The Economist Asia Edition – July 27, 2019

The EconomistJuly 27th 2019 Leaders 9

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I

n recentdaysheatwaveshaveturnedswathesofAmericaand

Europeintofurnaces.Despitetheaccompanyingblastofhead-

lines,the implicationsofsuch extremeheatare oftenover-

looked orunderplayed. Spectacular imagesofhurricanesor

floodsgrab attentionmorereadily, yetheatwavescan cause

moredeaths.Heatisoneofclimatechange’sdeadliestmanifes-

tations.Sometimesitsimpactisunmistakable—aheatwavein

Europein 2003 isestimatedtohaveclaimed70,000lives.More

often,though,heatwavesaretreatedlikethetwointheNether-

landsin2018.Injustoverthreeweeks,around 300 morepeople

diedthanwouldnormallybeexpectedatthattimeofyear.This

wasdismissedasa “minorrise”byofficials.Buthadthosepeople

diedina flood,it wouldhavebeenfront-pagenews.

Thehavoccausedbyextremeheatdoesnot

gettheattentionitmeritsforseveralreasons.

Thedeathstendtobemorewidelydispersedand

donotinvolvethedevastationofpropertyasdo

theravagesofwindandwater.Moreover,deaths

are not usually directly attributable to heat-

stroke.Soaringtemperaturesjustturnpre-exist-

ingconditionssuchasheartproblemsorlung

diseaselethal.

Heatwaveswillinevitablyattractmoreattentionastheybe-

comemorefrequent.Asgreenhousegasescontinuetoaccumu-

lateintheatmosphere,notonlywilltemperaturesriseoverall

butextremesofheatwilloccurmorefrequently(seeSciencesec-

tion).Britain’sMetOfficecalculatesthatbythe2040sEuropean

summersashotasthatof 2003 couldbecommonplace,regard-

lessofhowfastemissionsarereduced.Urbanisationintensifies

therisktohealth:citiesarehotterplacesthanthesurrounding

countryside,andmorepeoplearemovingintothem.

Thegoodnewsisthatmostfatalitiesareavoidable,ifthree

setsofmeasuresareputinplace.First,peoplemustbemade

awarethatextremeheatcankillandwarningsystemsestab-

lished.Heatwavescanbepredictedwithreasonableaccuracy,

whichmeanswarningscanbegiveninadvanceadvisingpeople

tostayindoors,seekcoolareasanddrinkplentyofwater.Smart

useofsocialmediacanhelp.In 2017 a campaignonFacebook

warningofthedangersofa heatwaveinDhaka,Bangladesh’s

capital,reached3.9mpeople,nearlyhalfthecity’spopulation.

Second,coolshadedareasandfreshwatershouldbemade

available.Inpoorplaces,air-conditionedcommunitycentres

andschoolscanbekeptopenpermanently(steamynightsthat

providenorelieffromscorchingdayscanalsokill).InCape

Town,sprayparkshavebeeninstalledtohelppeoplecooldown.

Third,newbuildingsmustbedesignedtoberesilienttothe

threatofextremeheatandexistingonesadapted.Whitewalls,

roofsortarpaulins,andextravegetationincities,allofwhich

helppreventheatfrombuildingup,canbepro-

vided fairly cheaply. Aprogramme toinstall

“coolroofs”andinsulationinPhiladelphiare-

ducedmaximumindoortemperaturesby1.3 ̊C.

It isa cruelironythat,aswithothereffectsof

climatechange,theplacesthatarehardesthit

byheatwavescanleastaffordtoadapt.Inpoor

countries,whereclimatesareoftenhotterand

morehumid,public-healthsystemsareweaker

andpreoccupiedwithotherthreats.Often,adaptationtoex-

tremeheatisdonebycharitiesif it isdoneatall.Particularatten-

tionshouldbepaidtoreachingbothremoteareasanddensely

populatedurbanones,includingslumswheresmalldwellings

withtinroofspackedtogetherworsenthedangerthatuncom-

fortablyhightemperatureswillbecomelethal.

Adaptationisnotanalternativetocuttingemissions;both

arenecessary.Butevenifnetemissionsarereducedtozerothis

century,thepersistenceofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere

meansthatheatwaveswillcontinuetogetworsefordecadesto

come.Asthemercuryrises,governmentsinrichandpoorcoun-

triesalikemustdomoretoprotecttheirpopulationsfromthis

veryrealandquietlydeadlyaspectofclimatechange. 7

Hot as hell

Climate change is already killing people. Countries must learn to adapt to extreme heat

Heatwaves

U

sually thepre-eminence of the dollar is a source of pride

for whoever occupies the White House. But for weeks Presi-

dent Donald Trump has been grumbling about the consequences

of its status and its current strength. He sees other countries’

trade surpluses with America as evidence of a “big currency ma-

nipulation game” (see Finance section). He has dropped hints

that it is a game that America ought to play, too. If that hurts for-

eign holders of dollars, so be it.

So far this is mostly a war of words, but it could easily escalate

into something worse. If America concludes that its trade part-

ners are using unfair tricks to weaken their currencies, it may

claim the right to do the same. There is even speculation that di-

rect intervention to weaken the dollar might be countenanced. A

cold-eyed assessment says this would involve lots of trouble for

at best a transient benefit. It would also undermine one of Amer-

ica’s key assets—its open capital markets.

Many of the conditions for a currency war are in place. The

world economy is sluggish. The imfthis week revised down fur-

ther its forecasts for gdpgrowth in 2019. Interest rates in the rich

world are low and cannot fall much lower. There are real or imag-

ined constraints on the use of fiscal stimulus. As a result, a cheap

currency is one of the few ways left to gin up the economy.

Do not escalate

The costs to America of intervening to weaken the dollar are greater than the short-term benefits

Currency wars