by Pranay SharmaT
he use of ‘oil as a weapon’ by the Gulf and North
African nations in early 1970s had forced the world
to pay heed to ‘energy security’ and take urgent
steps to build oil reserves in their respective coun-
tries. But if future conflicts are mainly going to be
over water, how will most countries respond?
Fortunately, that prediction of doomsday pundits has so
far not come true. Despite the outbreak of conflicts at regu-
lar intervals, the focus of warring parties has not been lim-
ited to water. As experts point out, though many conflicts
involve water, it is rarely their sole motivation.
Yet, water as a weapon of war has been used many times in
the past, as did China in 1938 by breaching dykes along the
Yellow River to check the advancing Japanese army, or more
recently in Somalia, when al-Shabab terrorists, acc ording to
reports, diverted water of the Jubba river, forcing government
soldiers to take shelter on higher ground and be ambushed.
In recent years, leaders in India too, have twice toyed
with the idea of using water as a weapon against Pakistan
by either stopping or diverting the water from the Indus—
the lifeline of Punjab and Sind—or by abrogating the Indus
Water Treaty that had been in place since 1960, to force theneighbour mend its recalcitrant ways on using terrorism as
a tool against India. It has refrained from doing so thus far.
The first was in 2016, when PM Narendra Modi asserted
that “blood and water” cannot flow together in the wake of
the terrorist attacks at the military camp in Uri. India once
again came close to disrupting the flow of the Indus into
Pakistan after the Jaish-e-Mohammed strike in Pulwama
against the CRPF convoy that killed 40 jawans. India opted
for a military strike against Pakistan on both occasions.
But responding to terror attacks from Pakistan-based
groups with military strikes is also fraught with the danger
of a full-fledged war between the two nuclear-armed
neighbours and poses its own challenge. Thus the option
of using water as an instrument to counter terrorist stri kes
remains with New Delhi. How and when it is to be used is a
topic of speculation among Indian strategic thinkers.
If India were to use the Indus waters as a tool against
Pakistan, it would have a devastating effect not only on the
western neighbour, millions of whose people are depend-
ent on it for their daily survival, such a move will have a
seismic effect on the region. Most importantly, it will create
a precedent that can easily be used by China, from where
most rivers in South Asia originate. In addition, countries
like Nepal, which is an upper riparian country in relation toA gurgle knows no borders
Rivers sustain humanity. Common waters must be fairly shared among nations.
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44 OutlOOk 5 August 2019
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