◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek January 27, 202034
PHOTOGRAPHS BY TIM GRUBER FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK (16)The good news for Bernie Sanders arrived during
a Jan. 10 Iowa snowstorm so severe that cars and
trucks were abandoned along the highway and
his campaign had to cancel the day’s events. Just
before 6 p.m., Sanders’s campaign manager, Faiz
Shakir, got a phone call alerting him that Sanders
had edged into a narrow lead in the influential Des
Moines Register/CNN Iowa poll set to be released
minutes later. Other polls showed a similarly close
race, some with different leaders. But all suggested
that with three weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses,
Sanders was poised to do something almost no one
thought possible after he suffered a heart attack
three months ago: win Iowa.
The next morning’s Register carried a banner
front-page headline (“SANDERS AHEAD”) and photo
illustration of the top tier hurtling down a snowy
hill crammed into a toboggan, arranged in the order
of their poll performance: Sanders in the lead with
20%, followed by Elizabeth Warren (17%), Pete
Buttigieg (16%), and Joe Biden (15%). Later that day,
Sanders led a rally in Newton, Iowa, and although
he found time to remark on the frigid weather and
blast Donald Trump, he stuck to his familiar script
and didn’t acknowledge his new front-runner status:
“We are here to transform this country and create
a government and an economy that works for all of
us, not just the 1%.”
After losing to Hillary Clinton in a razor-close
Iowa caucus four years ago, Sanders now sees
his path to victory in expanding turnout beyond
caucus regulars to pull in more independents
and new voters who disproportionately support
him. “I hope what the poll does is give those who
don’t often vote or go to a caucus a reason to get
involved,” Shakir says. “For those who are wonder-
ing ‘Does Bernie have a shot to win?’ the answer is
yes, he does have a shot to win. That will hopefully
inspire people who might otherwise stay home on
a cold night in February to come out and caucus.”
A Sanders win in Iowa would still be considered
an upset. While he consistently ranks in the top
tier of candidates in both early-state and national
polls, his support is thought to be intense but lim-
ited. In the Register poll, 59% of his supporters say
they’ll definitely caucus for him, a level well above
his rivals; but voters view Warren more favorably
(70%, vs. 65% for Sanders). And when first and sec-
ond choices are combined—a key figure, since can-
didates must meet a 15% threshold to be viable in
the caucus—Warren narrowly beats Sanders, 33%
to 32%, with Buttigieg (31%) just behind.
But Sanders has several advantages that are diffi-
cult to gauge. They include a hyperdedicated volun-
teer operation and a proven ability to mint money.His campaign raised $96 million last year from more
than 1 million donors, including $34.5 million in the
fourth quarter. He’s better equipped than anyone
in the field to fund a strong campaign through the
spring and, if necessary, into the convention in July.
He’s also been trending up in all the Iowa polls,
even those he doesn’t lead—a sign that he may have
momentum in the race.
Sanders’s strength hasn’t generated the kind of
alarm on Wall Street and among the Democratic
establishment that Warren did when she shot to the
top of the Register poll in September. That’s largely
because most political analysts and campaign strat-
egists still don’t believe he can win. “Virtually no
one on Wall Street thinks that Sanders could win the
general election—partly because of his age, partly
because his agenda is so radical and uncompromis-
ing,” says Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at
AFG Investments.
Doubts about Sandersalso linger fromhis
Octoberheartattack,whichraisedquestionsabout
whetherhe’devenbeabletocontinue—concerns
initially shared by members of his campaign. “Iwasoutherea fewdaysafterhisheartattack,”
saidRepresentativeRoKhannaofCalifornia,co-
chairman of Sanders’s presidential campaign, while
backstage at an Iowa City climate rally on Jan. 12.
“That was the point of greatest uncertainty for the
campaign. But what I saw was 30 or 40 people at
each of the stops coming out and willing to knock on
doors and continue on. That’s when I realized that
what he had built was so durable, so resilient, that
it’s put him in the position that he’s in right now.”
The remaining time leading up to the Feb. 3
caucus will test that durability. Already this cycle,
Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg have each taken a
turn as Iowa front-runner. Barack Obama proved▲ Sanders is newly
on the attack against
Warren▼DesMoinesRegister
Democraticprimary poll
Sanders
Warren
Buttigieg
Biden30%20 %10 %0 %
12/2018 1/2020