political2 News the Newsbehind JULY 08, 2019T
he high regard which sections of
the media have for the Narendra
Modi government was evident
from the picturization of the fi nance
minister, Nirmal Sitharaman, as Goddess
Lakshmi, the Hindu deity of wealth,
on the eve of her presentation of the
budget.
But will the goddess be bounteous
enough to lead the country towards the
goal of becoming a $ 5 trillion economy
in the next fi ve years? Or, is the target
typical of the present government, which
likes to talk big but is unable to fulfi l all
the promises.
Even then, the reason for the BJP’s
comfortable victory in this year’s
general election was the expectation
that the government would complete
the unfi nished developmental tasks of
its fi rst fi ve years.
Th at much remains to be done is
evident from the high unemployment
rate and continuing agrarian distress.
Th e government apparently intends to
meet this challenge by reaching a eight
per cent growth rate, which is expected to
set off what has been called a virtual cycle
of growth, investment and exports.
It is open to question, however,
whether the economy is capable of
meeting this target. Critics of the
government will tend to say that the
government is persisting with its familiar
tactic of setting goals rather than showing
any major tangible achievement.
Th ere have been no “big bang” reforms
which alone can make a diff erence to the
employment scene. Disinvestment of the
public sector units has been promised,
but after the disheartening experience of
trying to sell Air India, one will have to
wait to see whether any concrete steps
are taken.
All that has been done since 2014
has been in micro-economic front with
the provisions of cooking gas, electricity,
houses with toilets, opening of bank
accounts, health insurance et al.
But as long as the problem
of joblessness is not tackled, the
disillusionment of the educated middle
class is bound to grow. In the last
election, the middle class evidently
decided to give the government another
chance. But it cannot be expected to do
so again after fi ve years.
Th e government’s political problems,
therefore, because of a sluggish economy
will not end in a hurry. Its only solace
is that the opposition is too weak – and
has become even weaker after its defeat- to take advantage of the government’s
failures.
Both sides are playing, therefore,
some kind of a waiting game. While the
government will hope that the economy
will start showing signs of life with all the
incentives which Nirmal Sitharaman is
promising, the opposition will be less
optimistic because of the belief that
economic revival cannot take place in
an atmosphere of social and communal
tension.
Th at the prime minister is aware of
the tension is evident from his reachout
to the Muslims with the promise to earn
their vishwas (trust) and his admonition
to those party members who have
indulged in wanton acts of violence like
the son of a senior BJP leader in Madhya
Pradesh.
Although there have been no major
communal riots, the Muslims continue
to live in fear as the roaming saff ron
gangs pick on isolated individuals, asking
them to say, Jai Shri Ram, and beating
them up even if they comply.
Th is is not a country which will see
a large infl ow of foreign investment.
Even domestic industrialists will be
wary of sinking their money in the
country, which is why some of them
have chosen to invest outside India. If
the government is able to reverse the
trend, it will be a major achievement.
But, for the time being, one has to keep
one’s fi ngers crossed.
Where the opposition parties are
concerned, they may continue to carp
but cannot expect to move forward
in their present state of disarray. Th e
Congress, for instance, doesn’t even have
a president at the moment following
the resignation of Rahul Gandhi from
the post to take responsibility for the
party’s dismal performance in the last
general election.
Of the other parties, the partnership
of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan
Samaj Party in U.P. has fallen apart amid
acrimony. In West Bengal, Mamata
Baneree is palpably under pressure from
the BJP’s rising infl uence based on the
perception that she has been kowtowing
to the Muslims far too much.
Even in the states where the
opposition parties are in power as in
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
and Chhattisgarh, they have not done
anything which will inspire confi dence
in their ability to pose as an eff ective
alternative to the Modi government.
On the contrary, there are even
indications that some of them may not
be able to hold on to power for long,
especially in Karnataka where the two
allies-the Janata Dal (S) and the Congress- appear to be forever at loggerheads.
Only Punjab is relatively stable as is
Puducherry although it is too small to
make an impact at the national level.
But unless the Congress and the other
opposition parties are able to settle
down after their drubbing in the last
election and prepare for the future, the
Modi government will have an easy
time.
WILL THE GODDESS OF WEALTH
SMILE ON THE BJP?
indianpoliticalmainstream polityopinion
AMULYA
GANGULI