JULY 08, 2019 News the Newsbehind 23
indiaintheinternationalkaleidoscope“Th ere are key thresholds to watch
out for. Will India be ready to upgrade
the Quad — a security consultative
forum among India, the US, Japan
and Australia — to a ministerial, or
even summit level? Would it be ready
to multilateralise the separate bilateral
security arrangements it has with each of
its partners in the Quad? To begin with,
would it be ready to invite Australia to
join in the Malabar multilateral naval
exercises it has with the US and Japan?
Will it be possible to insulate such
security arrangements from the diffi cult
and longstanding economic and trade
issues which continue to beset Indo-US
ties? Th ese will be the diffi cult choices
Modi will need to ponder as he seeks to
position India in a fl uid international
landscape.”
US-IRAN CONFRONTATION:
INDIA SHOULD USE ITS
SOFT POWER
Diff erences over Iran need to be
explained further for a US, Iran confl ict
will have repercussion beyond the
region and beyond it.
The central question for India,
according to TCA Raghavan (retired
diplomat and currently director general
of the Indian Council of World
Aff airs), is how to navigate through
the countervailing positions of US and
Iran and “protect its own interests.
Maintaining good relations with Iran
and prioritising our energy security
is one pole. Th e other is balancing
this with our vital stakes with the
Arabian Gulf states and the US. Th e
current situation refl ects the dilemmas
India faces in the absence of a larger
cooperative framework among the
countries in the Arabian Sea littoral,
which is home to so many of our vital
interests.”
Vikram S Mehta (chairman and
senior fellow, Brookings India) suggests
India should use the “quiet power of
diplomacy”. India, he writes “has long-
standing historical and cultural links
with the Middle East and in particular
with Iran. Prime Minister Narendra
Modi has enhanced international stature
because of his massive electoral victory
and strong personal relations with his
counterparts in the area. And Foreign
Minister S Jaishankar is a superb and
world-class diplomat. Together, this
makes for a rare combination of ‘soft’,
‘smart’ and ‘quiet’ power. India should
deploy this combination towards one
objective. To persuade Iran to revert
to its original position of remaining
within the framework of the JCPOA
(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)
and to deny the hardliners on the
American side the raison d’etre for
escalation.”COMMENT
US-IRAN CONFRONTATION
WILL HIT INDIA: NEED
FOR SOME CLASSICAL
DIPLOMACY
Amb K P Fabian (retd)
It has been disappointing to see the
trend of reportage and commentary
over the US-Iran confrontation, which
has the potential to escalate into a war,
with frightful implications for Iran,
the Gulf region, India, the US and
the world economy. It was shocking
to hear a retired diplomat ask: Why
should India put all its eggs in the Iran
basket? Of course, it is not a question
of putting our eggs in the Iranian basket
or in the American one. It is important
to understand the origins of this
confrontation, the merits and demerits
on either side, the likely scenarios, the
likely impact on India, and last, but not
the least, what India can and should
do to prevent aggravation leading to a
regional confl agration.
Till the 1979 Revolution, Iran,
under Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi,
as the closest ally of the US in theregion after Israel, administered the Pax
Americana there. Post-Revolution Iran
under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
and the US under President Jimmy
Carter were prepared to work together.
Carter’s National Security Adviser
Zbigniew Brzezinski met Iran’s Prime
Minister Mehdi Bazargan in Algiers
on November 1, 1979 and agreed to
work together. However, Bazargan
wanted Washington to send the Shah
back to Iran for trial. Th e decision to
let the Shah into the US was taken by
Carter against the advice of Secretary
of State Cyrus Vance. Brzezinski
rejected the demand and talks ended
inconclusively. Within 72 hours, the
US Embassy in Tehran was taken
over by Iranian revolutionaries. Th e
hostages were released 444 days later,
after Carter lost the election to Ronald
Reagan. Ever since the takeover of the
embassy, Washington has imposed
sanctions on Iran and treated it as an
enemy state. Naturally, Iran has paid
back in the same coin, calling America
“Great Satan”.
As Iran under President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad (2005-2013) pursued
uranium enrichment for “defensive
purposes”, the European powers and
the US wanted to come to an agreement
with Iran to limit its enrichment activi-
ties and production of heavy water. Th e
JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action) fi nalized in 2015 between Iran
and the P5, plus EU and Germany, pro-
vided for an intrusive inspection by the
International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) to prevent Iran from making
a bomb. President Barack Obama dis-
regarded the objections of Israel and
Saudi Arabia, both of whom wanted to
keep Iran as a pariah state forever.
President Donald Trump walked
out of the JCPOA on May 8, 2018.
As a candidate he told his supporters
Obama had entered into a ‘very bad
agreement’. However, as president,
he did not ask his National Security