian Murray, a Scottish Labour MP

and critic of independence and Cor-

byn, accused McDonnell of an “utterly

irresponsible [and] thoughtless rant”,

which betrayed the party’s values.

“The Labour party is an internation-

alist party ... we should never seek to

appease nationalists – whether they

be for Brexit or Scottish independence

• who want to divide communi-
  ties and people,” Murray said. “John
  McDonnell has even bought into the
  nationalist narrative that Westminster
  is an ‘English parliament’, in an insult
  to the hard work carried out by Scot-
  tish MPs from every party.”
  Corbyn’s Scottish advisers insist
  he will not do a deal with the SNP by
  off ering them a second referendum
  in exchange for supporting a minority
  Labour government at Westminster.
  However, the SNP are certain to put
  that on the table in any such talks.
  McDonnell said Labour would
  not do any deals with other parties.
  “I think we’d form a minority gov-
  ernment, seek to implement our
  manifesto and we’d expect the other
  opposition parties and other MPs to
  vote for those policies, and if they
  don’t, we’ll go back to the country.”

▲ Shadow chancellor McDonnell

would ‘let the Scottish people decide’

Explained

Johnson’s no-deal standoff

Peter Walker

Political correspondent

1

Could MPs call – and win

• a vote of no confi dence
  in Boris Johnson?
  They can call one, and Labour
  has hinted strongly it will do
  so after the Commons returns
  in early September. Under the
  Fixed-term Parliaments Act of
  2011, the opposition can table a
  motion saying: “ This house has no
  confi dence in HM government.”
  Last week’s Brecon and Radnorshire
  byelection reduced Johnson’s
  working majority to one, and it is
  perfectly feasible that a dozen or
  more Conservative MPs could join
  opposition parties to vote against
  him if the only other option were
  no deal.

2

What would happen
then?
Unlike under the pre-2011 system,
losing a vote of no confi dence does
not automatically herald a likely
general election straight away.
Instead, the law introduces a 14-day
window in which the incumbent
prime minister can try to prove they
still command the support of the
Commons, or else a new majority
government can emerge. If neither
happens, there is an election.

3

Could an alternative
government be
formed?
Possibly, though there are many
political barriers. It seems unlikely
under Labour led by Jeremy
Corbyn, as there does not seem to
be suffi cient cross-party support
for him to enter No 10. One mooted
possibility would be for some form
of “national unity” government to
take power, perhaps temporarily,
to delay Brexit before an election
or a new EU referendum, led by a
consensual backbencher.
However, this would need
signifi cant numbers of Labour
and Tory MPs to break ranks and
join MPs from other parties, all
within a very brief window.

4

Could Johnson force
no deal by refusing to
resign?
The answer here is somewhere
between “ yes and no ” and “ who
knows?” As several experts and
observers have noted, the law does
not make it explicit that a prime
minister must resign if they lose
a no-confi dence vote, meaning
Johnson could theoretically sit out
the 14-day period before calling an
election, by which point 31 October
would be almost upon us.
However, as others point out,
the political pressure on him to
go would be huge and, given an

election would be imminent,

eff ectively squatting in Downing

Street to get your way would hardly

be the best image for the electorate.

Ultimately, prime minister s serve

at the request of the monarch, and

some have speculated that if a new,

unity government was shown to be

ready, and to command a Commons

majority, the Queen could dismiss

Johnson and invite a new prime

minister to form a government. It

is safe to say Buckingham Palace

would very much not enjoy being

put in such a position.

5

Could Johnson secure

no deal by ensuring it

happens mid election?

Under the law, the date of the

election following a no-confi dence

vote is a matter for the incumbent

PM, and given the time table – parlia-

ment returns from recess just over

eight weeks before Brexit – Johnson

could conceivably decide on a post-

31 October polling day.

Some no-deal objectors argue

that under the convention of

“purdah” , the election period

during which civil servants are

not supposed to push through any

major policy changes, no major

Brexit decisions could be taken.

However, Johnson could argue that

a no-deal departure on 31 October

is already the legal default, and so

is not a policy change. Either way, it

would be hugely messy and no fun

at all for senior civil servants, not

least how to communicate no-deal

preparations to the public amid

purdah, when politically

sensitive government messaging

is meant to stop.

6

Could rebel MPs

seize control of the

Commons order

paper?

In theory, yes – and this did happen

in March , when MPs hijacked

a government motion on the

next steps for Brexit, passing an

amendment tabled by the Tory

grandee Oliver Letwin to hold

indicative votes on a departure plan.

It is possible that backbenchers

could again circumvent the

executive and order Johnson

to seek a delay to Brexit, make

arrangements for a referendum,

or even – and this seems unlikely –

revoke the whole process.

However, this can only happen

if there is meaningful government

business on Brexit for MPs to

amend, and with no-deal seeming

the government’s intended course,

there might not be any. While there

are a series of bills before parliament

on post-Brexit arrangements for

areas such as fi sheries, agriculture

and immigration, No 10 has said it

does not believe these need to be

passed before 31 October. Another

route could be artifi cially creating

parliamentary time for, say, a

private member’s bill, but again,

this is not an easy process.

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