OLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek Decemb 201944
On sale in Calgary○TakingcuesfromQuebecandBrexit,someAlbertans
considerbreakingawayCanada
erIt’s not just the Quebecois who sometimes imagine
themselves breaking away from Canada. Ever
since Liberal Justin Trudeau was reelected as
prime minister in October, a small but vocal group
in the oil-rich province of Alberta has worked to
rally support for seceding from the country.
The so-called Wexit movement, named for
Alberta’s location in Western Canada and inspired
by the U.K.’s separation from the European Union,
was on display at a November rally in Calgary,
where most of Canada’s energy companies are
based. The event drew about 1,700 people, some
wearing hats emblazoned with “Make Alberta
Great Again” and “WEXIT.” Speakers, includ-
ing the movement’s co-founder Peter Downing,
addressed local frustrations, painting a picture of
an independent Alberta flush with cash, freed of
the burden of federal taxes, and driven by a boom-
ing oil industry no longer restrained by regula-
tions imposed by eastern elites.
Calgary was a stop on Downing’s post-election
tour. He and others in his organization, which
includes local businesspeople and activists, have
drawn crowds in Edmonton and Red Deer. In just
two months, they’ve managed to harness the
region’s simmering resentments and turn them
into a roiling movement. According to an Abacus
Data poll conducted in the week leading up to the
Calgary rally, about 25% of Albertans would vote
in favor of separation—less than half the support
it would need to put separation proceedings in
motion, but enough to make it more than just a
fringe concern.
Kimball Daniels, a 54-year-old who works in
the construction industry, says he’s long thought
about whether the province should separate
from Canada, but Trudeau’s reelection helpedin the minimum wage and significant new
public investment.
The CDU and CSU have already signaled they’re
in no mood to bend to the party’s demands—CSU
caucus leader Alexander Dobrindt has already
called the SPD agenda a “warmed-up box of social-
ist moth balls” and said that under no circum-
stances would the coalition partners renegotiate
their agreement from March 2018. A final reckon-
ing is still a long way off: Talks won’t begin in ear-
nest until after the yearend holidays, and then
it could be weeks more before the parties make
or break a deal.
To dissolve parliament and call new elections
would require the approval of the president, and
short of a highly unusual attempt by parliament to
install another chancellor, Merkel would have to
propose and lose a confidence vote. For a states-
woman of her stature to bring about her own down-
fall would be unthinkable, says Andrea Römmele,
professor of political communication at the Hertie
School, a Berlin-based university. “To go down in the
annals of history like that—I don’t see it,” she says.
There are reasons why the status quo may pre-
vail. The SPD has been losing support for years,
and abandoning the government would amount
to potentially damaging losses in a snap election.
Based on recent opinion polls, the party’s par-
liamentary caucus could shrink by as much as
30%. Plus, “in the long-run, Germany can’t afford
a minority government,” says Michael Grosse-
Brömer, the CDU/CSU whip. “As a strong indus-
trial nation in the middle of Europe it must be
capable to act.”
While Germany hasn’t been immune to the
rise of the populist, green, and other movements
that have splintered Europe’s political spectrum,
Merkel is a potent reminder that the center still
holds. Weak leadership in Berlin could hamper
a response should the economy—Europe’s larg-
est—turn south. The country just barely avoided a
recession in the third quarter, and though growth
is expected to bounce back at the end of the year,
the central bank cut its 2020 GDP forecast from a
1.2% expansion to just 0.6%.
With pillars of the post-World War II order from
NATO to the World Trade Organization under fire,
the departure of one the most outspoken defend-
ers of multilateralism could have far-reaching
implications. “If one day she isn’t around any-
more,” Grosse-Brömer says, “many will miss her.”
—RaymondColitt,withArneDelfsTHE BOTTOM LINE While there are many scenarios in
which Merkel could stay in power, few involve a strong, stable
government in Berlin.