Sanctuary |Opinion
Earlier this year, the UN
Secretary General warned, “If we do
not change course by 2020, we risk
missing the point where we can avoid
runaway climate change, with disastrous
consequences for people and all the
natural systems that sustain us.”
Most of us following and researching
climate change, may suspect that this
statement was triggered by ‘Three Years
to Safeguard Our Climate’ (3-Years),
fi rst published in 2017. A meticulous
examination of that document by several
climate scientists, revealed that in several
critical areas it was understated; some
might say considerably understated.
The fundamental situation
underpinning the concerns expressed
in ‘3-Years’ was that the climate has
entered a highly dangerous non-linear
mode, or accelerating rate of change, and
therefore requires an immediate non-linearADAPT AND THRIVE...
OR FADE AWAY
By Perses Bilimoria
SC NATIONAL GUARD / PUBLIC DOMAIN
response. Based on the post analysis of
the ‘temperature’ paper by Jim Hansen
et al., there is considerable mathematical
evidence that the onset of this mode was
2002/2003, i.e., we have more likely been
in this mode for around 15 years!
The reality is we must fi rst slow, then
stop, reverse, and fi nally stabilise the non-
linear mode.
A rather obvious conclusion is that a
gross understatement has been made by
the body politic; at that by those who are
genuinely striving to bring attention to
the need for change. Consider that if we
compare the current rate of response, with
the non-linear mode, then it is eminently
arguable that we are already in early stage
runaway climate change. The unanswered
question is when does this transition to an
uncontrollable rate of change and thus the
timing of when the climate spirals out of
control spawning a cascade of events thatwill make this planet very, if not totally,
inhospitable for our species?
Somewhat aligned with the
UN statement is one by Sir David
Attenborough from the ‘Peoples Seat’
at the opening of COP24, “It could lead
to the collapse of civilisations and the
extinction of much of the natural world.” It
would have been helpful if Attenborough
had added, “including our species,” to the
end of this statement. But, as we continue
to accelerate towards oblivion, describing
the situation is invariably watered down.
One has to wonder at what point, if ever,
this will change?
Over the years it is inarguable that we
have regressed in addressing this problem
and yet as we approach the very edge
of catastrophe, there are those who still
advocate ‘baby steps’. That of course
would be better than walking backwards
but will have little or no meaningful impact