Thinking, Fast and Slow

(Axel Boer) #1

Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers


“Yes, the studio has had three successful films since the new
CEO took over. But it is too early to declare he has a hot hand.”

“I won’t believe that the new trader is a genius before consulting a
statistician who could estimate the likelihood of his streak being
a chance event.”

“The sample of observations is too small to make any inferences.
Let’s not follow the law of small numbers.”

“I plan to keep the results of the experiment secret until we have a
sufficiently large sample. Otherwisortрxpere we will face pressure
to reach a conclusion prematurely.”
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