2019-08-03_The_Economist

The EconomistAugust 3rd 2019 Europe 43

2

1

cials fear these people might take stronger

action, perhaps rioting to discredit a demo-

cratic government.

Officials say they begin with tips, as well

as hints of Kremlin sympathies. They

might spot these in displays of military

symbols or Vladimir Putin’s image, as well

as in tweets, tattoos and even hairstyles.

Such things often mean little in and of

themselves, but officials say tracking them

is useful. For starters, tallying even the

seemingly trivial—reports of pro-Kremlin

rants by drunkards, say—can reveal an im-

portant emerging pattern, says Tomas Ce-

ponis, an analyst at Lithuania’s defence

ministry. He is part of a team that records

locations and other characteristics of pro-

Kremlin or anti-natodisplays, graffiti and

vandalism included.

Polls suggest that few Balts believe life

would be better under Russian rule. As a

Vilnius Uber driver describing past Rus-

sian domination puts it: “For us, Russia is

an animal.” The average wage in Russia is

lower than “a pension for a babushka in Es-

tonia”, says Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Esto-

nia’s president from 2006 to 2016.

Russia, however, has ways to recruit

foreign helpers who are not necessarily de-

voted believers. In eastern Ukraine, for ex-

ample, the gru(Russia’s military intelli-

gence agency) has offered heads of

criminal gangs positions in a future Rus-

sian administration in exchange for help

bringing it about. In Baltic countries the

risk of arrest for Russia’s operatives is

greater. Russia, then, tends to recruit indi-

rectly in the Baltic states, offering induce-

ments via local ngos and the Socialist Peo-

ple’s Front, a Lithuanian leftist political

party whose former leader was arrested last

year on charges of spying for Russia.

A larger number of Balts, officials say,

are recruited when they travel to Russia or

its ally Belarus. Cigarettes and petrol are

mostly cheaper there, so many people hop

across the border, stock up, and sell the

stuff once back home. Russian agents com-

monly approach Balts making these runs

and offer money in exchange for help. Ed-

vinas Kerza, Lithuania’s vice-minister of

defence, says his country therefore works

hard to identify Lithuanians engaged in

this hustle. Most troubling, he says, are

those who have access to sensitive infor-

mation thanks to a job in government.

Russia also recruits by blackmailing

visitors who accept the advances of beauti-

ful women, Mr Kerza says. Another ap-

proach involves creating a legal problem

for a relative living in Russia or Belarus.

The Balt is then told that the charges will be

dropped in exchange for spying services.

Mr Kerza says Lithuania checks to see if ap-

plicants for a government job have rela-

tives in Russia. Arrests of suspected spies

are common in the Baltic countries.

Some fret that the search for fifth col-

umnistscanbetakentoofar.EitvydasBaja-

runas,theLithuanianforeign ministry’s

topofficialforhybridthreats,tellsthestory

ofmenspottedina woodedareanearVilni-

us.Theywerequicklyroundedupbyspe-

cialforcesbutreleasedsoonafter.Theyhad

beenplayingpaintball. Toprocess leads

moreeffectively,a newintelligencecentre

isquietlybeingreadiedinVilniusforoper-

ationstobeginlaterthisyear.TheBaltic

SpecialOperationsForcesIntelligenceFu-

sionCell,asitiscalled,isaninitiativeof

Estonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPoland,with

Americanhelp.Theyarebeingdesignedso

thattheanalystscanberapidlydispersed

toworkfromvehicles,lesttheheadquar-

tersbetargetedina conflict.

WereRussiatoinvadetheBalticstates,

localKremlinsupporterscouldnodoubt

hamperresistance.ButAndersFoghRas-

mussen,a formerbossofnato, saysRussia

ismorelikelytostepupeffortstostokedi-

visionsandunderminetrustinBalticde-

mocracieswiththehelpofits“usefulidi-

ots”there.Onthat,manyBalticofficialsare

cautiously optimistic. Resistance to the

Kremlinnarrativeof adecadent, fascist

WestisstrongerintheBalticregionthanin

poorereasternUkraine. Andeventhere,

Russiaissounpopularthatithassofar

failedtosecurecontrolofa landcorridorto

Crimea. TheKremlin’spropagandists do

notalwayswin. 7

O

ver thepast decade Greece has been a

tough place for politicians who like to

be liked. The newly elected centre-right

government is trying its best. In his first

few weeks in office Kyriakos Mitsotakis,

the prime minister, has announced tax

breaks for ordinary Greeks and corpora-

tions. He has promised not to cut social

benefits or fire any public-sector workers.

Jobs are being created in areas that suffered

deep cuts during the country’s eight-year

malaise. The health ministry is preparing

to hire 2,400 hospital staff; another 1,500

police officers are being recruited.

Sadly, the good times are not guaran-

teed. The prime minister’s policy choices

could derail Greece’s chances of hitting

tough budget-surplus targets set by its

creditors, the euand the imf. Economists

fear that the relatively inexperienced Mr

Mitsotakis—he held a fairly junior minis-

terial post from 2013 to 2015—may be over-

estimating his government’s capacity to

shake up the country’s sleepy bureaucracy

and push through reforms.

So far the markets have smiled on Mr

Mitsotakis and his New Democracy. On July

16th Greece issued its first seven-year bond

since 2010. A modest target of €2.5bn

($2.8bn) issued was hugely oversub-

scribed: offers exceeded €13bn, pushing

down the yield on the new bond to 1.9%.

Winning over the euand the imfwill be

harder. Asked about the new Greek govern-

ment at her annual summer press confer-

ence, Angela Merkel, the German chancel-

lor, called the bond issue “very positive”

but sounded a note of caution: “We will

have to see how things evolve.”

Mr Mitsotakis’s eagerness to accelerate

growth by cutting taxes as fast as possible

is risky. In his first policy statement in par-

liament on July 21st, Mr Mitsotakis an-

nounced an immediate 22% cut in “enfia”,

an unpopular annual property tax, and a

cut of four percentage points in corporate

tax to 24%. Both measures will take effect

in September, four months earlier than

originally expected. The income-tax rate

for the lowest bracket will fall from 22% to

9%; value-added tax will drop by two per-

centage points. Further cuts will follow in

2020, Mr Mitsotakis says.

He has also made it clear that he will not

broaden the tax base, a long-awaited re-

form that Syriza reneged on last year. Mi-

randa Xafa, a former imfeconomist, points

out that seven out of ten Greeks pay less

than €100 a year in income tax. Getting

more people to pay tax “would help pay for

the tax-rate cuts and make burden-sharing

fairer”, she says.

The prime minister nonetheless prom-

ises that Greece will stick to a harsh budget

target this year and next. This target has al-

ready been agreed with its creditors: a

primary surplus (before debt-servicing

costs) of 3.5% of gdp. The Syriza govern-

ment of Alexis Tsipras, Mr Mitsotakis’s pre-

decessor, exceeded this target last year by

raising taxes and cutting the public-invest-

ment budget. Creditors were impressed by

ATHENS

Greece’s new government promises tax

cuts and spending increases

Greece’s new government

Let the good

times roll

Slowbut steady

Sources:Eurostat;EuropeanCommission;

DatastreamfromRefinitiv *Forecast

GDP,%change

on a year earlier

Ten-yeargovernment-

bondyield,%

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2014 16 19* 2014 16 19

0

5

10

15

20

Greece