Barron\'s - 05.08.2019

M34 BARRON’S August 5, 2019

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 23 / 4 321 / 2

PrimeRate(base) 51 / 4 51 / 2 5

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 210 / 77 22 / 5 153 / 57

Avg weekly auction-c 2.40 2.41 1.91

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 2.116 2.085 2.038

13 weeks, Auction Rate 2.070 2.040 2.000

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 2.090 2.064 2.214

26 weeks, Auction Rate 2.035 2.010 2.160
Avg weekly auction-c 2.05 2.07 1.96

BrokerCallRate 4 4 1/4 3 3/4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.23 2.43 1.93

2 months 2.22 2.35 2.08

3 months 2.20 2.30 2.23

6 months 2.15 2.20 2.35

EuroLiborRate*(EuriborInterbanknolongeravailablefromsource)

1 month -0.434 -0.420 -0.402

3 months -0.412 -0.401 -0.361

6 months -0.419 -0.416 -0.316

12 months -0.354 -0.340 -0.235

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 2.23 2.24 2.08

3 months 2.24 2.27 2.34

6 months 2.13 2.20 2.52

12 months 2.12 2.20 2.83

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 3.11 3.35 4.24

Bank money market-z 0.24 0.24 0.20

Interest Checking-z 0.08 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.63 0.63 0.37

12-Month Certif-z 0.91 0.91 0.72
30 Month Accounts-z 0.95 0.95 0.95

5-Year Certificates-z 1.29 1.30 1.28

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

2.80

2.35

1.90

1.45

1.00

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

A S O N D J F M A M J J

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedJul31:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,606,334 -14,835 -458,979

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2 .... -6

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 126 + 4 -98

Float -340 -156 + 107

OtherF.R.Assets 28,884 -411 -2,390

TotalFedCredit# 3,751,598 -16,010 -480,853

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,020 + 14 + 373

Total 3,838,558 -16,129 -480,900

Currencyincirc 1,745,752 + 465 + 78,004

Treas.CashHldgs 174 + 10 -33

Treas.FedDeposits 163,763 -29,599 -187,760

ForeignFedDeposits 5,255 -1 -2

OtherFedDeposits 54,143 -3,501 -17,984

OtherFRliab/cap 44,879 + 402 -193

Totalfactors 2,304,034 -32,331 -77,876

ReservesF.R.banks 1,534,523 + 16,201 -403,025

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,462,859 + 1,927 + 28,650

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Jul31: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,593,012 1,570,546 1.43 2,008,938

Nonborrowed Res # 1,592,885 1,570,429 1.43 2,008,704

Required Res ## 208,086 189,516 9.80 199,745

ExcessReserves: 1,384,926 1,381,030 0.28 1,809,193

Borrowed Reserves 127 118 7.63 234

Free Reserves ### 1,384,799 1,380,912 0.28 1,808,959

MonetaryBase 3,271,942 3,256,928 0.46 3,609,673

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

SouthKorea (Won) .0008301 .0008444 1204.61 1184.24

SriLanka (Rupee) .0057 .0057 176.6600 176.1900

Sweden (Krona) .1038 .1052 9.6336 9.5019

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0182 1.0068 .9821 .9932

Taiwan (Dollar) .03178 .03216 31.466 31.097

Thailand (Baht) .03255 .03240 30.720 30.860

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1799 .1763 5.5597 5.6718

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0394 .0394 25.3980 25.3830

U.K. (Pound) 1.2162 1.2382 .8222 .8076

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02913 .02955 34.330 33.840

----

Euro 1.1108 1.1128 .9002 .8987

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,August02,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0224 .0231 44.5880 43.2701

Australia (Dollar) .6802 .6910 1.4702 1.4472

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6531 2.6523 .3769 .3770

Brazil (Real) .2572 .2647 3.8886 3.7776

Bulgaria (Lev) .5679 .5689 1.7609 1.7579

Canada (Dollar) .7573 .7596 1.3204 1.3166

Chile (Peso) .001402 .001438 713.10 695.20

China (Renminbi) .1441 .1454 6.9402 6.8792

Colombia (Peso) .0002955 .0003087 3384.50 3239.30

Croatia (Kuna) .1504619 .1507545 6.65 6.63

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04314 .04351 23.181 22.982

Denmark (Krone) .1488 .1490 6.7218 6.7109

Ecuador USDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0603 .0603 16.5755 16.5844

HongKong (Dollar) .1277 .1279 7.8284 7.8184

Hungary (Forint) .003394 .003404 294.64 293.77

Iceland (Krona) .008150 .008200 122.70 121.95

India (Rupee) .01435 .01452 69.700 68.880

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000705 .0000714 14180 14004

Israel (Shekel) .2865 .2839 3.4908 3.5218

Japan (Yen) .009382 .009202 106.58 108.67

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002592 .002597 385.86 385.01

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2817 3.2844 .3047 .3045

Macau (Pataca) .1242 .1242 8.0530 8.0522

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2391 .2428 4.1816 4.1190

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0518 .0525 19.3066 19.0423

NewZealand (Dollar) .6536 .6635 1.5300 1.5072

Norway (Krone) .1121 .1147 8.9175 8.7162

Oman (Rial) 2.5974 2.5976 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00626 .00621 159.790 161.000

Philippines (Peso) .01937 .01956 51.630 51.121

Poland (Zloty) .2579 .2605 3.8781 3.8391

Qatar (Rial) .2747 .2747 3.6404 3.6407

Russia (Ruble)-a .01534 .01580 65.182 63.272

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7515 3.7504

Singapore (Dollar) .7263 .7301 1.3768 1.3696

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0676 .0700 14.7852 14.2938

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 8/2 7/26 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1441.75 1420.40 1216.30

Silver,troyounce 16.31 16.41 15.52

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1503.42 57.82 4.00

MapleLeaf 1517.88 72.28 5.00

MexicanPeso 1750.96 8.00 0.46

AustriaCrown 1419.98 3.00 0.21

AustriaPhil 1517.88 72.28 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1517.88 72.28 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1445.60

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 8/1 7/25 Ago Chg.

536.99382.52 Gold mining 530.28 531.35444.64 –0.20

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 64% 64% 63%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 38.4% 31.7% 35.9%

Bearish 24.1 32.0 28.6

Neutral 37.5 36.2 35.4

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 53% 53% 54%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 46.0% 49.2% 41.0%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 24,782 r22,101 8,062

Municipal (z) 4,961 r8,857 5,691

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.82 3.01 3.90

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.63 3.79 4.89

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

77.8 79.4 79.7

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

3970.21 3820.64 3370.72

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3001.33 2969.24 2692.53

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

295.67 291.18 267.12

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

3.42 3.43 3.95

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.66 3.67 4.01

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.57 –.82 –1.77

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 3.08 3.21 3.88

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedJuly22

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,875.6 3,844.2 3,669.0 5.63

M1(notadjusted) 3,853.8r3,723.73,673.6 4.91

M2(seas.adjusted) 14,881.7r14,827.214,156.1 5.13

M2(notadjusted) 14,802.514,829.914,048.7 5.37

TwoWeeksendedJuly17

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) 1.165 1.172 1.000 16.50

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJune

M1(seas.adjusted) r3,823.9r3,784.03,657.8 4.54

M2(seas.adjusted) r14,770.6r14,632.814,113.0 4.66

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

S O N D J F M A M JJ

Barron's Gold Mining Index (530.28)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Gold Rush: After the Fed trimmed rates

and Trump tweeted on tariffs, gold rose

1.5% on the week, to $1,442 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2

NYSE 1.60 1.08 1.49 1.70 1.26

NYSEAmerican 1.05 .74 2.64 1.25 1.43

Nasdaq .80 1.11 1.22 .90 1.00