W
HY West Bengal is on the boil while Odisha is expe-
riencing a bout of relative political bonhomie make
for an interesting study in contrast. The two neigh-
bouring states have had a somewhat similar political
trajectory in recent months. As in Mamata Banerjee’s West
Bengal, the electoral contest in Odisha too was bitter and
vicious with the BJP seeking to expand its footprint in a
state where it had little presence. And as in Bengal, the BJP
tasted a fair degree of success in Odisha. Though the party
failed to stop Naveen Patnaik from being re-elected for a
fifth consecutive term as chief minister, it did startle many
by winning eight of the state’s 21
parliamentary seats, a stunning
improvement over its paltry tally
of just one in 2014.
But that is where the similarity
ends. While the battle for political
power has only intensified in
West Bengal, Odisha projects a
picture of relative calm. Patnaik’s
Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the
BJP are no longer going for each
other’s throats and political tem-
peratures have significantly
plummeted. Given the changed
circumstances, not many were
surprised when a smiling Patnaik
stood alongside a beaming Union
minister Dharmendra Pradhan at
a recent photo-op. Pradhan led
the BJP’s offensive against
Patnaik and there was no love lost
between the two until recently.
So, why the sudden change of
heart? Neither side has given up
on their ambitions, or is willing to
yield political space to the other, but the truce replacing
open hostility is for strategic reasons evidently. With Patnaik
back as chief minister and no major election to be fought in
the state for the next five years, unlike in Bengal that will
hold assembly elections in 2021, the BJP has decided against
taking Patnaik head-on any longer. The party has seemingly
chosen to patiently bide its time instead.
The rationale behind the new approach is the grudging
realisation that Patnaik remains popular and is difficult to
topple. At the same time, the BJP is apparently convincedthat at 72 and not in the best of health (as reports indicate),
Patnaik will certainly not be politically active during the
next round of elections. Polls in the absence of Patnaik will
hopefully brighten the BJP’s prospects and the party has
optimistically chosen to set its eyes on the future, rather
than the present.
That the BJP already occupies pole position, having rele-
gated the Congress to the third spot in the state, is integral
to the party’s projections. And that the BJD is bereft of a
succession plan or a leader who can step into the big shoes
of its party patriarch has strengthened the BJP’s belief in a
brighter future. It expects the
BJD to implode once Patnaik
exits the political stage and rud-
derless party men to flock to a
formation that is in the strongest
position to secure their long-
term future. The BJP believes it
would be the natural destination
choice for most.
Almost certain that this is how
events will play out, the BJP
hopes to be the biggest benefi-
ciary of the likely BJD meltdown.
The party, therefore, prefers a
status quo until then, stirring the
political cauldron but not allow-
ing it to boil over. Its leaders still
criticise the Patnaik government
in TV studios, but clearly lack
their trademark aggression.
Besides long-term dividends,
the BJP is looking for some im-
mediate gains as well. To remain
a credible alternative to the BJD,
it needs to deliver on Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s promise of development in the
state and requires the Odisha government’s cooperation.
Many central projects such as the expansion of the Paradip
refinery or the setting up of an oil reserve hub in
Chandikhol have been stalled because the two govern-
ments eyed each other with suspicion. The BJP’s change of
tack, however, is expected to bring about a change in the re-
lationship. Patnaik will have it easy for the time being,
while the BJP stands to gain in the future. If that be the
case, it’s a win-win for both. OCOVER STORY OPINION
BJP’s Calculated
Odisha Ceasefire
Unlike the Bengal offensive, saffron party displays
RUBEN predator’s patience of waiting for a BJD meltdown
BANERJEECM Naveen stood alongside
Dharmendra Pradhan at a
recent photo-op, underscoring
an end to hostilities as no
major election is due in the
next five years in Odisha.1 July 2019 OUTLOOK 35