Section:GDN 1N PaGe:11 Edition Date:190730 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 29/7/2019 20:41 cYanmaGentaYellowb
Tuesday 30 July 2019 The Guardian •
11and antisocial behaviour, violent
crime has a clear link to “poor
life outcomes”. Low educational
attainment, poor health, including
mental health, unemployment,
socio - economic factors, weak ties to
family and exclusion rates all have
links to violent crime.
Sajid Javid, toward the end of his
short tenure as home secretary, was
coming round to more innovative
approaches , treating the surge
in violence as a health issue and
placing a new public health duty on
bodies in England and Wales. Many
have already questioned whether
it would be more eff ective to invest
resources into such approaches,
including mental health support or
early intervention services, rather
than Johnson’s preferred increase in
bobbies on the beat.
Oft-cited Home Offi ce research
from the mid -1980s concluded: “A
patrolling police offi cer could expect
to pass within 100 yards of a burglary
taking place roughly once every
eight years. Even then they may not
even realise that the crime is taking
place.” The climate is quite diff erent
but the fundamental theory behind
this statistic is worth considering.
Marian Fitz Gerald , a former
principal researcher in the Home
Offi ce research and statistics
directorate and now visiting
professor of criminology at the
University of Kent, said: “Boris
Johnson has shown a cavalier
disregard for the police in promising
to recruit 20,000 extra police offi cers
over the next three years. This has
nothing to do with what struggling
forces want or need.
“The promise is calculated to
appeal to the public. Yet, if he keeps
it, with no commitment to fund
other aspects of policing, the public
will be paying a lot more for little
observable improvement – whether
in detection rates or in the service
they receive if they themselves try to
call the police.
“Simply boosting police visibility
will not deliver these improvements
if the infrastructure which should
support the work of frontline
offi cers continues to crumble and
no provision is made for essential
improvements to the equipment
they need to do the job.
“At worst, fl ooding the frontline
with probationers could be a
recipe for disaster in the absence of
suffi cient numbers of experienced
offi cers capable of mentoring and
supervising them.”
Johnson for the time being has
placed all his chips on frontline
policing. The crime statistics over
the next few years will reveal
whether this gamble pays off.ILLUSTRATION: BEN LONGDEN/THE GUARDIANByelection preview
Lib Dems avoid Brexit
in rural Wales campaign
Jessica Elgot
Chief political correspondentT
he lush hills and
fi elds of Brecon and
Radnorshire , where
sheep outnumber
people by 10 to one,
are fertile ground for
a Liberal Democrat revival. Yet
in this deeply split constituency,
which voted 52% leave, there is no
“bollocks to Brexit” on any Lib Dem
leafl et – nor indeed any mention of
leaving the EU at all.
It may seem odd to omit what has
become the ir defi ning selling point
from the literature of its candidate
Jane Dodds , though in between
pledging investment in health
and social care and delivering for
farmers, she promises to “fi x our
broken and divided politics” – code
for disillusion with the major parties
and the failure of Westminster to
break the Brexit impasse.
Dodds is cautious in the way
she talks to voters about Brexit,
restricting herself to discussing the
perils of no deal and its eff ect on the
constituency’s sheep farming and
automotive workers – though she
says the party’s stance is hardly a
secret. Unlike many MPs, and some
of the activists who have come
to the constituency to campaign
hoping to help stop Brexit, she says
the 2016 referendum made her
resolve to listen more.
“The referendum result was a
shock. It made me think more than
anything, though, that we need
to get out more and talk to more
people,” Dodds says.
In Brecon and Radnorshire,
she says she has found a deep
disconnect between its inhabitants
and Westminster politics, often a
physical one because of a loss of
local services as well as frustration
with issues such as broadband. No
deal will “potentially decimate”
the sheep farming – the economic
and cultural lifeblood of many
communities, she says.“The fi rst thing that I’m clear
about is that a no-deal Brexit must
be taken off the table,” says Dodds,
drinking coff ee in the sunshine
in Crickhowell before a day of
canvassing. “But beyond that,
people do know what the Lib Dem
position is ... they know we are a
remain party who will campaign for
a people’s vote.”
Though Dodds is keen to keep
issues local, Thursday’s vote has
huge national signifi cance. Chris
Davies , the ousted Conservative
MP convicted of expenses fraud,
is fi ghting again as the candidate
for the seat after a by election was
triggered by a recall petition.
Should Dodds win, the
Conservative majority will dwindle
to just one seat, just a week after
Boris Johnson was installed as
prime minister. Tory campaigning
has been low key, though Johnson
is scheduled to visit today. Though
there are some nerves about a “Boris
bounce”, Lib Dems are outwardly
confi dent of taking the seat,
believing that Davies’ re-selection
as a candidate is a sign that Tory
HQ wants a convenient excuse if a
loss is likely. The Brexit party will
also stand, making it more likely the
leave vote will split.
Nigel Dances, 62, a project
engineer in the car industry, is a
particularly receptive punter on the
doorstep. For him, a no-deal Brexitwould be personal, though he is
wary of stopping Brexit entirely.
“I’ve always believed it was better
to stay in and particularly for my
business it would be catastrophic if
we had no deal,” he tells Dodds.
“The extra taxes make a huge
diff erence to the margins of the
business. But I do believe we need to
respect democracy and people voted
to come out. I don’t know if they
ever realised the implications, that’s
the thing.”
Local Lib Dem campaigners know
the party’s positioning on Brexit will
mean some voters are out of reach.
Though 19% of voters signed Davies’
recall petition – almost double what
was required – many will have been
angry leave voters.
Antonia Harrison, an activist who
has travelled from Portsmouth to
campaign, has had to temper her
pro-European enthusiasm when
speaking to voters. “I’m a European
fi rst and foremost, it’s my identity, it
made me determined to try to stop
this,” she said. “But it is diff erent
here, I fi nd a lot of people are saying
they voted to leave. Some have
said they would vote Lib Dem but
because they voted leave, then they
can’t this time.”
One of the biggest challenges is
getting around a constituency the
size of Luxembourg mostly crossed
by winding country lanes. Dodds
says she is walking roughly 12 miles
a day and driving between districts
as much as three hours apart. On
election day, activists will need to
cover a huge area on a day when
turnout could make the diff erence.
Yet the Lib Dems have attracted
campaigners from across the UK –
and two who have fl own over from
Hong Kong and Toronto. Local
organisers claim volunteers have
included ex-Tory members and
current Labour members.
On Crickhowell’s high street,
opinion is divided. Robin Masefi eld,
33, the owner of Natural Weigh,
which sells food and household
products without packaging , is
keen for a Dodds victory. “I hope
she gets it, I just don’t support
the Conservatives’ political views
whatsoever,” he said.
In his butcher’s shop a few doors
down , Michael Cashell said he
believed there might be shy residual
support for Davies, especially among
Brexiters. “I know people who voted
to have [Davies] deselected and now
have his poster up in their window.
For people who voted to come out, it
is better to have someone who is for
Brexit in there,” he said.
“Boris is a character, there’s no
doubt about that but I do think he is
likely to keep his promises. I think
he’s for us, Britain will come fi rst.”
Many residents are amused, more
than anything, that the media circus
is now making its way to Brecon.
Marianne, a pensioner travelling
down Crickhowell high street, said
she had been recently surprised to
fi nd the former Lib Dem leader Tim
Farron ringing her doorbell. Though
she says it is local issues that will
aff ect her vote, she said many people
had found Davies to be personable
and eff ective. “Local people are
so fed up about Brexit I think they
won’t want to think about it and
will vote for whoever they would
usually vote for. It is local things
that matter more.”▼ Jane Dodds, the leader of the
Welsh Liberal Democrats, tries to
drum up support in Crickhowell
PHOTOGRAPH: GARETH PHILLIPS/THE GUARDIAN▲ Dodds has spoken to constituents
about the perils of no-deal BrexitРЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS