Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-12-23)

 POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek December 23, 2019

provideslittlepredictiveclarity.Themostrecent

pollinthestate,releasedonDec. 10 byWHDH

7News/EmersonCollege,foundBiden(23%),

Sanders(22%),andButtigieg(18%)clusteredat

thetopwithinthemarginoferror(+/-5.4%).The

RealClearPoliticsIowapollingaveragefavors

Buttigieg(22.5%),Sanders(19.3%),and(Biden18%),

withWarren(16.3%)instrikingdistance.

Oneironyoftheimpeachmentsagahastodo

withitsorigininTrump’sattempt,throughUkraine,

toimpugnandweakenBiden,a likelygeneralelec-

tionrival.Sofar,theformervicepresident’sstat-

ureamongDemocratshasn’tfallen.Infact,asthe

trialgetsrolling,it’sBiden’skeyrivalswithdayjobs

intheSenatewhowilllikelyincura cost.Atleast

inIowa,thatcouldwindupgivinghima small—

butperhapsdecisive—advantage.—JoshuaGreen,

withSahilKapur

MichaelBloomberg,founderandmajorityownerof

BloombergLP,BloombergNews’parent,isseeking

theDemocraticpresidentialnomination.

○ ForAngelaMerkel,thechancesofremainingin

chargearelessbadthanbefore

The Chancellor Stays

In the Picture

BLOOMBERG

(7)

AngelaMerkel’sfuturehascausedGermanymuch

angst.HerownChristianDemocrats(CDU)spent

muchoflastyearinturmoiloverwhoshouldsuc-

ceedherattheendofherexpected16-yearreign

aschancellor.Thenthismonth,herjuniorcoalition

partner,theSocialDemocrats(SPD),electeda duoof

leftistleaderswhoquestionkeytenetsoftheCDU’s

governingphilosophy.

NoneofthislooksgreatforMerkel.Andyetthe

65-year-oldformerphysicistremainshugelypop-

ular,bothinsideandoutsidethecountry.Muchof

thepoliticalestablishmentinGermanyandEurope

wantsa seasonedleaderinchargewhenBerlin

assumesthepresidencyoftheEuropeanUnioninthe

secondhalfof2020.AndMerkelherselfhassaidshe

doesn’twanttogoanywhere.Despiteappearancesto

thecontrary,thechancelloris well-positionedtoride

outthenexttwoyearsinwhateverwayshewants.

For one, the CDU and its sister party, the

Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, could still

work out a revised coalition agreement with the

SPD. Should that fail, Merkel faces two possible sce-

narios: snap elections, or, more likely, governing in

the minority. Parliament already approved the 2020

budget, and she still has support there from more

moderate SPD lawmakers and from the Greens,

who are weighing a potential future alliance with

the CDU, which would give her room to maneuver

even without a majority.

Despite the energy coming from the formerly

sidelined socialist wing of the party, the SPD is

hardly negotiating from a position of strength. At

the party convention in early December, it sad-

dled its new leaders with a list of concessions to

extract from Merkel as a condition of their remain-

ing in government, including a 30% increase

to attend the Senate trial means a good number

of the candidates will be absent from Iowa in the

critical weeks before the caucus—at least during

the workweek—when they’d rather be making their

closing pitch. That could be a particular setback

for Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who’s recently

been gaining momentum. Meanwhile, Joe Biden,

Pete Buttigieg, and other non-senators will have

the state to themselves while their rivals are stuck

on Capitol Hill.

“The last place I’d think the senators running

for president would want to be in the weeks before

the Iowa caucuses is tethered to their desks in the

Senate, silently serving as jurors in an impeach-

ment trial, the outcome of which we already know,”

says David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s former chief

strategist. “Iowans want to see the candidates to

close the deal, and I would think all of them are

frustrated by the prospect of missing this crucial

time in the calendar.”

How a high-profile impeachment trial changes

sentiment among Iowa Democrats is anybody’s

guess. Big news events in the recent past have gen-

erally had the effect of freezing the field, but that

THE BOTTOM LINE Rather than reverse Biden’s momentum,

Trump’s attempt to dig up dirt on him may have given the former

vice president an electoral boost, at least in the short term.