Section:GDN 1J PaGe:3 Edition Date:190730 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 29/7/2019 18:21 cYanmaGentaYellowbla
Tuesday 30 July 2019 The Guardian •
3
Anne
McElvoy
W
hat Brexit means for the
United Kingdom and the life
expectancy of Boris Johnson’s
government is minutely
dissected. What it means
for the major EU countries,
rather less so. Things do look
more nuanced and interesting
when seen from France and Germany – the duopoly that
guides the political and economic direction of the EU.
This duumvirate has been the motor of the EU since its
foundation , in the way it approaches crises such as th at
in the eurozone (which has unfi nished business in the
rise of Italian populism) and, now, Brexit.
Declared unity in Europe is always questionable –
there are too many faultlines, interpretations, passions
and aversions for the harmony to be absolute or
unchan ging. The “Rhine divide” is a term popularised
by the Princeton economist Markus Brunnermeier to
explain the tensions between France and Germany in
the Greek and wider eurozone crisis. Germany runs a
decentralised economy, refl ecting its federal status , held
together by budget and defi cit rules. When those rules
look threatened, it prefers tightening belts with austerity
and self-imposed constraints. France, a strongly
centralised power, allows itself leeway on defi cits and in
a crisis seeks to spend more to ease the pressure.
You can see the Rhine divide in action as Emmanuel
Macron , the French president, increases public spending
to buy off the dissatisfaction of the gilets jaunes –
pushing public debt to almost 99% of GDP, despite an
initial commitment to bringing down borrowing. In
broader eurozone terms, the net eff ect is a standstill
on much-needed reform, and French irritation at
the German failure (as Paris sees it) to make a serious
commitment to creating a eurozone stabilisation fund
to ease the impact of any future crises.
While this festers, the Halloween Brexit deadline
looms. For the past couple of months I’ve been touring
Europe for a BBC Radio 4 documentary, and my guess is
that this summer the major member states will be more
engaged in the key decisions on how to handle the threat
of no deal. Until now, they have been happy to leave the
pain to Brussels placemen. The timeline and the “Boris
factor” are chang ing the calculation on the continent.
Anne McElvoy
is senior editor
of the Economist
and presents
France and
Germany:
Divided They
Stand on BBC
Radio 4 at
8pm todayEmmanuel
Macron and
Angela Merkel in
Brussels last year
PHOTOGRAPH:
GEERT VANDEN
WIJNGAERT/APAlready, diff erences have emerged. Angela Merkel ,
the German chancellor, said she was looking forward
to a good working relationship with Boris Johnson and
hopes Britain and Germany will remain “ bound by close
friendship in the future”. Yet France’s Europe minister,
Amélie de Montchalin , rejected Johnson’s demand to
change the withdrawal agreement.
Putting aside whether we consider no deal to be
an inherentl y bad idea, it is quite likely to happen.
Michael Gove , the new cabinet minister in charge of
no-deal preparations , made clear in his Sunday Times
column that it has become the “premise” of offi cial
expectations. That also changes the way France and
Germany will calculate their responses throughout the
summer. Much of their strategy has been based on the
assumption that they’ll never actually have to deal with
no deal. Now there’s a growing realisation that the UK
parliament may not reject this option, and that Brussels
will have to face up to the prospect.
With that in mind, the tone from Germany’s
government has softened in the past months. Even the
foreign minister, Heiko Maas of the Social Democrats
(who tend to be more punitive towards Brexit-y Britain
than their Christian Democrat partners), has tweeted
that Britain would continue to be “a close partner and
friend of Germany”, adding, “Good luck, Boris!”
Sceptics might interpret this as not wanting to be
blamed for a no- deal outcome. But if a “Boris bounce”
leads the prime minister towards a general election to
secure a mandate for no deal, Europe will have to adapt.T
his, as far as the new N o 10 is
concerned, is the point at which
changes to the backstop would provide
the fi nal chance to recast the three
meaningless votes as a fourth, rather
diff erent, meaningful one. Indeed,
such a prospect has already provoked
the most implacable members of the
European Research Group , who fear that the No 10
strategist Dominic Cummings ’s plan is ultimately to
achiev e another deal rather than “pure Brexit”.
And it throws up a stark Rhine divide choice too.
Macron has to date thundered against any extension
to the existing deal and suggested that the EU would
do better to be shot of diffi cult Brits than put up with
further months of dithering. Senior French politicians
are let loose to complain about Johnson’s “ posturing ”.
The Merkel position, by contrast, refl ects her
preference for a calm approach when the going
gets tough. So even on the backstop she calls for
“fresh, creative thinking” – adding in a priceless
bit of Merkelese that its present status can only be
“ overwritten ” if an alternative solution is found in the
declaration on the future relationship.
Naturally, this can be read as a promise of some
readiness to be creative – or none at all. It does not
mean that Johnson will inevitably prevail. As a
mistress of Louis XI V waspishly remarked, one can be
a powerful king with a very small sceptre.
Nonetheless, a Brexit “iron curtain” – in which a
rupture in the trading relationship infects other aspects
of co operation – is invidious to both the UK and wider
Europe’s interests. Brexit notwithstanding, we have
much in common with the great European liberal
democracies. It is always possible to make a bad crisis
worse, which means that the Johnson era demands
fresh refl ection – and not only on the home front.The EU banked
on parliament
ditching no deal
- that’s changed
Opinion
If a ‘Boris
bounce’
leads the prime
minister towards an
election to get a new
mandate, Europe
will have to adapt
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