The Guardian - 03.08.2019

Saturday 3 August 2019 The Guardian •

11

Jessica Elgot

What would it take to demolish

Boris Johnson’s majority in

parliament? After the Liberal

Democrats won the Brecon and

Radnorshire byelection , the

new prime minister’s working

majority was reduced to one. But

the parliamentary arithmetic is

deceptive. Who or what could make

that majority disappear?

Conservative rebels

We already know there are enough

rebels to sink any legislation that

would propel the UK towards no

deal, or to pass measures to prevent

it from happening or obstruct the

prorogation of parliament.

Seventeen Conservatives voted

for Dominic Grieve ’s amendment to

the Northern Ireland bill, which was

aimed at preventing prorogation,

including the former ministers

Alistair Burt , Sarah Newton , Margot

James and Steve Brine.

Newly backbench former cabinet

ministers and ministers includ e the

no-deal sceptics Philip Hammond ,

David Gauke , Greg Clark , David

Mundell , Stephen Hammond and

Tobias Ellwood. It remains highly

unpredictable what th ese MPs

would do in a confi dence vote if that

was the only way of preventing no

deal. Grieve and Ken Clarke are the

only MPs who have said they would

be willing to vote down their own

government – and that may not be

enough if rebels in other parties

decide to go another way.

There is also the question of

pro-Brexit rebels – the ones who

sank Theresa May’s premiership –

though many of them, such as Priti

Patel, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey

and Jacob Rees-Mogg, are now in

Johnson’s cabinet.

Some hard Eurosceptics such as

Steve Baker are still out in the cold,

however, and one of them, Mark

Francois , has suggested there are 60

pro-Brexit rebels willing to torpedo

the withdrawal agreement even

if the backstop is removed. T hat

is likely to be an overestimate but

it could be the case that Brexiters

scupper any “great deal” that

Johnson claims he can bring back.

Labour rebels

There are between 10 and 20 Labour

MPs who are determined to see

through Brexit. Some are pro-leave

themselves and others, such as

Caroline Flint , Melanie Onn , Gareth

Snell and Sarah Champion , want to

stop a second referendum because

of the strength of feeling among

their pro-leave constituents.

Astonishingly, very few of these

MPs voted for May’s Brexit deal,

though it is highly likely more would

vote for a deal if one was presented

to parliament in the coming months.

It is unclear if they would be enough

in number for the deal to pass.

Most Labour rebels, even if

they want to deliver Brexit, are

squeamish about no deal. Some

hardliners, such as Kate Hoey,

would be prepared to oppose

moves to block no deal, and views

among some others are hardening.

Champion has said she would not

block no deal.

But it is likely none of th ose who

might rebel on Brexit would be

prepared to back the government in

a confi dence vote. That would end

their careers and they would have

the Labour whip removed. Hoey,

who has said she will stand down

at the next election, is the only real

possibility.

Independents , Change UK

The House of Commons has

acquired 17 independent MPs over

the past two years and their votes

could make all the diff erence.

One group are passionately

pro-remain, some of them former

Tory and Labour MPs who left and

formed Change UK and then left it.

There are fi ve of them: Heidi Allen ,

Sarah Wollaston , Luciana Berger ,

Angela Smith and Gavin Shuker. All

would vote to block no deal, and

although a confi dence vote could

cost them their seats, they would

probably be willing to vote down the

government.

The remaining fi ve members

of what is now the Independent

Group for Change , including Chris

Leslie and Anna Soubry , who have

previously said they would vote

with the government in a confi dence

vote, may vote down Johnson if the

alternative is no deal.

Charlie Elphicke , the former

Tory MP suspended from the party

while charged with sexual assault, is

likely to vote with the government.

Several commentators have claimed

it is wrong to consider Johnson’s

majority as one since Elphicke is

likely to act as a Tory. Likewise,

the suspended Labour MP, Chris

Williamson, is likely to follow the

Labour whip.

Three former Labour MPs who

quit their party – Frank Field , Ian

Austin and John Woodcock – are so

strongly opposed to Jeremy Corbyn

that they could vote with Johnson

in a confi dence vote. Others are

less predictable, including the

former Labour MP Jared O’Mara ,

who says he intends to quit in

September, and Sylvia Hermon , the

Northern Irish independent MP,

who is strongly opposed to no deal

but has previously voted with the

government in a confi dence vote.

The DUP

Johnson has spent many hours since

he entered Downing Street trying to

woo back the Democratic Unionist

party, and its leaders have expressed

confi dence in his pursuit of an EU

exit, deal or no deal, by 31 October.

Johnson’s new Northern Ireland

secretary, Julian Smith , is likely to

be able to keep them onboard for

now and they should be dependable

votes for the government if a

confi dence vote is triggered.

Future byelections

Though there could be byelections

in O’Mara’s seat of Sheffi eld Hallam

and Elphicke’s seat of Dover, only

one of them has any chance of

causing Johnson to lose his majority.

Hallam has historically been a

three-way marginal but Nick Clegg’s

former seat is likely to be a straight

fi ght between Labour and the Lib

Dems next time.

In Dover, however, the Brexit

party may fancy the opportunity

to win a seat off the Conservatives,

though any byelection in that part

of Kent is not a certainty and would

take place well after 31 October.

In the balance

What would it take for the

PM’s majority to vanish?

Conservative DUP Labour SNP Lib Dems TIG Plaid Cymru Green Ind

320 government and DUP seats

319 opposition seats

Five or more Tory MPs have

suggested they would be prepared

to vote against the government to

stop a no-deal Brexit

Kate Hoey

Most prominent of a handful

of repeat Labour rebels who

have backed the government

on Brexit votes

Charlie Elphicke

Technically independent after

having the Tory whip removed

while under investigation for

sexual assault. Likely to vote

with Boris Johnson

Jane Dodds

Won Brecon and Radnorshire

byelection

The Gaukward squad

DUP Supports the government

This blank space is the

deficit on the opposition

side that keeps the Tories

in government

The majority

State of the Commons

Guardian graphic. Note: the chart shows MPs who vote. Excluded are Sinn Féin's seven MPs, who refuse

to sit in the Westminster parliament, and the Speaker, plus his three deputies, who do not usually vote

modest presence in the border seat;

at the last general election the party

secured just 3.1% of the vote. With

no Green candidate standing, most

of the Lib Dems’ gain came from

Labour, which lost 12. 5 percentage

points and slumped to fourth place.

Corbyn’s party was claiming,

not unreasonably, that it was a

two-horse race for the seat and the

result’s real importance was the

Conservative defeat, but a haul of

1,680 votes and a 5.3% share (just

enough to retain its deposit) will

have been at the lower end of what

was credible.

Ultimately, a narrow majority

of 50.3% of the vote went to

unambiguously pro-Brexit parties

in a seat that voted 51.9% for leave

in the 2016 EU referendum. The

Conservatives know they have a

chance to unite that vote if they can

credibly leave the EU at the end of

October.

What the Brecon result shows is

that failure to do so would almost

certainly lead to the party being

defeated at Westminster if an

election were to be held, or forced

on Johnson, shortly after a failure

to leave the EU or a Brexit widely

believed to have been botched.

Those looking for a

Conservative bounce

after Johnson’s

elevation would

have to study the

fi gures carefully

▲ The Conservative candidate, Chris
Davies, concedes defeat yesterday

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