The Washington Post - 07.08.2019

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 7 , 2019. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

BY DAVID NAKAMURA

President Trump has sought to
address two intractable challeng-
es in East Asia — North Korea’s
nuclear weapons and China’s
predatory trade policies — but
21 / 2 years into his presidency, he is
facing deepening turbulence in
the region.
North Korea has resumed
short-range missile tests, con-
ducting four launches over the
past two weeks, while the Trump
administration’s trade war with
China escalated this week from a
tariff fight to a broader dispute
over currency, spooking financial
markets.
At the same time, two major
U.S. allies, Japan and South Ko-
rea, whom Trump has tried to
unify to confront Beijing and
Pyongyang, have been riven over
a bitter trade dispute of their own
rooted in historical grievances —
a row that Trump has been un-
able, and more recently unwill-
ing, to help mediate.
And mass pro-democracy dem-
onstrations in Hong Kong have
sparked fears that Beijing will
choose to intervene through force
to stamp out the protests, present-
ing a test on free speech and
human rights for a president who
has given little voice to such is-
sues.
“These are big problems,” said
Michael Green, who served as a

top Asia policy adviser in the

White House under President

George W. Bush. He said that it

was unfair to blame them on the

Trump administration but that

the president’s lack of a clear

strategy on trade and human

rights has contributed to making

the situations worse.

“These were all problems for

the last three administrations.

Nobody solved the problems, and

Trump won’t solve them either,”

Green said. “But they’re getting

worse, and they’re all converging

now.”

White House aides said the

president and his team have been

actively engaged in managing the

potential flash points and reas-

suring U.S. allies of the adminis-

tration’s resolve. New Defense

Secretary Mark T. Esper and Sec-

retary of State Mike Pompeo are

visiting Asia this week, while John

Bolton, the White House national

security adviser, visited in late

July.

Esper, who arrived in To kyo on

Tuesday, told reporters that, de-

spite North Korea’s missile tests,

tensions between Washington

and Pyongyang have “been palpa-

bly lessened” since Trump en-

gaged in personal diplomacy with

leader Kim Jong Un.

He vowed to coordinate closely

with counterparts in To kyo and

Seoul, and he urged those two

camps to resolve their bilateral

dispute and “focus on North Ko-

rea and China.”

But Trump’s own interest in

resolving the spat between the

allies has been in question of late.

After holding three trilateral

meetings with Japanese Prime

Minister Shinzo Abe and South

Korean President Moon Jae-in

during his first two years i n office,

Trump complained to reporters

last month that dealing with their

disputes is “like a full-time job.”

The tensions intensified when

Japan moved last month to curb

sales to South Korea of chemical

materials used to produce memo-

ry chips and semiconductors.

That step was viewed in Seoul as

retaliation for a South Korean

court decision allowing citizens to

sue Japanese companies for mis-

treatment of South Korean work-

ers during the imperial occupa-

tion in World War II.

Trump said last month that

Moon had asked him to mediate

with Abe.

“I said, ‘How many things do I

have to get involved in?’ ” Trump

said, recalling his conversation

with Moon. “I’m involved with

North Korea. I’m involved in so

many things.”

Last week, Japan removed

South Korea from its “whitelist”

of preferred trading partners.

Thousands marched i n Seoul over

the weekend, calling for a boycott

of Japan, and the Moon govern-

ment is reportedly considering

canceling an intelligence-sharing

agreement with To kyo.

Behind the scenes, Trump ad-

ministration officials blame

Moon for reneging on an agree-

ment reached in 2015 with assis-

tance from the Obama adminis-

tration to resolve the historical

issues. They said Trump pressed

Moon and Abe during the trilater-

al meetings to resolve their ten-

sions.

The growing hostility between

the U.S. allies comes as Pyong-

yang has renewed its provoca-

tions. On Tuesday, North Korea

launched its fourth set of projec-

tiles in less than two weeks. Nu-

clear talks with the United States

have remained dormant despite

Trump’s dramatic meeting with

Kim at the Korean demilitarized

zone in June.

Despite the provocations,

Trump professed in a series of

tweets last week that he is confi-

dent Kim “does not want to disap-

point me with a violation of trust.”

The president said the short-

range tests, while potentially a

violation of U.N. Security Council

resolutions, were not covered in a

verbal agreement he struck with

Kim last year to maintain a mora-

torium on tests of long-range mis-

siles and nuclear weapons.

Danny Russel, who served as a

high-level Asia policy official in

the Obama administration, ac-

knowledged that many of the

challenges predate Trump’s elec-

tion. But he called Trump’s ap-

proach to the region “ineffective

and often neglectful” and said

there is a “crisis of confidence

among America’s Asian friends

and allies who are increasingly

vocal about their diminishing

faith in America’s reliability and

resolve.”

Trump has bruised U.S. allies

and partners in his trade war with

China by hitting them with tariffs

as well. His administration also

has pressured other countries to

choose sides on issues ranging

from Chinese infrastructure in-

vestment to sanctions on Chinese

telecom giant Huawei, an unwel-

come prospect for those who rely

on open trade with both of the

world’s top economic powers.

“Countries in the region want

to see an engaged United States

... but they do not want to get
caught in an all-out fight between
the U.S. and China,” s aid Richard
Fontaine, chief executive of the
Center for a New American Secu-
rity who has advised Republican
presidential candidates. “To the
degree that our approach and the
Chinese approach look like an
all-out fight, it’s harder to enlist
countries on our side.”
In p ursuing a trade deal, Trump
has signaled that he is willing to
sacrifice leadership on democracy
and human rights issues. Last
week, for example, Trump seemed
to echo Beijing’s hard-line rheto-
ric about the hundreds of thou-
sands of protesters i n Hong Kong,
referring to the demonstrations
against tightening controls over
the island by Beijing as “riots.”
Trump also praised Xi for act-
ing “very responsibly” despite re-
ports that Hong Kong authorities
have failed to protect protesters
from physical attacks by pro-gov-
ernment groups.
But Bonnie Glaser, a China ana-
lyst at t he Center for Strategic and
International Studies, said Trump
appeared more interested in pre-
serving his relationship with Xi
than in voicing support for the
protesters, a prospect she called
“really problematic” i n the tense
situation in Hong Kong.
Of the trade war, Glaser added:
“Neither side is really interested
in negotiating in earnest on a deal
at t his point. It w ill be in this place
until the election. If anything,
things will get worse.”
[email protected]

Da n Lamothe in Tokyo contributed to

this report.

Cascade of crises in East Asia confronts Trump

Turbulence involves

Pyongyang, Beijing,

Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong

BY GERRY SHIH

beijing — Last month, as run-
ning skirmishes between protest-
ers and police turned downtown
Hong Kong into a battleground, a
red banner strung against gov-
ernment offices read like a warn-
ing emerging from a haze of tear
gas.
“If we burn you burn with us,”
protesters wrote in large white
letters.
That message might as well
have been aimed at Chinese lead-
er Xi Jinping.
With violent protests roiling
Hong Kong’s streets for the 10th
consecutive week, posing the
most serious challenge to the
Communist Party in decades, Xi
appears to be caught with no
good options as he heads into one
of the most politically sensitive
periods of his tenure.
For Xi, an attempt to forcefully
suppress the unrest with the
Chinese military would end
Hong Kong’s s tatus as an interna-
tional financial hub and deal a
serious blow to his ambition of
bringing Taiwan, the self-ruled
island that split from mainland
China in 1949, under Communist
Party control.
In his second appearance in a
week, a top official from China’s
Hong Kong policy office, Yang
Guang, reiterated Tuesday that

Beijing maintained its support

for Hong Kong’s embattled lead-

er, Carrie Lam. Ya ng voiced tough

warnings about the consequenc-

es of violent protests, but he

appeared to play down the pros-

pect of China’s mobilizing the

People’s Liberation Army to quell

the dissent.

Ye t calm in Hong Kong ap-

pears to be more elusive than

ever as the clock runs down on

Beijing’s political calendar. The

Communist Party is preparing

for the 70th anniversary of the

founding of the People’s R epublic

of China, a n event the party p lans

to celebrate this fall with a mas-

sive military parade — and one

that cannot be marred by embar-

rassing hitches, such as scenes of

defiant protests in a major city.

If “our Pearl of the Orient” —

as Chinese state media called

Hong Kong in a recent propa-

ganda push — were to still be

seized by protests and strikes on

China’s National Day, Oct. 1, it

would directly undermine Xi’s

narrative that a strong Commu-

nist Party under his muscular

leadership is leading the Chinese

people toward greatness and uni-

ty.

“On the one hand, Xi can’t let

this drag on too long — he is

pursuing the so-called China

Dream to make China great

again,” said Warren Sun, an ex-

pert on Chinese politics at Mo-

nash University in Australia. “On

the other hand, he needs to be

very careful because the interna-

tional world, including Trump

and Ta iwan, are watching to see

if he mishandles things.”

Along with the trade war with

Washington, the predicament of

how to manage Hong Kong, Sun

said, will p robably h ead the agen-

da at the Communist Party lead-

ership’s secret annual meetings

at t he Beidaihe resort t his m onth.

With the clock ticking, Beijing

appears to be stuck in a holding

pattern, even though its officials

and state media have steadily

dialed up nationalist rhetoric

and sounded alarms about the

“black hand” of the CIA orches-

trating the chaos in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s government and

police, said Yang, the policy offi-

cial, are “completely capable of

protecting law and order” by

themselves.

Still, Yang appeared to strike a

restrained note days after the

Chinese army garrison in Hong

Kong released a provocative vid-

eo showing soldiers training to

put down civil unrest. On Tues-

day, mainland police in the Chi-

nese tech hub of Shenzhen, just

across the border from Hong

Kong, released a similar video

showing forces training to sup-

press rioters w earing y ellow hard

hats — something seen on the

streets of Hong Kong.

In recent days, too, Hong Kong

police have showed a waning

tolerance for the protests and

have significantly increased their

use of force.

At numerous spots around the

city Monday, rallies held along-

side a general strike descended

into chaos. Police said Tuesday

that they had used 800 canisters

of tear gas, fired 140 rubber

bullets and launched other pro-

jectiles to deal with demonstra-

tors the previous day. They had

fired 1,000 canisters in the past

seven weeks, between June 9 and

Aug. 4, before Monday’s protests.

Police also arrested 148 people

Monday, the biggest single-day

roundup since t he protests began

some two months ago.

China promised Hong Kong a

high degree of autonomy when it

regained sovereignty over the

territory from Britain in 1997.

But many in Hong Kong are

voicing anger at Beijing’s steady

encroachment and increasing as-

sertiveness in Hong Kong affairs.

The political crisis in the city

was sparked by now-suspended

plans to allow extraditions to

mainland China. But it has

grown into a wider movement

against Beijing’s authoritarian-

ism, with demands for greater

democracy and investigations

into police violence toward pro-

testers.

Meanwhile, memories of Chi-

na’s Tiananmen Square crack-

down in 1989 run deep in Hong

Kong, the only place in China’s

territory where the hundreds of

deaths are publicly commemo-

rated each June.

Kwei-bo Huang, vice dean of

international affairs at the Na-

tional ChengChi University in

Ta iwan, said Xi is highly hesitant

to use force in Hong Kong be-

cause it would wreak havoc on

his efforts to persuade the Ta i-

wanese people to embrace China

under a deal that would promise

the island a level of autonomy.

But Beijing is also under pres-

sure to restore order.

“Xi is in a dilemma,” Huang

said. “Does he want violent pro-

tests in Hong Kong distracting

people from the so-called great

achievements of the People’s Re-

public on its 70th anniversary?”

Xi could offer some sort of

political compromise or crack

down forcefully in Hong Kong,

but he would have to do it soon,

Huang said.

“Whatever impact cannot lead

to anything bad for Xi’s big Oct. 1

ceremony,” he said.

[email protected]

Sh ibani Mahtani in Hong Kong

contributed to this report.

To quell Hong Kong protests, China has few good options

VIVEK PRAKASH/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Police officers pass signs and posters outside the Hong Kong government headquarters on July 2. Demonstrators have been protesting China’s authoritarianism for weeks.

BY SAYED SALAHUDDIN

kabul — Taliban militants an-

nounced Tuesday that they intend

to disrupt Afghanistan’s p residen-

tial campaign and Sept. 28 polls.

Their statement came just hours

after U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad

reported “excellent progress” dur-

ing talks with the insurgents in

Qatar.

The Ta liban urged voters to

stay away from election-related

events, saying it did not want to

harm them. Amid security fears

after a bomb and gun attack

July 28 killed 20 people at the

Kabul office of one vice presiden-

tial candidate, Afghan media re-

ported that another candidate

had canceled a rally planned for

Monday near the capital.

In a statement on its website,

the Ta liban said the elections

would have “no legitimacy” be-

cause the country is “under occu-

pation.” It called the elections

“a ploy to deceive the common

people” and said the “ultimate

decision-making power” l ies with

foreigners who it said are running

the process.

The Ta liban warning seemed

likely to further slow the pace of

campaigning. The elections have

already been delayed twice be-

cause of poor management and

bickering within President Ashraf

Ghani’s government.

Many Afghans think the vote

may be postponed again because

of the acceleration of talks be-

tween the Ta liban and U.S. offi-

cials, although Ghani, who is

seeking reelection, has said he is

determined that it be held on

schedule. In addition to the presi-

dential vote, delayed parliamen-

tary elections are scheduled to be

held in embattled Ghazni prov-

ince.

In a statement Tuesday, G hani’s

office said that Afghans “will at-

tend the poll centers and cast

their vote to directly elect their

future leader and to disgrace the

enemies of their freedom.” A

spokesman for t he Interior Minis-

try said the government will use

all of its resources to protect “the

candidates and the election proc-

ess.”

In its statement, the Ta liban

alluded positively to the peace

talks, saying that “negotiations

are underway to bring an end to

the occupation and arrangements

for intra-Afghan understanding

are being put into place.” The

elections, the group said, are

aimed only at “satisfying the ego

of a limited number of sham poli-

ticians.”

Combining expressions of con-

cern and threats, the Taliban said

that to “prevent losses... from

being i ncurred b y our fellow com-

patriots, they must stay away

from gatherings and rallies that

could become potential targets.”

Ta liban insurgents have at-

tacked previous elections, caus-

ing two provinces to suspend vot-

ing in parliamentary polls last

year. No g roup claimed t he July 28

attack at the office of Amrullah

Saleh, a former intelligence chief

who is running on Ghani’s ticket,

but he publicly blamed the Tali-

ban.

Amnesty International, the

London-based rights group, con-

demned the Ta liban’s threat

against election rallies. That

“demonstrates a chilling disre-

gard for human life,” Amnesty

said in a statement. “A fghans

must be allowed to exercise their

rights.”

U.S. officials have said they

hope to conclude a peace agree-

ment with the Ta liban by early

September, in part so that elec-

tions c an take place. But they have

also said they place an equally

high priority on both processes.

President Trump said recently

that he hoped to see American

troops leave Afghanistan before

the U.S. presidential election in

2020, but many Afghans have ex-

pressed concern that a hasty

troop departure would give too

much power to the insurgents.

The Ta liban has insisted on a

U.S. timetable to withdraw all

troops before it will meet with

Afghan officials. But Khalilzad,

who heads the U.S. peace negotia-

tion team, has repeatedly said

that the withdrawal will be based

on the Ta liban meeting condi-

tions.

In a tweet Tuesday, he said he

spent the past several days in

Qatar “focused on the remaining

issues in completing a potential

deal with the Taliban that would

allow f or a conditions-based troop

withdrawal” f rom Afghanistan.

“We have made excellent prog-

ress,” Khalilzad said.

[email protected]

Pa mela Constable in Islamabad,

Pakistan, contributed to this report.

Taliban

warns it

will attack

election