Barron\'s - 05.08.2019

(Michael S) #1

32 BARRON’S August 5, 2019


A group of researchers think they


have a way to turn retirement savings


into lasting income. BySarahMax


Solving


AnOld-Age


Problem


says Vernon. “It’s indexed for inflation, it protects


against longevity risk, and if the stock market


crashes,itdoesn’tgodown.”Italsoprotectsagainst


cognitiverisk,hesays,sincerecipientsdon’tneedto


worry about making complicated investment deci-


sions or turning their assets over to a scam artist.


Andtherearetaxadvantagestoboot:Aportionof


the benefit is exempt from federal tax, and most


states don’t tax Social Security income.


TheeasiestwaytodelayclaimingSocialSecu-


rity is to keep working, he says, even if it means


working just enough to cover living expenses.


“ThisiswhatI’mdoing,”says66-year-oldVernon,


who “downshifted” from an intense job as a con-


sulting actuary to his current role with the Stan-


ford Center on Longevity.


Thealternativeistoretirebefore70butdelay


claiming benefits by carving out a portion of re-


tirementsavingstocoverexpensesuntilSocialSe-


curitykicksin.A65-year-oldsinglewomanwitha


current salary of $50,000 and savings of $250,000


who claims Social Security at age 70 would in-


creaseherannualbenefitto$27,646versusclaim-


ingat65for$19,476.Doingsowouldrequirethat


she use a significant chunk of her savings to


bridge the gap—but in the long run it could in-


creasehertotalretirementincome14%andreduce


thepercentageofhertotalincomethatissubject


to market, inflation, and longevity risk.


Invest Like Your Younger Self


ThesecondcomponentoftheSpendSafelyinRetire-


mentStrategyistoinvestretirementassetsmoreag-


gressivelythanhadtraditionallybeenprescribedby


experts,whilewithdrawingaslittleaspossible.


The thinking here is that retirees who adopt


thefirstpartofthestrategytorelymoreheavily


on Social Security for income needs can afford to


takemoremarketrisk.Theresearchersconcluded


thata100%allocationtostocksmightevenbeac-


ceptable. “But I’ll be the first to admit that not


manypeopleinretirementaregoingtowanttoin-


vest 100% in stocks,” says Vernon, who recom-


mends as a compromise a balanced fund with


stocksandbondsoratarget-datefundwithanin-


vestment mix geared toward someone younger.


Thisphaseofthestrategycallsforretireesto


withdrawnomorethantheInternalRevenueSer-


vice’srequiredminimumdistribution.(Forpeople


youngerthan70½—theageatwhichretireesmust


beginwithdrawingapercentageoftheirsavingsin


tax-deferredaccounts—theresearchersusedIRS


methodologytomapoutequivalentpercentages.)


Totaketheguessworkoutofwithdrawals,retirees


can set up automatic withdrawals in monthly or


quarterly increments.


“It’shardtoarguewiththisstrategy,”saysMe-


liaoftheInstitutionalRetirementIncomeCouncil,


thoughhesaysitmaybehardertopulloffifem-


ployeeshaveretirementfundsinmultipleaccounts.


Vernon acknowledges this strategy isn’t for ev-


eryone, namely retirees who have amassed larger


savings. For retirees with at least $1 million in as-


sets,hesays,investmentreturnscarrymoreweight


and annuities can start to look more appealing.


Still,forAmericanswhocounttheirretirement


savingsintensandhundredsofthousands,asimple


approachmaybethebest.“OnceyouoptimizeSo-


cialSecurityforamiddle-incomeretiree,thatmight


be all the annuity income you need,” says Vernon.


WhatabouttheriskthatSocialSecuritybene-


fitscouldbecut?Vernonhasrunthenumberswith


various scenarios, including a 20% reduction in


benefitsin2035—whentheprogramisexpectedto


deplete its reserves. “The answer is delaying is


still the right strategy,” he says.


INCOME IDEA


Here’s how the Spend


Safely in Retirement


Strategy would look for a


65-year-old single female


$50,000


Current salary


$250,000


Retirement savings


$19,476


Annual SS benefit


(at age 65)


$27,646


Annual SS benefit


(at age 70)


If she retires at 65


and immediately claims


Social Security and


starts drawing required


minimum distributions,


her income would be:


$19,476


Social Security


$7,813


RMD


(3.125% of $250,000)


$27,289


Total


(55% replacement ratio)


But, if she waited to


claim SS until age 70


and supplemented


income from retirement


savings, her income


starting at 70 would be


higher, even after cut-


ting her retirement sav-


ings by more than half:


$27,646


Social Security


$3,493


RMD


(3.125% of $111,770)


$31,139


Total


(62% replacement ratio)


A


N ACADEMIC CENTER STUDYING LONGEVITY


andaprofessionalbodydedicatedtomanag-


ingtherisksofagingthinktheyhaveasolu-


tiontowhateconomistandNobellaureateWilliam


Sharpehascalledthe“nastiest,hardestproblemin


finance”:turningretirementsavingsintoapredict-


ablestreamofincomeoveraperiodthatcouldspan


years or decades.


Theissueofcreatinglastingretirementincome


is particularly onerous for Americans who have


lessthan$1millioninsavings—thatis,most—and


don’tpayforprofessionalfinancialadvice.Leftto


theirowndevices,thesesaversoftengotooneof


two extremes, says Steve Vernon, a research


scholarattheStanfordCenteronLongevity.They


either live too frugally for fear of running out of


money, or they choose to be oblivious, spending


freely until they reach a point of no return.


Itishardtostrikeabalance,hesays,because


there are so many variables such as years in re-


tirement, inflation, and market performance, and


so little room for error.


Meanwhile,theprimaryresourceforretirement


savingtoday—employer-sponsoredretirementplans


like401(k)s—haveonlyrecentlystartedtolookat


how to help employees safely spend down their


savings. “For the first time, the vast majority of


plan sponsors see their objective to generate re-


tirementincome,”saysBobMelia,executivedirec-


toroftheInstitutionalRetirementIncomeCouncil.


So what’s a retiree to do?


TheStanfordCenteronLongevityandSociety


ofActuariesrecentlyoutlinedastrategythatcould


betheanswerformiddle-incomeAmericansseek-


ingastraightforwardplantheycanexecutewith-


outanadvisororannuity.TheSpendSafelyinRe-


tirement Strategy, as they call it, involves two


basic components.


Wait to Claim


ThefirstistomaximizeSocialSecurityincomeby


claiming benefits as late as possible, ideally until


age70,whenrecipientsreceive132%oftheirfull


monthly benefits for delaying 48 months.


“SocialSecurityisprobablythebestretirement


income source for most middle-income people be-


Ben Mounsey-Woodcause it addresses every common financial risk,”

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