Fortune - USA (2020-01)

(Antfer) #1
the governance systems of
both the public and private
sectors, and how they
relate to one another.

How optimistic are you that we
can get there?
In 2019, we celebrated
the 50th anniversary of
going to the moon, which
was basically a massive
technological feat. Reflect-
ing on that gives me hope.
Humanity did something
pretty extraordinary. Now
think about the Apollo 11
mission. Apollo was not
a left-wing or right-wing
mission. It definitely was
bipartisan, and it involved
the public and private
sectors. There were many
companies, like Honeywell,
Motorola, General Electric,
that were fundamental in
getting us to the moon—
with, of course, the massive
directional power provided
by NASA and the govern-
ment. That’s the kind of ar-
rangement we need today.


Your ideas have been cited by
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio
and freshman Democratic Rep.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. How
do you get both the right and
left to listen?
I’ve learned that as long
as you’re talking about the
long run and risk-taking,
entrepreneurship, creativity,
wealth creation—in a way
that really brings in both
business and the public
sector—it ends up being a
bipartisan narrative.


Economist MARIANA MAZZU-
CATO is the founding director of
the University College London
Institute for Innovation and
Public Purpose.

A New Age of
Economics Is
Dawning

T


HE POWER of narra-
tives in driving eco-
nomic events will be
studied more. Economics will
become less mechanical—more
attention to storytelling and
changing popular ideas. And it
will give impetus toward trying
to manipulate and manage
narratives. This is something
politicians do instinctively.
Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933
said the only thing you have
to fear is fear itself. That’s just
one example. But before him, in
the 1920s, Calvin Coolidge was
always boosting the market. He
thought that was the right thing
for a President to do: instill
confidence. But maybe not, be-
cause it ended badly with 1929
and the Great Depression.
Certain narratives are
recurrent. Aristotle intro-
duced the idea that machines
might replace jobs over 2,000
years ago. Now we’re hearing
that again. Automation is a
buzzword from the 1950s. In
fact, one downturn in 1957–58
was called an “automation
recession” by some. In terms of
today’s narrative, I think there is
danger of a serious contraction,
like we had 10 years ago. The
stock market has reached new
records, so some people are
worried. But a lot of economic
indicators remain strong. It’s
a split. Nobody knows exactly
what’s coming. It’s like 1929.
Nothing in the air strongly sug-
gested that change was com-
ing—and suddenly it came.

Nobel Prize winner ROBERT J.
SHILLER is Sterling professor
of economics at Yale.

A ‘Gold Standard’ of Digital
Currencies Will Emerge

BY KLAUS SCHWAB


O


VER THE NEXT DECADE there’s the potential
for an entirely new form of money, “stablecoin.”
If achieved, it could help include the world’s
unbanked population and ensure a more stable financial
system for all. Experimentation with blockchain in financial
services has already led to the development of digital
currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. But these remain
ineffective and have proved prone to major fluctuations
and misuse. Moreover, they are still hard to use in daily life,
with few retailers accepting them as a form of payment.
Libra, proposed by Facebook and backed by a consortium
of other firms, conceptually might overcome some of
those hurdles: It would be easy to use via a digital wallet on
Facebook and would be stabilized by pegging it to a reserve
basket of currencies (for more, see the feature story in
this issue). But a “gold standard” of digital currencies
has not emerged—yet. The real opportunity lies in major
guarantors of the financial system, such as central banks
and governments, committing to a supranational form of
money. Such new currency could facilitate international
payments and include those people and small businesses
that are currently unbanked in the financial system.
Indeed, the real promise lies not in New York, London,
Singapore, or Tokyo, where most people and businesses
already have ample ways to conduct business and transfer
money. It lies in helping those who are unbanked in coun-
tries like India, Indonesia, Ethiopia, or the DRC. A stablecoin
could make financial inclusion real. It would represent the
new frontier of money. There has not been anything as
exciting since Bretton Woods.

KL AUS SCHWAB is the founder and executive chairman of
the World Economic Forum.

BY ROBERT


SHILLER


ILLUSTRATION BY BENEDETTO CRISTOFANI

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