2019-08-03_The_Economist

26 The Americas The EconomistAugust 3rd 2019

OntheirwayintooroutoftheSimónBolívarInternationalAirportinCaracas

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vividtheyseemtobreathe.TheyaretheworkofCarlosCruz-Diez,a Venezuelanartist

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“kineticart”,whichappearstomove.HisworkgivesVenezuelans,whoareenduring

dictatorshipandeconomiccollapse,somethingtocelebrate.

Artthatmoves

M

artín vizcarra, Peru’s mild-man-

nered president, knows how to spring

a surprise. As he wound up his 94-minute

Independence Day speech to congress on

July 28th, he called on lawmakers to end

their terms, and his, a year early by voting

to hold a general election next April. Peru’s

32m citizens are crying out for “a new be-

ginning”, the president declared. They

should decide the country’s destiny “even

if this means that all of us have to go”.

Mr Vizcarra’s gambit is a sign of frustra-

tion. He became president 16 months ago,

when his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczyn-

ski, was forced out of office over allega-

tions that he had helped secure public con-

tracts for Odebrecht, a Brazilian

construction firm that has bribed officials

and politicians across Latin America. Mr

Vizcarra has spent most of that time trying

to reform a political and judicial system so

rotten that all living former presidents are

under house arrest, in jail or trying to avoid

that fate. Congress, whose largest party is

the opposition Popular Force (fp), has tried

to stop him.

It has not succeeded entirely. Last year

congress reluctantly passed four reforms

of politics and the judiciary. Three of those

were enacted after a referendum in Decem-

ber. They included barring sitting con-

gressmen from being re-elected. In April

this year Mr Vizcarra submitted another 12

political reforms. When congress resisted

he selected six that he deems vital. His pri-

ority is to empower a committee chosen by

the supreme court to decide whether a law-

maker charged with a crime would lose im-

munity from prosecution. Now, congress

itself makes that decision. It has so far re-

fused to enact Mr Vizcarra’s proposal and

has modified other reform ideas. For exam-

ple, it has delayed by ten years until 2031

the date for requiring parties to field equal

numbers of male and female candidates.

Until now, Mr Vizcarra has tried to deal

with congressional intransigence by sub-

mitting his government to votes of confi-

dence. These operate under peculiar rules

in Peru. A first government defeat in a pres-

idential term leads to the dissolution of the

cabinet and the appointment by the presi-

dent of a new one. That happened in Sep-

tember 2017, when Mr Kuczynski was still

president (and Mr Vizcarra was vice-presi-

dent). A second would trigger not only the

cabinet’s downfall but congressional elec-

tions, while leaving the president in office.

Mr Vizcarra used the leverage this gives

him in September last year. Congress voted

its confidence in his government, then en-

acted the first set of reforms he sought. He

tried the same tactic in June this year, with

less effect. Congress backed the govern-

ment but thwarted some reforms. Hence

Mr Vizcarra’s call for new general elections.

What will happen now is uncertain. Op-

position lawmakers want to get rid of the

president without leaving office them-

selves. Tamar Arimborgo, an fpcongress-

woman, called him a “dictator” for advo-

cating early elections. His foes could try to

impeach him. The vice-president, Mer-

cedes Aráoz, would then take his place.

But the constitution makes it hard to

take out the president in a surgical strike. If

Mr Vizcarra resigns, and induces Ms Aráoz

to follow, the president of congress would

be obliged to call general elections. Mr Viz-

carra could call for a third vote of confi-

dence. This would put congress in a quan-

dary. An endorsement of the government

would clear the way for the early vote that

Mr Vizcarra wants. A no-confidence vote

would allow him to call for a new legisla-

tive election. In either case, the 130 law-

makers would be out.

One way or another, Mr Vizcarra and the

current congress may well be gone next

year. Government ministers argue that the

country cannot afford another two years of

gridlock. The economy is adrift. gdpex-

panded by 1.5% in the first five months of

2019, compared with 4.9% in the same per-

iod a year ago, according to the central

bank. Mr Vizcarra is right to say that Peru

needs a functioning government.

But it is not clear that fresh elections

will provide one. More than 20 political

parties are registered to put up presidential

and congressional candidates. Many have

been tarnished by the Odebrecht scandal.

fpand apra, another leading opposition

party, have no credible presidential candi-

dates. fp’s founder and leader, Keiko Fuji-

mori, has been in detention since October

awaiting trial for accepting illegal contri-

butions from Odebrecht in 2011, when she

ran the first of two losing presidential cam-

paigns. apra’s long-time leader, Alan Gar-

cía, a former president, committed suicide

in April this year as he faced arrest for tak-

ing bribes from the Brazilian firm.

Mr Vizcarra does not have a party or a

political heir. When Ipsos, a pollster, asked

Peruvians recently for their views on 16 pol-

iticians, just one had an approval rating of

higher than 10%. That was George Forsyth,

a former football goalkeeper who since Jan-

uary has been mayor of La Victoria, a dis-

trict of Lima, Peru’s capital. A third of Peru-

vians support no politician. Mr Vizcarra’s

proposed election, if it happens, would be a

leap into the unknown.

He knows that the way out of Peru’s im-

passe is better political parties and leaders.

Unfortunately, it is being barred by the very

system he wants to change. ^7

LIMA

The president wants to end the current

congress, and his presidency

Peru

Martín’s

manoeuvre